CHICAGO (vs. NYG):
Occasionally, you’ll hear the theory kicked around that Thursday games are lower scoring. But if you actually look into it, there’s not much to it. The NFL Network started televising games in 2006. In those games, there’s been an average of 42.9 points scored. In their other games, teams have scored 43.7 points. That’s it -- less than a point per game (and less than a half point per team). Big deal. The bigger issue (we think) isn’t that teams have less preparation time; it’s that there are more inside-the-division games, and those tend to be lower scoring. Note than in those games, 30 times the teams combined have scored fewer than 40 points, and 18 of those games featured teams from the same division -- 60 percent. But of the 28 games with more than 44 points, only nine of those featured a divisional matchup -- 32 percent. All of which means, if you’re looking for a low-scoring Thursday game, you’ll have better luck on one of the next two Thursdays, when Arizona plays Seattle and the Panthers play at Tampa Bay.
This report is taken from today's Week 6 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings, camp reports for all 32 teams, stat projections, and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend. Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
No reason at all to expect this will be short on points. New York’s defense has been struggling all year, giving up over 30 points in every game. Marc Trestman, meanwhile, has done everything the Bears hoped he would. The Bears offense scored 3 TDs in each of its first four games, and it managed 2 last week against New Orleans. Chicago will score in the high 20s or low 30s in this game. ... They say that the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and Brandon Marshall looks like squeakiest wheel in the league right now. He hasn’t done much the last two weeks, and it’s driving him crazy -- watching teammate Alshon Jeffery put up a team-record 218 yards last week. Jay Cutler (and everyone else) is very much aware that Marshall is disappointed and very interested in catching some balls and touchdowns. We expect that will happen. Cutler will have a big day, and he’ll make an extra effort to ensure that Marshall is included in the fun. This will probably be a showcase-type game for Marshall -- he goes for 100-plus yards and a touchdown. ... Some extra love is also in order for Martellus Bennett. He played for the Giants last year, and you have to believe he’d love to stick it to the team that didn’t want to sign him to a new contract in the offseason. He’s playing pretty well anyway; Bennett is averaging 56 yards per game, and he’s caught 3 TDs. The Giants have been really soft against tight ends anyway; of the 12 TDs they’ve allowed, 5 have gone to tight ends. Bennett was in a couple of these revenge games last year, playing against Dallas. He caught 4 passes in each of those games, with one touchdown. ... Matt Forte goes higher than usual. He’s a huge part of Chicago’s offense, not only as a runner (75 yards per game) but also as a pass catcher (40 per game). He gets to work against the league’s 3rd-worst run defense. The Giants are allowing 126 rushing yards per game. If a short work week translates into a simpler game plan, that will work in his favor. It will be a surprise if Forte doesn’t go over 100 combined yards. The Bears have run for 4 TDs, while the Giants have allowed 5. Combined, that’s 9 TDs in 10 games. About 1 rushing touchdown, we figure, is the right number, and there’s about a 70 percent chance that will belong to Forte. If not him, then it’s Michael Bush coming off the bench to punch it in from the 1. ... Marc Trestman is doing great work with Jay Cutler. Sacks are way down, and Cutler is completing 66 percent of his passes. He completed only 59 percent last year. Cutler is passing for 274 yards per game; he averaged 202 last year. There are defenses that will give Cutler problems -- put him under pressure and give him complex coverages. But the Giants aren’t one of those teams. They don’t have a pass rush this year, and they’ve got a lot of injuries in their secondary. They’ve allowed at least 2 TD passes in every game; Cutler has thrown at least 2 in all but one game. New York has allowed over 260 passing yards in all but one game (when Carolina beat them up on the ground). Cutler has thrown for over 240 in all but the Pittsburgh game (he’s reached 290 three times). It all looks good. We’re putting him down for 260 yards and close to 2 TDs. ... We’re putting the Bears Defense higher than usual. It’s one of the most opportunistic teams in the league. It’s scored 13 TDs on returns (including special teams) in its last 21 games. Here it gets to go against a struggling quarterback. The Giants don’t have an offensive line right now, and Eli Manning is taking sacks and forcing throws that simply aren’t there. He’s on pace to finish the year with 38 interceptions. Chicago has 6 picks in five games, and it had 24 last year. A good chance, it seems, at multiple interceptions. Sacks don’t look quite as promising. The Giants are giving up 3 per game, but the Bears haven’t quite got their pass rush dialed in -- just 8 sacks so far (3rd-fewest in the league). We think about 2 sacks sounds about right. But factor in also that Devin Hester could return a kick for a score; he had 2 long kickoff returns against Minnesota.
