SAN DIEGO (at Oakland):
When the Chargers played at Oakland in Week 5 last year, against a similarly overmatched opponent, they left on the losing end of a 27-17 clunker. So there’s that. With teams inside divisions, there’s that added dimension of being more familiar with schemes and personnel. But whatever. The Chargers look even better this year -- a possible Super Bowl contender -- while Oakland is down at the very bottom of the barrel. We’re going with San Diego. Easy. ... Branden Oliver looks like he might be a top-10 back until Ryan Mathews returns in 2-3 weeks. Oliver isn’t Superman. He’s just an undrafted free agent out of Buffalo (same school as James Starks). But he ran well in the preseason, and that’s carried over into the real games. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry; none of the team’s other running backs are averaging more than 3.1. And now they’re all hurt -- Mathews, Woodhead and Donald Brown. Oliver carried 19 times for 114 yards against the Jets. He had a 52-yard run in that game, so the other 18 attempts went for just over 3 yards per attempt, but the Jets had the No. 1 run defense heading into that game. Now Oliver gets to work against the 31st-ranked run defense. Other than New England, every one of Oakland’s opponents has run for over 155 yards, with 4 TDs in those three games. And as a considerable bonus, Oliver also ...
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... will be used considerably in the passing game. He caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. When you factor in the receiving production, Oliver grades out higher than the other Flavor of the Week running back, Andre Williams of the Giants (who might not get out of single digits in receiving yards). ... Philip Rivers is on top of his game. He’s averaging 289 yards, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns four games in a row. He’s had 3 TDs in three of those games. He’s an MVP candidate right now. He should keep things going this week. Only four teams are allowing fewer passing yards than the Raiders (218 per game). Oakland also has allowed only 6 TD passes. But best not to put too much stock in those numbers. One of those games was against Geno Smith, and another was against Ryan Fitzpatrick (who did little more than hand the ball to Arian Foster back in Week 2). The Raiders are allowing a league-high 72.4 percent completions. No reason to think Rivers won’t continue his hot streak. ... There’s not a lot of difference between the pass catchers. Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen, Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal. It’s a guessing game with these guys. So far, they’re all averaging 52-55 yards per game. Floyd is more of a hit-or-miss guy than the others. They’re using him primarily as a deep threat; he’s averaging 21.6 yards per catch. He’s caught only about half as many passes, but the yards are similar. For touchdowns, Gates and Royal have gotten the most looks in the red zone. They’ve caught 4-5 TDs, while Floyd has caught 2 and Allen hasn’t scored at all. But these kind of things can change. Allen caught 8 TDs last year, including one in each of the Oakland games. ... Best to stay away from Ladarius Green for now. He had the one serviceable game at Buffalo, where he caught 4 passes for 64 yards, but he hasn’t been a factor in any of the other games. He may emerge later in the year (he’s a talented guy) but don’t chase after struggling players. ... Nick Novak is a blue-chip kicking candidate this week. He’s on pace for 150 kicking points, and he’s facing an opponent that’s on pace to allow 172. ... The Chargers Defense doesn’t grade out as well as you might expect. The Raiders are starting a rookie at quarterback, but Derek Carr thus far hasn’t been fantasy gold. They’re making a big effort to get the ball out of his hands quickly, and he’s not forcing balls into coverage. He’s been sacked only 3 times, and he’s thrown only 4 interceptions. The Raiders have given up only one touchdown on an offensive mishap, and that was on the ridiculous snap past Matt McGloin in the London game. On the other side, San Diego is allowing a league-low 12.6 points per game, but the Chargers have been only average in sacks and interceptions. San Diego doesn’t have a big-time kick returner.
