JACKSONVILLE (at Oakland):
Blaine Gabbert has 15 stitches in his throwing hand. He's out this week. But that's a good thing for Cecil Shorts III. Shorts should do better -- probably a lot better -- with Chad Henne at quarterback. Downfield throwing ability. That's the difference between those two quarterbacks. Gabbert is a safety-first quarterback who's way too willing to settle for check-down passes underneath. Henne is far more willing to lob a ball downfield to a receiver who may be pretty well covered -- give him a chance to make a play. Look at the last 24 starts for each guy entering this season. Henne has thrown almost twice as many interceptions (32 vs. 17). It's not that he's less accurate; it's that he's willing to take chances. He averaged 227 passing yards per game in those 24 starts, while Gabbert was
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down at 159. Each quarterback handled about half of last season. Gabbert completed a higher percentage (58 to 54), but Henne averaged over 2 more yards per completion and piled up 422 more yards. Circling back to Shorts. When Gabbert started the opener against Kansas City, he went 2 of 10 passing to Shorts, for 16 yards. Henne came into the game and with his first pass connected with Shorts for 24 yards. When Shorts had the streak of four straight games last year with a touchdown, it was with Henne at quarterback. See the difference? Now, as luck would have it, Jacksonville is playing the weakest opponent on its schedule -- Oakland. Andrew Luck went 11 of 12 against this defense when passing for his starting receivers. So here's a chance for Shorts (despite doing very little in an injury-plagued preseason) to get back on track with a big game. In general, we think the logical move is to put Shorts into your fantasy lineup and see what happens. ... As for Henne, well, let's not take it too far. He didn't look particularly strong in the preseason, and he completed 3 of 6 on the last series of the opener. Henne averaged 253 yards per game as a starter last year, but with only 6 TDs in 8 games. He's not a running threat. The odds seem to be heavily stacked against him being a top-20 quarterback this week (and we can't guarantee he'll even be in the top 25). The whole Gabbert-Henne trick didn't work last year in this stadium. Gabbert went 8 of 12 early, with a 42-yard touchdown to Shorts. After he got hurt and Henne came in, the passing game struggled (Henne went 9 of 20 for only 71 yards, with no touchdowns). ... It's a notable game for Maurice Jones-Drew. It was in this stadium last year where his season ended with a foot injury. A pity, with him being from nearby Antioch and having a bunch of family and friends in the crowd. But he gets to try again on Sunday, and it's probably one of the bottom half-dozen run defenses in the league. Vick Ballard (who's hardly Adrian Peterson) averaged 4.8 yards per carry against this defense on Sunday; 13 carries for 63 yards. The Raiders allowed 119 rushing yards per game last season, with 18 TD runs. It's a favorable matchup. Working against Jones-Drew is his role in the offense. It looks like the Jaguars will usually pull him on passing downs. He didn't catch any passes in the opener (2 attempts). Jordan Todman and Justin Forsett combined to catch 7 passes. But in this kind of matchup, Jones-Drew has a reasonable chance of running for something like 80 yards, with probably better than a 50 percent chance of punching one into the end zone. ... Marcedes Lewis might develop into a credible tight end at some point. He had a season with 10 TDs in the not-too-distant past, and his best games last year all came with Chad Henne at quarterback. But Lewis missed most of the preseason with a calf injury, then aggravated the injury and missed the opener. Allen Reisner filled in and caught 3 passes for 31 yards. If later in the week it's certain that Lewis will play and is pretty much healthy, we'll likely slot him as a guy to possibly consider at tight end if you can't find anyone else. ... Please do not forget about Justin Blackmon. He's suspended for three more games. Once he comes back, he'll probably be this team's best wide receiver. With him out, the Jaguars were using (in the opener) Ace Sanders and Mike Brown. Both finished with only 14 receiving yards. Sanders caught only 3 of the 9 passes sent his way. Best that can be argued for those guys is that like Shorts, they might benefit from a shift to a quarterback who's more willing to simply let the football fly. ... Josh Scobee went 3 for 3 on field goals in the last game at Oakland, including a 50-yarder. He's also hit 91 percent of his field goals the last two years. That's 48 of 53, with two of the misses from 55. But we point this out only because we're contractually obligated to do so. Please don't use him this year. Ever. ... The Jaguars Defense is a lesser group. It had a league-low 20 sacks last year. Gus Bradley is trying to get it going. Maybe he can get them out of the bottom 10; we'll see. But this defense has plug-in value this week. Oakland is starting Terrelle Pryor at quarterback, and he's starting only his third game as a pro. He'll make some ill-advised throws, and he'll take sacks while trying to scramble out of trouble. Last week at Indianapolis, he tossed 2 interceptions but took just one sack. He attempted 32 passes in the preseason (so, basically one game's worth of action) and took 4 sacks, with 2 interceptions and a fumble. In his one start last year, he threw an interception but had no sacks or fumbles. So while it's a good situation for Jacksonville, it doesn't look likely we'll see an explosion of sacks and takeaways. We're putting them down for 2 sacks and an interception. The Jaguars look like a bottom-5 team in kick return potential. They've got Will Blackmon returning punts; he scored 2 TDs on punt returns for the Packers in 2008, but that was 5 years ago. Blackmon wasn't even in the league last year -- he was playing Arena ball.
