SEATTLE (at San Francisco):
The Seahawks are 11-1 and look like the strong favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Maybe one of the strong defensive teams (Carolina, San Francisco) can put together a credible effort up there, but Seattle definitely has the inside track. For this week, however, probably best to try to avoid using Seahawks. This will be a tough, nasty defensive battle. It's a payback-type game. The 49ers have been embarrassed up at CenturyLink in their last two meetings, and they're looking to show they're capable of defending their NFC title. They just saw the Seahawks rip apart the Saints, so they know they need to play a tough, inspired game to take down what appears to be the league's best team right now. San Francisco has the defensive firepower to turn this into a 19-16 type game. The 49ers have allowed only 11 TDs in their last nine games. ... Start with Russell Wilson. As well as he played on Monday night, he's still a guy you don't really want to use this week. The 49ers are very good defensively. They're at home, their pass rush is coming around (with Aldon Smith back), and the Seahawks are playing this game with a target on their backs. Cam Newton went into Candlestick a few weeks back and passed for only 169 yards, with no touchdowns. The Seahawks beat San Francisco 29-3 back in Week 2, but Wilson wasn't much of a factor in that game. He was running for his life, taking 4 sacks and completing only 8 of 19 passes. Wilson, in fact, has finished under 175 passing yards in all three of his career games against San Francisco.
| Russell Wilson against 49ers | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2012 (6-13) | 9 | 23 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 (42-13) | 15 | 21 | 171 | 4 | 1 |
| 2013 (29-3) | 8 | 19 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Wilson, of course, is a better quarterback now than he was last year, but this defense looks very solid and it will be a playoff-type atmosphere, with the San Francisco crowd probably annoyed and motivated by the crowd noise stuff it's seen in Seattle. Opposing quarterbacks have completed less than 58 percent against the 49ers this year, as well as compiling a passer rating of
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only 72.8 (3rd-lowest in the league). We're expecting Wilson will be a bottom-10 passer this week, putting up something along the lines of 210 yards and a touchdown. If he's a factor in fantasy leagues, it will be with his scrambling. He's averaging 38 rushing yards per game. ... Let's also stay away from Marshawn Lynch. Great, physical runner, but he'll be stepping into a battlefield on Sunday. San Francisco has one of the top half dozen run defenses in the league, and it will be radar-locked on him in this one. The 49ers in their last nine games have allowed an average of only 93 rushing yards, with just 3 TDs in that span. In the earlier meeting, Lynch scored 3 TDs and ran for 98 yards, but they didn't come easy. He averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt. Those with Lynch have little choice but to use him (how many fantasy teams have two other backs better than Lynch?). While San Francisco's run defense has been great all along, Lynch has run for 107, 103, 111 and 98 yards in his last four against them, with 6 TDs. ... Percy Harvin won't play. He had some kind of setback with his hip, and the hope now is probably just to have him ready for the postseason. He got a cortisone injection last weekend. If Harvin plays at all in the regular season, it almost certainly will be in a limited role -- maybe a dozen plays in a game. It will be the usual three receivers in this game, in their usual roles (and given the matchup, we're slotting Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse lower than usual). Tate has started three games against San Francisco, and in those games has caught 3 passes for 46 yards. Baldwin is similar in value. They've both caught 4 TDs, and they're both averaging 54-55 yards per game. With Tate, you get the added value that he returns punts. With Baldwin, he's caught TDs in three of his last four (and caught 2 TDs against San Francisco last December). Baldwin caught 1 pass for 51 yards in his last game against this opponent. ... Zach Miller isn't a big factor in the offense. He's caught 4 TDs in 10 games. In three games against San Francisco the last two years, Miller has caught 4 passes for 37 yards. ... Stephen Hauschka has been one of the best kickers this year, but this is a poor situation for him. The 49ers have a really strong defense, and this is a big, payback-style game for them -- the Seahawks have embarrassed them in each of the last two meetings, up in the Northwest. San Francisco has allowed a league-low 67 kicking points anyway; the correct move is to sub out Hauschka with a different kicker for this week. ... The Seahawks Defense has been superb this year; only Carolina has allowed fewer points, and no team has allowed fewer yards. But for fantasy purposes, Seattle looks like only an average option this week. Average in sacks, average in interceptions, and well below average in touchdown probability. The 49ers are very careful with the ball. Colin Kaepernick may be struggling, but he's thrown only 7 interceptions (one short of the best in the league). And they're one of only three teams that hasn't had a turnover returned for a touchdown. Seattle has 34 sacks, while San Francisco has allowed only 30, so you're probably looking at 2-3 sacks there. Good week to sub in a lesser defense (with a better matchup).
