ATLANTA (vs. New England):
The Falcons let one get away from them in Miami, but their offense moved the ball pretty well in that game. Now they face a defense that's seemingly playing well, but it's benefited greatly from facing the Jets and Buccaneers the last two weeks. At home and in the Sunday night spotlight, we think Atlanta's offense will be fine. ... Matt Ryan should be very good. He's an elite passer, and he's facing an ordinary secondary. The Patriots haven't allowed a 250-yard passer, and have given up just 2 TD passes, but consider who they've faced.
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If you drew up an ideal early-season schedule for a pass defense, it would be difficult to conceive a more favorable one than two rookie quarterbacks and Josh Freeman. New England had a bottom-5 pass defense a year ago and allowed 27 TD passes (better than only 10 teams). Ryan's averaging 303 passing yards in his first three games and has thrown 2 TDs in each one. New England has also long been better defending the run than the pass, and the Falcons (with their current line and running backs) will need to emphasize the pass anyway. Good situation for Ryan. ... Julio Jones is an every-week start type of player. He's averaging 9 receptions for 124 yards per game, with 2 TDs; rather than being put off by extra attention with Roddy White playing on a bum ankle, he's thriving as the clear go-to guy in the offense. New England will no doubt focus its coverage on Jones, but he should be a big part of the team's offensive success. Statistical oddity with Jones: In his last two home games (Week 2 and the playoff loss to San Francisco) he's caught exactly 11 passes for 182 yards in each one, with 3 total touchdowns. As for White, you'd like to think he's closer to full health while playing through a high ankle sprain, but he's put up nearly identical stat lines in each of the first three weeks: 2, 3 and 2 catches for 19, 21 and 16 yards. Ryan is still looking for him around the end zone (White drew a pass interference to set up a short touchdown last week), but until he's fully healthy -- which for White in the past has meant catching 6-7 passes on a weekly basis -- it's difficult to recommend him. His share of the offense is being spread among multiple players, so we have no interest in No. 3 Harry Douglas. If White practices fully all week, we'll upgrade him on Friday; for now, it's stay away. ... Maybe Tony Gonzalez should have retired. He hasn't cleared 40 yards in any of the first three games, and has as many touchdowns (1) as second tight end Levine Toilolo. The last time Gonzalez had three games in a row as quiet as he's started out (the middle of last year), he caught 11 passes and 2 TDs in the fourth. It sure looks, however, like Father Time has finally got his mitts on the 37-year-old, and those modest stat lines will become the norm. ... At running back, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will split time. Rodgers is shiftier and more likely to break a big play, while Snelling is more of a functional, straight-ahead runner, but will probably be more effective around the end zone. Neither player looks like a strong bet to score, with New England long much better defending the run than the pass and having allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns a year ago. Just 1 so far this season, and that was out of a passing formation. Steven Jackson likely will miss two more games. Atlanta has a bye in Week 6, so no point rushing Jackson back before that. Hamstring injuries often linger; it's something that could hamper him even after the bye. ... Matt Bryant missed a costly 35-yard kick against Miami. It's his only miss so far, but the team gave a long look to Jeremy Shelley in the preseason, so we'll put forth the idea that Bryant's leash may be a little shorter this season. ... Gutted by injuries, the Falcons Defense shouldn't have much success off Tom Brady. Straight off the numbers we're looking at 2.3 sacks, but we'll go a little lower than that, and it's unlikely to get more than 1 interception.
