GREEN BAY (at Chicago):
The Packers are on the road, but they should play well. At 1-2, they’re in kind of a must-win situation, but they’re playing against an opponent they match up well against. Green Bay is 5-1 in this series the last three years, the only loss coming when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone early in a Monday night game last year. In their last five other games against this opponent, the Packers have scored 27, 35, 23, 21 and 33 points. Chicago’s defense doesn’t seem particularly good, so we’re expecting Green Bay to score in the mid-to-high 20s. ... Eddie Lacy has been stuck in a funk, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. Part of this can be attributed to him playing against great defenses; the Jets, Lions and Seahawks all rank in the top 5 against the run. But Lacy also doesn’t seem to be running with quite the same gusto as his rookie year, when it was clear from his first preseason carries that he was going to be something special. James Starks has been more impressive ...

This report is taken from today's Week 4 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings, camp reports, stat projections, and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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... averaging 5.0 per attempt against those same defenses. We’re not sure exactly what to make of this, but it’s our belief that one of the team’s primary goals this week will be to get Lacy going. The defense he’ll face isn’t nearly as good as what he’s been seeing. The Bears rank 27th in rushing so far, and while they’re not that bad, it’s probably a below-average unit. Lacy ran for 150 yards in his first game against Chicago last year. In the rematch at Soldier Field, he carried 21 times for 66 yards. Lacy hasn’t played well enough for us to promise eye-popping numbers, but we expect he’ll run for about 80, with another 10-20 as a pass catcher. We’re slotting the Packers for 2.5 offensive touchdowns, so probably about a 50-60 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. ... The Packers have the three tight ends. Richard Rodgers has started all three years, but he seems to be mostly a blocker; he hasn’t caught a pass yet. They’ve got Brandon Bostick, who might work his way in at some point. But the viable tight end is Andrew Quarless. He’s not starting, but whenever they’re in a passing-type situation, Rodgers heads to the sidelines and Quarless is in there. He can line up as a fullback, tight end or even split out as a wide receiver. In the preseason, he caught a touchdown and they went back to him on the 2-point conversion -- Quarless split out wide, was covered one-on-one, and the ball was going to him the whole way. That drew an obvious pass interference and got the ball to the 1. In the Detroit game, they hit Quarless for a touchdown on a slant route; he was working out at a receiver position, and he had guys on him. So Quarless seems to have some value. If you’re one of those franchises adversely affected by injuries to guys like Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta, Quarless is on the list of possible fill-in candidates. He’s caught 8 passes for 77 yards so far, with the one touchdown. ... Aaron Rodgers has put up two clunkers to far. At both Seattle and Detroit, he finished with under 190 yards and with just one touchdown. But no need to get too concerned. He’s still a franchise guy with a deep cast of pass catchers around him. They’ll get him back on track. The Bears have allowed only one touchdown in each of their games, but they haven’t faced any elite passers yet -- just EJ Manuel, Colin Kaepernick and Geno Smith. In his last game against this defense, Rodgers threw for 318 yards and 2 TDs, and that was after missing seven games with the collarbone injury. In the 2011-2012 seasons, Rodgers averaged 273 yards in his four games against the Bears, with 11 TDs and only 2 interceptions. We’re putting him down for 275 yards and close to 2 TDs. ... It’s a fair enough matchup for the wide receivers. So far Jordy Nelson is easily the No. 1 option -- he’s getting a lot more looks than Randall Cobb and is doing a lot more damage downfield. Cobb has averaged under 10 yards per catch in every game. Nelson has caught 9 more passes and has seen 16 more attempts. He’s the man right now. ... The Packers use mostly three-receiver formations, but that third spot is kind of up in the air right now. In Week 1, Jarrett Boykin was their No. 3, but all he did was stand next to Richard Sherman, with not a single ball thrown his way. In Week 2, they went with rookie Davante Adams as their No. 3 for most of the final three quarters, and he played well, catching 5 passes. Adams has the look of a guy who’s going to be an outstanding pro for a lot of years. In Week 3, these guys kind of shared the job. Boykin seemed to be the No. 3 for more plays, but Adams definitely was out there some and saw a little more action. For now, both of these guys look like “hold” receivers. Worthy, perhaps, of fantasy roster spots, but we can’t really endorse either as somebody you’d want to rely on in Week 4. It’s our guess that Adams is in the process of taking that third job away from Boykin. ... Mason Crosby has been a disappointment so far; just 4 points at Seattle and 1 at Detroit. But he’s playing fine; he just needs things to fall in place around him. That should happen; he knocked in 141 points last year. Here he faces a defense that’s been good at stopping teams in the red zone. The Bears have allowed a league-high 9 field goals thru three weeks. We’re putting Crosby above-average on our board. ... When all is said and done, we believe the Packers Defense has a chance to rank in the top 10 in sacks and interceptions. Over the years, it’s tended to have Jay Cutler’s number. He’s 1-8 against them, and he’s thrown at least one interception in every one of those games. Granted both teams have changed, but in nine starts against the Packers, Cutler has thrown 18 interceptions and gotten sacked 31 times. We’re putting the Packers down for at least an interception and 2-3 sacks.