NEW ENGLAND (at Carolina):
This is definitely a lesser situation for the Patriots. Maybe they use their veteran smarts to sneak away with a win, but they're not going to put up big numbers against this opponent. The Panthers might have the best defense in the league right now. They're dominating the line of scrimmage. This defense has allowed only 9 TDs in nine games. The Patriots, meanwhile, aren't getting the kind of offensive line play they've had in the past (plus they just lost Sebastian Vollmer for the season). In their last two games on the road against good defenses (Bengals, Jets), the Patriots were held under 300 total yards both times, with 4 field goals, 2 offensive touchdowns, and an additional touchdown on an interception return. ... The Patriots have a chameleon offense -- they can attack defenses in different ways -- so we might see a completely different kind of approach in this game. In particular, think of some of their wins against the Ravens and Vikings (in particular, a 31-7 win at Minnesota in a Monday night game in 2006). In those games, the Patriots knew they couldn't run the ball, so they instead spread the field and went with a quick-hitting passing game. That could be the kind of approach they use here, with Tom Brady passing for about 300 yards and 2-3 TDs and lifting them to victory. Brady threw for 432 yards and 4 TDs in his last game. And Carolina, while 5th against the pass, is allowing opponents to complete 66 percent of their passes. But Brady has been off more often than on. He's finished under 230 passing yards in five of his nine games, and he threw only 9 TDs prior to the Steelers game. Pass protection has been a problem. He's been sacked 26 times; only once in his last eight full seasons has Brady been sacked more than 27 times. Carolina has one of the top handful of pass rushes in the game. We'll concede that the Patriots might find some kind of spread or hurry-up approach that works, but that's a conditional deal -- for you to be successful on the fantasy end, they'd have to take that approach, and it would have to be successful. We're putting Brady down for 275 yards and 1-2 TDs -- a below-average situation for him, we believe. ... We want no part of Stevan Ridley this week. He's a nice back, and maybe he punches in a touchdown at some point, but the Panthers are very good against the run. They've allowed only 2 rushing touchdowns all year. Only the Jets have allowed fewer rushing yards, and Ridley didn't make much of an impact in either of those games, rushing for 90 yards on 27 carries, with one touchdown, in those two games. He probably won't be particularly effective in this game, and there's the increased probability that he won't even be used extensively. The Patriots could (probably will, we think) leave him on the sidelines for 60-70 percent of the game, going instead with spread formations featuring Shane Vereen. Vereen (who's ready to come off injured reserve) doesn't run between the tackles like Ridley, but he's a lot more versatile. They'll split him out as a wide receiver. They'll roll him out on wheel routes, and if they get him against a linebacker, that's a big play waiting to happen. Vereen is a bigger version of Darren Sproles. Rustiness is a factor; Vereen hasn't played since Week 1. But he makes a lot more sense as a matchup headache against this defense than Ridley. Dropping down another level, there's Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount; we don't expect those guys to get many touches, but always tough to tell with the Patriots. (Given the nature of this defense, we don't expect Blount will even be active.) ... We're putting Rob Gronkowski higher than usual. Carolina has a good defense, but it's been soft against tight ends. The Panthers, in fact, have allowed twice as many touchdowns to tight ends (4) rather than wide receivers (2). The three best tight ends they've played against this year have all had good games (not including Vernon Davis, who left Sunday's game early). Gronkowski has gone over 100 yards in two of his three games.

We're putting the wide receivers a little lower than usual. On the one hand, we think the Patriots might emphasize spread formations in this game and throw the ball all over the place. If it goes down that way, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson could catch a healthy number of passes. Wes Welker had plenty of days with double-digit receptions in those sort of games, and Amendola is in that role. Dobson has been their best receiver recently, averaging 72 yards in his last four games, with 3 TDs. Dobson has passed Kenbrell Thompkins in the pecking order (Thompkins wasn't even active in the last game). But any hope for Amendola and Dobson is contingent on the Patriots coming out firing -- and also having success with that approach. And even if Brady has a huge day, a big chunk of his production could go to tight ends and running backs. We're slotting the wide receivers conservatively. ... The Patriots Defense looks pretty solid -- better than you might think. It's been hit hard by injuries; it's having problems stopping the run. But it's still good at getting after quarterbacks -- they'll blitz, they have some good pass rushers, and they've

This report is taken from today's Week 11 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings, camp reports for all 32 teams, stat projections, and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend. Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!

intercepted 12 passes. Cam Newton is having a good year, but he's being sacked close to 3 times per game, and he's thrown 8 interceptions. The offense-defense numbers suggest about 3 sacks and an interception. ... We're putting Stephen Gostkowski lower than normal. He's averaging a league-high 10 kicking points per game. On the one hand, you might figure the Patriots might have to settle for more field goals in this game. It played out that way for Phil Dawson last week; he chipped in 3 field goals in the first half. The Panthers are the only team that's allowed over twice as many field goals as touchdowns. But Carolina definitely has one of the toughest defenses around. For the year, they're allowing only 6.1 kicking points per game (only five teams have allowed fewer points by kickers). So the overall numbers suggest Gostkowski is only an above-average kicking prospect this week.