NEW ORLEANS (at Chicago):
The Saints put on a nice show Monday night, but they’re not quite the same outside of their dome. Get them on the road, outside on grass, dealing with crowd noise, and they start to look more mortal. That’s well documented. In playoff games in the Sean Payton Era, for example, they’re 4-0 in the Superdome, but 0-3 on the road. The offense tends to dip. Look, for example, at performance since 2010. At home: 31 points per game, with an average of 3 TD passes (81 in 27 games). On the road: 26.6 points per game, with 2 TDs per game (51 in 25). Not that you can’t start Drew Brees and the boys; they’re still good. During that time period, Brees actually averages 15 more yards (328) on the road versus home.

This report is taken from today's Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings, camp reports for all 32 teams, stat projections, and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend. Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!

But it’s just not quite the out-of-this-world good like you saw Monday night. We see this as a typical road speed bump. The Bears have given up a few more yards and points than expected, but much of that has been self-inflicted. They had interception and kickoff returns against them against Minnesota, and they were plagued by turnovers in Detroit. It’s a good defense. One with the capability to hold the Saints down in the low 20s. ... The Saints aren’t running the ball well, and they’re not really trying. It’s a passing offense. They’ve been under 80 yards in three games, and when they made it up to 104 against Arizona, they picked up 38 cheap yards on their last drive, long after the game was over. The ground game should kick in at some point, but that could be weeks or months away. The offensive line isn’t as good as it’s been in the past. We’re putting them down for about 90 yards, with a 50 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. In their last 25 road games, they’ve averaged 103 rushing yards, with 19 TDs. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles should get most of the playing time, with Khiry Robinson probably mixed in as the third guy. That’s how it played out Monday. Thomas and Sproles seemed to be the primary backs. Robinson got the bulk of his playing time in the second half, when the Saints were way ahead. The Saints also have Mark Ingram, but he’s missed the last two games with a turf toe injury. He didn’t practice at all last week, so it’s iffy at best whether he’ll return for this one. And do the Saints even want him back? Ingram doesn’t really fit their offense; he’s primarily a runner, so it hurts their flexibility when he’s in there -- better to use Sproles and Thomas on draw-type runs when the defense isn’t expecting it. Ingram is averaging only 1.8 yards per carry, and he wasn’t effective in either of his first two seasons. Robinson is just a free agent rookie, but he looks like a better fit with the offense. Only when you include the receiving production do these backs have value. Sproles is probably the best pass-catching running back in the league, while Thomas is quietly on pace to catch 76 passes. For now in our rankings, we’re going to assume Ingram isn’t playing; if he practices this week (making it look more possible he’ll play), Thomas will drop just a little and Ingram will appear about where Robinson is. Sproles (as a pass catcher) is the key guy in this backfield, but as heavily as he was used Monday night, you’ve got to figure the Bears will make stopping him a priority. ... Jimmy Graham is on a tear. He’s averaging 115 yards per game, and he’s caught 6 TDs. Nobody seems to be able to cover him. For this weekend, the only flaw we see is the big picture trend. New Orleans tends to average 50 percent more touchdown passes at home versus the road (3 vs. 2). If you buy into that, that it makes sense to settle for one touchdown for Graham, rather than hoping for 2. Graham has caught 2 TDs five times in the last three years, and all of those games have been at home. ... Strange to say, with Drew Brees on pace to throw 40 touchdowns and break the record for yards in a season, but the wide receivers tend to be just decoys. Well, not Marques Colston so much. He’s averaging 75 yards. He’ll catch some balls, and he’ll probably finish the year with about 8 TDs. But with the other guys, you get the sense their main purpose is to create mismatches for other players. Lance Moore hasn’t had 25 yards in a game or scored (he didn’t practice at all last week and missed the Miami game, so he probably won’t even play this week). Kenny Stills had a 67-yard catch in the opener, but that’s been pretty much it. He caught 4 passes for 38 yards against Miami (his yards representing 9 percent of Brees’ total). In his other three games, he caught 2 passes for 37 yards outside of the one long one. No touchdowns. That’s a decoy. And Robert Meachem is the same kind of guy. In three games, he’s caught 2 passes for 34 yards. With Moore out, they worked Nick Toon in on Monday night; he’s a big guy like Colston. Toon had a chance to catch a slant pass that might have scored, but he dropped it. With all of these guys, the correct strategy is probably to ignore them. No doubt Stills at some point this year will catch a 65-yard touchdown, but picking him up on the waiver wire and sticking him into your lineup for the two following games isn’t going to do any good. Better to use that roster spot on a handcuff running back like Knile Davis, Robert Turbin, etc., who’s an injury away from being something special. ... The Saints Defense has been solid so far -- 12 sacks and 7 interceptions. But this matchup looks just OK. The Bears have re-worked their offense, making it harder to get to Jay Cutler; he’s been sacked only 6 times. He’s thrown 6 interceptions, including 3 last week, but you get the feeling they’ll get that cleaned up this week. We’re putting New Orleans down for 2 sacks and 1 interception this week, making it a middle-of-the-pack unit. It would be a lot higher if the game were in the Superdome. (And if you’re including yards and points, New Orleans would drop to below-average.) ... Garrett Hartley has been solid, averaging 9 points per game. But with this game being on the road (and our expectation is the Bears will win it), we’re dropping him a notch.