CLEVELAND (vs. Chicago):
The Browns are surprisingly relevant this week. They've got the hottest receiver in the league. They've got an underrated quarterback going against his former team. And they've got a no-name backfield going against a historically bad run defense. ... Willis McGahee, for openers, needs to be closely monitored this week. He left the New England game with a concussion. If he's cleared to practice and play, he's definitely a back who should be on everyone's radar. Not that he's anything special; he's averaging only 2.7 yards per carry. But Chicago's defense is that bad against the run. Right now it's allowing a league-high 157 yards per game on the ground. It's also allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry. Since the move to the 16-game schedule in 1978, only four defenses have allowed more yards per carry. Only six others have averaged over 5.0 per attempt. McGahee has run for more than 40 yards only twice all year. The Browns also have only 2 rushing TDs all year. But this is a week where McGahee is certainly capable of grinding out something like 80-90 yards and a touchdown or two. If he's not playing, then the bulk of the rushing duties would be picked up by some combination of Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker. They both had 4 carries last week. Ogbonnaya is the best pass catcher of these guys; he's averaging 22 receiving yards per game. It's a guessing game; the rushing production
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might be split three ways. But there's a reasonable chance that one guy will get most of the work, and anybody running against this defense is a candidate for a good game. ... Jason Campbell looks surprisingly good. He's played four complete games this year, and in those he's averaged 299 yards, with 9 TDs. He went for 293 yards and 2 TDs at Kansas City, 262 yards and 3 TDs against the Ravens, 248 yards and a TD at Cincinnati and 391 yards and 3 TDs at New England. This is probably more surprising to the Bears than anyone, considering how poorly he played in his one start for them last year. But right now, Campbell looks like a functional quarterback who's in the right system -- kind of a less-heralded version of Josh McCown. And no real reason he can't continue to keep it going. The Bears seem to be average at best against the pass. Officially they rank 7th in pass defense, but that's just a reflection of the reality they can't stop the run (and if opponents are rolling up yards on the ground, it reduces the need to put the ball in the air). But the Browns don't have a good enough running game to pile up 180 yards and 2 TDs. They're more likely to stick to more of their typical offense. We think Campbell has a good chance to put up something like 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Only three teams this year have played the Bears and failed to run for 120 yards -- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. All three of those teams passed for at least 280 yards and 2 TDs. We like Campbell as the Payback Player of the Week. ... No reason to sit down Josh Gordon. He's on fire right now, and there's no reason to believe the Bears will be the team that shuts him down. Gordon has gone over 125 yards and scored four weeks in a row. Chicago has Charles Tillman, who's been a great shutdown corner in the past, but plenty of receivers have had big games against him this year. You ride with Gordon. ... It also looks like a good situation for Jordan Cameron. He hasn't been as productive recently as he was the first month of the season (when he was tearing it up). But Cameron rebounded at New England, piling up 9 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. They threw him 9 passes in that game, and he caught all of them. He's also a must-start kind of guy. ... Cleveland's other wide receivers don't bring much to the table. Davone Bess and Greg Little both are averaging under 30 yards per game for the year, and they've both caught only 2 TDs all season. ... We'll pass on Billy Cundiff. Give the Browns credit for being more competitive than expected; they've beaten the Ravens and Bengals, and they should have won at New England. But they've still scored more kicking points than only two teams. And the weather conditions are always a concern in Cleveland at this time of year. ... The Browns Defense doesn't have much value this week. It's got an above-average pass rush (37 sacks), but the Bears almost certainly will go with Josh McCown this week, and he's simply not making mistakes right now. He's attempted 220 passes and has thrown just one interception and taken only 11 sacks.
