NY JETS (vs Oakland): The Jets appear to have friends in the league office. For the fourth year in a row, they’re opening at home against a team that finished with a losing record. They won the other three, scoring 27, 42 and 18 points against the Cowboys, Bills and Bucs, and they’re a virtual shoo-in to keep that run going against the Raiders. Once the dust settles, Oakland almost certainly will emerge as one of the worst couple teams in the league. ... In an era where quarterbacks are passing for more yards and touchdowns than ever before, the Jets are a throwback. They’ll likely opt for a ground-and-pound approach against most opponents, using Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory as one of the league’s better one-two punches and mixing in some Bilal Powell. Johnson isn’t the back he used to be, but he’s still one of the league’s fastest running backs. He’s still 28 (until later this ...

This report is taken from today's Week 1 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings, camp reports, stat projections, and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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... month). He’ll bust some long plays as both a runner and on dumpoff passes. Ivory should be an ideal change-up pitch, as a more physical, punishing runner. New York should run for 150-plus yards in a lot of games, and this looks like one of them. The only turnoff is that it’s a pie that’s getting divided four ways. Johnson’s a big-play artist, so he’ll be more inconsistent than most backs. For this week, he’s playing his first game for his new team, which you might figure would give him a better chance of being on and productive. On the downside, Johnson has been about the worst Week 1 running back in the league over the last three years -- 20 carries for 28 yards in losses to the Patriots and Jaguars, and 70 yards on 25 carries last year at Pittsburgh. No touchdowns in any of those games. His last good game on opening day came back in 2010, when he ran for 142 yards and 2 TDs against this same opponent. Ivory won’t get as much work but is more likely to punch in a touchdown at the goal line. Ivory is a better, more physical runner between the tackles -- the league’s best runner statistically last year in 1-yard situations. Powell should be just a spot-duty guy. Geno Smith’s role in the running game should not be underestimated; the Jets scored only 12 rushing touchdowns last year, and Smith accounted for half of them. ... For Geno Smith and the passing game, we see it as more of an average situation. The Raiders were dreadful against the pass last year, allowing 33 touchdowns and 272 yards per game, but they had the misfortune of playing four games against Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. They allowed only 251 yards in their other 12 games last year, with 23 touchdowns (and over half of those came in losses against Philadelphia and Kansas City). The Raiders played almost all of last year without their safety, Tyvon Branch, who’s one of their key guys, and they added a lot of veteran help in free agency. It’s a below-average defense, but it’s not as if everyone will be ripping apart this secondary. The Jets, we think, will try to muscle this one out (with success), so we see it as more of an average-type situation for Smith. He passed for 219 yards against Oakland last year, with a touchdown pass and a touchdown run. His rushing production (he averaged 23 yards as a runner last year) puts him in the discussion in leagues using double quarterbacks. ... Eric Decker is the No. 1 receiver, but he’s not a franchise-type guy. The Broncos, after all, opted not to pay him. In his last four games against the Raiders, Decker has caught 22 passes for 327 yards and 3 TDs, but those were all with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Geno Smith is far more likely to finish with about 220 yards and 1-2 TDs, making Decker’s more likely landing spot to be about 50-60 yards, with maybe a one-in-three chance of a touchdown. ... Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson are the other main receivers, but those guys don’t move the needle. (Kerley has been productive in the past, however, so we expect he’ll outproduce Decker in some games.) ... At tight end, the Jets should use a pair. Jeff Cumberland should be their traditional in-line guy, and they’d like to get Jace Amaro set up as more of a slot-type option. Amaro’s head was supposedly swimming early in camp, but they clearly want to get him on the field. He saw extensive action with the first-unit offense in all of the preseason games, even catching a short touchdown on a play-action fake at the goal line. The Jets threw only 13 TDs last year, but 6 of them went to tight ends. The Raiders, meanwhile, allowed 7 TDs to tight ends. That’s a combined 13 TDs in 32 games, so you could crudely conclude that New York might have about a 50-50 chance of throwing a touchdown to a tight end in this game. But we haven’t seen enough of Amaro yet to recommend him in any kind of typical fantasy format. Cumberland might not be healthy yet; he missed most of August. ... If you’re looking for a kicker -- suppose you drafted Matt Prater or Alex Henery -- your best replacement option for Week 1 might be Nick Folk. He’s struggled with accuracy in the past, but he went 33-36 on field goals last year, and he does his best work (by far) when the Jets are winning. If you buy into the premise that New York will win this game, it makes sense to conclude that Folk will be a top-5 kicker this week. The Jets went 8-8 last year, and Folk scored exactly twice as many points in the wins versus the losses -- 84 to 42. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 9.4 points in games New York has won. ... The Jets Defense also deserves a nudge up the board this week, with the benefit of facing a rookie quarterback starting his first game. Derek Carr hasn’t faced an NFL defense before, and with the Jets having a really tough run defense (and having weak spots in their secondary) the Raiders may be inclined to let him attempt more passes than what people expect. Of the last 14 rookie quarterbacks to start on opening day, those guys in general struggled, but not quite as badly as you might expect. A combined 28 sacks in 14 games, which is actually better than average, but 20 interceptions and 9 fumbles.