SAN DIEGO (at Washington):
We can't promise San Diego will win this game -- it looks like a toss-up -- but it's a healthy enough matchup for the offense. They've got some ability to move the ball, and Washington's defense has been a sieve all year. Only the Jaguars have allowed more points, and only one offense all year (Oakland) has failed to score 3 TDs against this defense. We expect the Chargers will score in the mid-to-high 20s in this game. ... Philip Rivers should lead the way. He's playing very well, completing a league-high 74 percent of his passes. He'll face a defense that's had all kinds of problems for most of the year. Washington is allowing 293 passing yards per game, and it's given up 15 TD passes. Eight of those were against Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning -- Hall of Fame type quarterbacks -- but even if want to play the cherry-picking game and set those guys aside,
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you're still looking at 243 yards per game, with 7 TDs in five games (and those games would include Matt Flynn starting for Oakland and Josh McCown coming off the bench for the Bears). Rivers is averaging 305 yards per game and over 2 TD passes per game. The only slight negative we see is that Washington has gotten just a touch better against the pass recently; it held Tony Romo to 170 yards and 1 TD, and it was doing a good job against Jay Cutler before he got hurt. But we're putting Rivers down for 280 yards and close to 2 TDs. ... Washington has had all kinds of problems with tight ends. In six of its seven games, it's allowed a tight end to catch a touchdown. So we have much love for the old warrior, Antonio Gates. He's playing well anyway, on pace for over 1,000 yards. He's caught only 2 TDs, but we think he'll improve that total on Sunday. ... We're not as excited about the wide receivers, but we'll slot them a little higher than usual. Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown are your starters, while Eddie Royal gets worked in as a slot guy. Allen is on the upswing -- 80, 115, 107 and 67 yards in his last four games. Royal won't catch as many passes, but they definitely have some plays for him in the red zone. They'll run him underneath other players, creating a natural pick action. Royal caught 5 TDs in the first two games. Then he caught a touchdown that was nullified by a penalty in Week 3. He caught another touchdown in the last game. Brown seems to fit in behind those guys in the pecking order. ... At running back, it's a one-two punch of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. Mathews is their traditional starting tailback. Woodhead is more of a Darren Sproles guy. Woodhead will be a big part of their passing game; he's averaging 45 receiving yards per game (as well as 24 as a runner). He's scored 4 TDs in his last four games. Mathews isn't being used as a pass catcher but has gone over 100 rushing yards two weeks in a row. In this game, they'll face a defense that ranks 30th against the run. But the defense isn't that bad. We think it's more of an average (maybe above average) run defense. Washington gave up a mountain of rushing yards in its first two games (against Philadelphia and Green Bay), but in its last five has allowed an average of 92 per game. We don't think Mathews will get anywhere close to 100 yards in this game. This should be more of a pass-oriented day for the Chargers. For total yards, Woodhead definitely will beat Mathews. ... We have no interest in the Chargers Defense this week. It's got an above-average pass rush (20 sacks), but Washington does a good job of keeping Robert Griffin III out of harm's way. He's been sacked only 14 times. He's thrown 8 interceptions, but San Diego doesn't have a lot of ball skills in its secondary (just 3 interceptions all year). ... Nick Novak has been one of the busier kickers. He's attempted 17 field goals and is on pace to finish the year with 137 points. This looks like a good enough matchup for him. He used to play for Washington, so he's familiar with the field.
