KANSAS CITY (at Phil.):
Andy Reid in a bright red jacket on the sidelines in Philadelphia. That's weird. But is it an advantage (or disadvantage) for him to coach against the Eagles? In theory, he should be more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of many of Philadelphia's players. Or maybe his new team will put in a little extra effort to help coach win, knowing the game means more to him. Interesting theories to kick around, but they're not supported strongly by the historical numbers. Picking through the archives, we see 16 coaches who have been in similar situations over the years – guys who won over 100 career games who brought in new teams to play at the facility where they became famous.
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Those coaches went 8-7-1 in those games (so maybe a slight advantage, given that home teams are supposed to win about 57 percent of the time).
| Coaches Coming Home | |
|---|---|
| Year | Coach, Score (Opp.) |
| 1970 | Paul Brown, lost 30-27 (Clev.) |
| 1970 | Don Shula, lost 35-0 (Balt.) |
| 1971 | George Allen, won 38-24 (L.A.) |
| 1976 | Hank Stram, won 27-17 (K.C.) |
| 1983 | Don Coryell, lost 44-14 (St.L.) |
| 1989 | Schottenheimer, tie 10-10 (Clev.) |
| 1996 | Bill Parcells, won 23-22 (NYG) |
| 1997 | Bill Parcells, lost 27-24 (N.E.) |
| 1999 | Mike Holmgren, won 27-7 (G.B.) |
| 2001 | Jim Mora Sr., lost 34-20 (N.O.) |
| 2003 | Tony Dungy, won 38-35 (T.B.) |
| 2005 | Norv Turner, won 16-13 (Wash.) |
| 2006 | Tom Coughlin, lost 26-10 (Jac.) |
| 2006 | Dennis Green, lost 31-26 (Minn.) |
The chart leaves out coaches who met their old teams for the first time in home games. But there's enough info there to get a general idea of what's going on. Maybe – maybe – the coach coming home has a small, slight advantage, relative to a typical road game. But we're not putting too much in the Andy-versus-Chip angle or the Andy-comes-home deal. Ultimately, these things come down to players. The Eagles have all kinds of problems on defenses. That's why this is a good matchup for the Kansas City offense. Reid won't necessarily win this game, but his offense should score plenty of points. The over-under on this game is 49.5, which is the second highest of the week (Philadelphia is favored by 3, but it looks more like a pick 'em to us). ... This is a good matchup for Alex Smith. He's not a gunslinger, but this is a soft defense. Philip Rivers sliced this group up for 419 yards and 3 TDs last week. Back in Week 1, Robert Griffin III had a terrible first half but finished with 329 yards and 2 TDs. The Eagles use a hurry-up offense, so there are more plays in their games. Plus they're simply not stopping anyone – San Diego punted only once against them. While it may sound odd (heck, it is odd) Smith has an excellent chance of passing for about 260 yards and 2 TDs, and he's also more mobile than most quarterbacks. He's run 12 times for 82 yards in the first two games. ... Kansas City hasn't really gotten Jamaal Charles going yet, but he's a big-time back. Against this opponent, he could really light it up – as in running for about 100 yards and a touchdown. Like his counterpart, he'll also be heavily involved in the passing game. Charles caught 8 passes for 48 yards and a touchdown last week. ... We're not crazy about Kansas City's wide receivers. They're not heavily involved in the offense. Alex Smith has completed 42 passes so far, and Dwayne Bowe has caught only 4 in each game. Donnie Avery has caught only 2 in each game. So under 20 percent for Bowe, and under 10 percent for Avery. They've each caught a touchdown. But we're ranking them much higher than usual. Philadelphia is really soft in the secondary, and we think this will be a game with a lot of scoring and yards. Malcom Floyd went over 100 yards against Philadelphia in a half last week. ... We like the Kansas City Defense. Michael Vick is mobile, but they'll expose him to some hits. So far, he's been above-average in both sacks (4) and interceptions (none), but he's fumbled twice, and he could be harassed into a meltdown game at some point. Kansas City has 9 sacks and 2 interceptions in its first two – it's improved. And the return teams appear to be in the top 5 in league. Kansas City scored 2 TDs on kickoff returns in the preseason, and Dexter McCluster has had punt returns of 20-plus yards two weeks in a row. (Helped by that punt return ability, McCluster looks like one of the very best No. 3 receivers in the league this week – note that all 5 TD passes allowed by Philadelphia's secondary have gone to backup wide receivers.) ... Anthony Fasano will miss this game with an ankle injury. Sounds like Sean McGrath (cut by the Seahawks a few weeks back) will be the Kansas City tight end this week. McGrath might be surprisingly good – lots of short passing in this offense, and this will be a shootout-type game. McGrath caught 2 passes last week. If your league requires you to start one player that most of the guys in your league haven't even heard of, McGrath looks like a fine choice.
