ATLANTA (vs. Carolina):
Give the Falcons some credit. They've long been out of it, and having been to the NFC championship game last year and dealing with plenty of injuries, the easy route for them would be to pack it in and start playing with one eye on 2014. But they're still playing hard. By our count, they've played pretty well five games in a row. They made a good run at the Saints in a Thursday night game. They beat Buffalo in Toronto. They beat Washington. And they nearly won at Lambeau and Candlestick. So it's at least possible they'll make a run at the Panthers. But we're leery of wanting to rely too much on Falcons this week. Carolina's defense is awfully tough. And Atlanta is working on a short week after a West Coast game on Monday night (plus the extra distraction of the Christmas week). We're guessing they probably won't get past 20 points in this one. Atlanta didn't do much offensively when it lost 34-10 at Charlotte in Week 9. ... Definitely no interest in Steven Jackson. He's just a declining old veteran, who doesn't have the speed/power that made him a star in his younger years, and the Panthers are really tough against the run. Carolina is allowing only 88 rushing yards per game, and it's given up only 4 rushing touchdowns, which ties for best in the league. Atlanta ranks last in rushing, down at 78 yards per game. Best we can offer is that despite their problems, they've somehow scored 8 rushing touchdowns in their last five games. Jackson, while we diss him every week, has scored 6 TDs in his last five games. He's averaged 67 yards in those games (62 run, 5 rec). So for
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this game, probably something like 45-50 yards rushing and maybe a catch. We say no touchdowns. ... If you pick through the old newsletters, you'll see some remarks indicating that Tony Gonzalez might simply coast in these final games. After all, this isn't what he signed up for. He came out of retirement because he wanted one last Super Bowl run. And this is the guy who didn't feel like coming to training camp. But Gonzalez isn't going quietly. Instead, it's as if he's cherishing these final games. He's scored four games in a row. Now the greatest tight end in league history is playing his final game. It would be a surprise (we think) if he wasn't at least a slightly above-average portion of the game plan. Our leaning is that if the Falcons get the ball inside the 15, they'll be more likely than usual to try to force the ball to Gonzalez. He was very good in the previous game against this opponent, catching 6 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown. For fantasy purposes, that was his 2nd-best game of the season. In Walter Payton's final year, he was surpassed by Neal Anderson, who was simply younger, faster and better. But in Payton's final game, it turned into a farewell tribute. He ended up diving in for touchdowns at both ends of the field. Gonzalez is kind of the Payton of tight ends, and the correct move, we think, is to use him. ... It's not a great situation for Matt Ryan. The Panthers have allowed only 15 TD passes, which ties for fewest in the league. But the situation isn't quite as dire as first glance might indicate. While the Panthers are tough, it's a defense that's a lot softer against the pass. You don't run against Carolina, but there are some holes in that secondary (if you can get time to throw). Tom Brady passed for 296 and a touchdown against them. Ryan Tannehill went for 310 and a touchdown. Drew Brees struggled on Sunday, but he passed for 313 yards and 4 TDs against the Panthers three weeks ago. While it's not the first choice of defense for Ryan to face, therefore, you have to concede the possibility that he'll throw for about 280 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Whatever touchdowns the Falcons score should come through the air. Ryan has thrown for at least 288 yards in four of his last six games. ... Roddy White has had a lousy year. He's been hurt. But he seems to be healthy now, and he and Ryan seem to be getting their chemistry back. They've gone over 140 yards in two of their last four games. Not a great matchup, but a guy to think about. If you buy into the theory that Gonzalez is more likely to score, however, the logical extension is that it's less likely White will catch that end zone pass. ... Harry Douglas has had a nice season. He's over 1,000 yards. But with White coming on, his role is now diminishing. Since Julio Jones got hurt, Douglas has started 10 games. His three worst games have been his last three, with 103 total yards and no touchdowns. ... We don't think Matt Bryant has any real value. Carolina has the rugged defense and is gunning for a division title; it might not let the Falcons get in scoring position often. ... The Falcons Defense doesn't bring much to the table. It's a bottom-5 team in terms of sacks and interception. Not enough pass rush, and not enough playmaking guys in the secondary. ... Jacquizz Rodgers left the San Francisco game with what appeared to be a concussion. With Atlanta not in playoff contention, it will be a surprise if he plays. Jason Snelling and Antone Smith could pick up that workload. Smith is averaging 29 yards per carry, but the Falcons for whatever reason aren't using him (he's got only 5 carries, and he's picked up at least 8 yards on all of them).
