Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special running backs edition. Is it time to kick Toby Gerhart to the curb? When do we give up on My Least Favorite Martin? Are Ronnie Hillman and Branden Oliver for real? And is Darren Sproles a top 20 running back?
Question 1
Any chance you can clear up what's going on, and the pecking order, with the Denver running backs? Thanks!
PATRICK MACINNIS (Novi, MI)
Ronnie Hillman is definitely starting. Montee Ball is out for at least two games, and I wonder how much separation there is between those backs anyway. When Denver had to drive the length of the field to tie the game at Seattle in the last minute, it was with Hillman on the field. Ball has been dreadful, averaging about 3 yards per carry. After Ball got hurt in the Arizona game, Hillman came in and gave them a spark. So it will be interesting, I think, to see how it will play out if Hillman performs well in their next two games. They’ve also got Juwan Thompson and C.J. Anderson. on the team’s official depth chart (which isn’t actually “official”; I think it’s just put together by somebody in the media relations department) Anderson is listed as the third-stringer, while Thompson is down at No. 4. But I don’t think that means anything. I think it’s been a while since they’ve updated that page (not that Wes Welker isn’t even listed at all, so I believe they put that one up while he was suspended for the first two games). Against Arizona, Thompson came in and had a couple of nice runs, while Anderson wasn’t even active. That can maybe be attributed to Thompson having more value on special teams. I won’t really be sure who the next back is there until they take the field on Sunday. I don’t think either one of them is anything special. Both originally made it into the league as undrafted free agents. Thompson was never used prominently as a running back at Duke (as a senior, he started one game at linebacker). Anderson was slightly more distinguished as a ballcarrier at Cal, but he’s also a limited skills guys. Neither one of these backs would be one of the top 40-45 players on any current NFL roster (including the Raiders and Jaguars).
Question 2
Do you still believe Doug Martin can pull through and be a top 20 running back? Seems as if they are using Rainey more often then people thought. As for Calvin Johnson do you think this struggle will ever end? I drafted Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, and Doug Martin. Things don't look so good for me this year.
Michael Holmburg (Glenolden, PA)
I just re-watched all of the touches for those guys (Martin and Rainey) from the New Orleans game. I don’t see a lot of difference between them. Martin is averaging only 2.5 yards per attempt. He wasn’t much better in the preseason. I don’t see a lack of speed or effort. I’m not trying to pin it on him underachieving or anything. But he generated a few extra yards on some of his touches. He had a 32-yard catch nullified by a penalty, and later he picked up 20 yards on another catch where it looked like they had him. But there’s no magic in his game. He needs good blocking and a good offense around him, and he just doesn’t have that. Rainey, to me, looks pretty similar. He scored a 9-yard touchdown in that game, but Martin would have taken that one in as well – it was well blocked. I didn’t see him as faster or better than Martin. Rainey had a 144-yard game a few weeks back against the Rams, but I will attribute that to him playing against a lesser run defense. Had he been healthy, Martin probably would have had a similar kind of day against that defense. Going forward, I expect the Bucs will continue using Martin as the starter, but that they’ll rotate in Rainey more often. They’re both effective pass catchers. For the immediate future, I think it will be a 60-40 playing time deal, with Rainey given the opportunity to compete for that job. As for Calvin Johnson, he just needs time to get healthy. His ankle is messed up enough that I think they’ll sit him down for a couple of games.
Question 3
What are your thoughts on Detroit signing Prater? Do you think he moves to the top 5 for the rest of the season?
RODNEY NESBIT (Redondo Beach, CA)
As an actual real-life kicker, I think Prater is at best a little better than average. Leg strength is a little stronger than most, I think. He had tons of touchbacks with the Broncos, of course, but he was playing half of his games at altitude. If you look at his road games over the last two years, you’ll see 51 touchbacks in 100 kickoffs, which would rank 18th out of the 32 teams. As for accuracy, he went 25 of 26 last year, which was phenomenal, but he was near the bottom in the previous two years, hitting only 45 of 57 attempts. Among the 26 active kickers with at least 100 field goals, he ranks 14th in accuracy. Now he’s going to Detroit, which has been cycling thru struggling kickers since Jason Hanson left. David Akers, Nate Freese, Alex Henery. They just can’t find anybody who can reliably knock them through. Prater may need a little time to adjust to his holder and snapper. It’s a timing deal. As for the team itself, it looks pretty solid. The Lions should be 4-1 right now. So to me, it sounds like Prater probably will be in the top 10 or 15 as a scorer the rest of the way. I’m not putting him up there with the elite guys like Gostkowski, Hauschka, Dawson and Tucker.
Question 4
Would you recommend cutting Gerhart for just about anyone that is breathing?
JOSEPH PLACK (Deerfield, IL)
A bird in hand, they say, is worth two in the bush. With that in mind, if I had the chance to make a waiver claim on a Branden Oliver, Andre Williams or Ronnie Hillman, I wouldn’t for a second hesitate to toss Gerhart overboard for those guys. Especially with Oliver and Williams, you know you’re getting a couple of good starts. With Gerhart, you’re twisting in the wind, hoping things might eventually come around. Gerhart runs hard enough, I think. He proved that last year, when he went for over 7 yards a carry for the Vikings. He also had a couple of decent games for them in earlier seasons. But he needs blocking (good blocking) and he’s not getting it. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been a disaster all along. They have been able to run block (in preseason or regular season) and they’ve also allowed a league-high 21 sacks. They cut their starting right tackle a few weeks back. Things change, of course. Last year the Jaguars started the year 0-8, averaging under 11 points per game. They were historically bad. They rallied some in the second half of the season, averaging over 20 points per game (almost out of the bottom 10). If you hang onto Gerhart, you’re banking on (or hoping, at least) for that kind of turnaround. But given the choice, I’d rather just take an instant fix of Oliver, Williams or Hillman. While the intention is that these guys are just giving you a little something now, there’s always the possibility that they’ll grow into something more.
Question 5
Hi Ian, great stuff as always. However: another week, another Darren Sproles sighting in the Top 20 RBs. You advocate starting him over some pretty interesting options. Not that I'm completely disagreeing with you, but are you seeing something I'm not? The Eagles' offense seems to be a bit of a mess. McCoy doesn't look 100% right. Foles is, um, not exactly lighting it up. I'd be curious to hear your detailed thoughts on Sproles. Thanks!
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
You start with his punt return ability. He scored on a punt return at San Francisco, and the Eagles have also scored on a kickoff return (plus another one in the preseason). They seem to have their special teams set up better than other clubs. If you’re a big, big Sproles fan, maybe you give him a 10 percent chance of scoring on a punt return. If you’re not buy that so much, maybe you go as low as 5 percent. But there’s some value there. As a runner, he’s been a lot more effective than McCoy. He’s averaging 6.9 yards per carry, while McCoy is down at 2.9. So if anything, they might start using him more. Right now, McCoy is averaging 34 rushing yards per game. He’s similar in the passing game, up at 40 yards per game. I will concede that most of that came in that one mega-game at Indianapolis. Sproles is more hit-or-miss than other backs. But you have to respect that he’s going to hit big in some of these games. Bottom line is he’s averaging 74 total yards per game, with 3 TDs in five weeks. You put that kind of production up against other running backs, and I think you’ll find he shows up in the top 20 in a lot of weeks.
Question 6
First, a "good on you" for picking Cleveland to win against the Titans week 5. When it was 28-3 for Tennessee, your hunch wasn't looking too good. When it was over, you looked like a genius. Wait a minute, you are a genius! My team has been struggling at quarterback because some genius thought Brady would have a huge bounce back year. I started Bortles this week, as per my treasured custom rankings. So I have Brady and Bortles, and I'm thinking of dropping RB Stepfan Taylor, and bidding on one of these available QBs: Davis, Hoyer, Glennon, Palmer, and Whitehurst. Are any of these guys worth adding to my team, and possibly start going forward? And if there's more than one worth adding, how would you rank them, please? Branden Oliver for real? Should I bid heavily and try to roster him?
Steven Schipper (Winnipeg, MB)
Thanks for the kind words. Sorry, I’m just seeing this now. I do the Mailbag on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Branden Oliver, for starters, is the real deal. He’s not only a runner but also catches passes. He’s playing against Oakland this week, and I think that probably will make him top-5 running back for Week 6. I like Oliver a little better than the other hot fill-in running backs this week (Andre Williams and Ronnie Hillman). I like both of those guys, as well. Not trying to provide any bulletin board material here. I just like Oliver better. As for quarterbacks, apologies for recommending Blake Bortles last week. I was trying to connect the dots, looking at how he was running for 20-plus yards every week, connecting downfield passes and facing a defense that had been struggling and just got ahead of myself. In hindsight, that now looks like kind of a jackass selection, and I apologize. Going forward, I have considerable interest in Carson Palmer. Assuming his shoulder checks out OK (and we’ll see the final injury report later today), he’s the guy I would be starting this week. Hoyer also has been surprisingly good, with 6 TDs and only 1 interception, but I would be inclined to ride with the Palmer-Brady combo. Austin Davis has put insane numbers; he’s been probably the most surprising quarterback in the league this year, going over 300 yards in two of his three starts. But I just can’t see him sustaining that. Their next four games are against San Francisco (twice), Seattle and at Kansas City (Governor’s Cup!), and I don’t like any of those matchups.
Question 7
Both Justin Hunter and Kendall wright are available in our league. This week’s redrafter yards plus TDs has Hunter #69 and Wright # 74 This weeks weekly has Wright #44 and Hunter # 49. Why?
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
They’re similar in value, I think you would agree. Wright will catch more passes, and he’s been rising in my eyes (relative to Hunter) because he’s shown some ability to run the timing-type routes in the red zone. So there’s some Roddy White or Cris Carter in his game. Not that Wright is a White-Carter type receiver, but those guys had that component in their game. With Hunter, you’re looking more at a raw, big-play kind of a guy. He’ll have some dud games – plenty of clunkers, I think – but he has the ability to take over games. He’s got the same kind of body type as A.J. Green and Randy Moss, and he’s shown that kind of ability at times. He had the nice 2-TD game at New Orleans in the preseason, and he had the 75-yard touchdown last week. Hunter had a few of those eye-opener catches last year, high-pointing the ball. So in the overall, I had Hunter a little higher in hopes that made he catches fire and becomes a real impact receiver. But if we’re just picking which guy will be better on Sunday, than I will ride with Wright. He’s outscored Hunter 3-1 this year, and he’s finished with more yards in three of the five games. They’re both about 25 spots higher than usual because of the favorable matchup against Jacksonville, which has been really leaky against the pass. Now that it’s looking more likely that they’ll be starting Clipboard Jesus in this game, they’ll both probably be 10 spots lower in the updated rankings that come out later today.
Question 8
I'm in a standard scoring league (yards & TDs) with 14 teams. Pretty standard lineups too (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, TE, K, DST). I'm carrying 3 QBs at the moment because I drafted Brady and Palmer and just picked up Flacco (because I have Brady and Palmer). Then I got a trade offer: I get Russell Wilson and Darren McFadden for Mark Ingram. I have 3 great WRs, so I've only been playing 2 RBs. Lacy is my RB1, but I've been using Donald Brown as RB2 since Ingram got hurt. I don't think I want the trade because I think I'll lose more at my RB2 spot then I can gain from Wilson. Your thoughts?
Jarrod McCowin (Beaver Falls, PA)
Wilson is an upgrade. On my board, I’ve got him producing 22 points per game, which is 1-2 higher than that combo-platter (I’ve got all of them at 20-21). But keep in mind with those guys that you get to pick the best one each week. Brady could/should come around, and he might be about as good as Wilson when he does. I think Palmer will have a lot of good games, once his shoulder comes around. To swing the deal, you need to find somebody you can rely on to fill that No. 2 running back spot. So next step (I think) is to see what somebody might be willing to give you in exchange for one or two of your functional quarterback. I don’t consider McFadden to be an adequate No. 2 running back.
Question 9
I got a trade offer in a PPR league. Send Steve Smith, receive Frank Gore. I would be starting Gore over Reggie Bush and Kendall Wright in place of Smith. Thoughts?
Jason Nielsen (West Palm Beach, FL)
I don’t see it. To me, Bush is better than Gore. That’s not politically motivated; I’m speaking purely in football terms. Key is the format – PPR. Bush will catch 4-plus passes per game, and that makes it tough for Gore to hang with him. So far this year, they have been pretty much interchangeable. Gore has run for 204 more yards, so without looking at numbers carefully, you might figure he was a lot better. But that’s 20.4 fantasy points. Bush has a 20-4 advantage in receptions (a 16-point edge), and he wins by 142-68 in receiving yards (another 7.4 points). Gore pulls back 6 with the 2-1 edge in touchdowns. Going forward, I expect Bush will be better. Even if you prefer Gore, you must concede there’s not a big difference between those guys. At wide receiver, however, Steve Smith is light years ahead of Kendall Wright. Smith is a top-10 receiver on my board, while Wright isn’t even in my top 50.
Question 10
In the magazine, you include the Dynasty League Cheat Sheet to show "How rookies stack up against veterans in fantasy leagues allowing teams to protect players." I'm wondering if this could be a feature updated during the season. For those of us in keeper leagues (I'm in a 3-player KL), potential trades often need to consider the players' future values, especially for deeper bench guys, which aren't necessarily reflected on the redrafter.
Bradley Contento (Tucson, AZ)
On said cheat sheet in the magazine, it’s more dynasty than keeper. In a dynasty league, I’m working under the assumption that essentially all players are being kept. So when you weigh Jordan Matthews against Roddy White, it’s an easy call. Matthews is 10 years younger, so you’d definitely select him earlier in a dynasty. In your league, where each team is keeping three players, it’s different. In that kind of a league, you’d probably want to assume that no team would make Matthews or White one of their three protected players, so then you’d toss out the dynasty rankings and just go by what you expect to happen in 2014 – you’d go with White. See the difference? If you’re in one of those leagues where you keep guys relative to where they’re selected, then it’s even more complicated. Jordan Matthews maybe isn’t one of your top 3 players, but if you selected him in the 12th round, then you’d love to select him in 2015 at the price of an 11th- or 12th-round pick. Factor in also that some guys want standard scoring and others want the PPR in there. It gets problematic. But your point is a good one. Going forward (in the remaining redrafters) Andy and I will try to occasionally point out guys who could be picked up in a dynasty-type league. You can send in mailbag questions to ask about specific guys or positions. And I can try to work in a list or two or three during the season. On some of the Thursdays, I post the chart showing expected results of all remaining NFL games. It might be better for me to instead on some of those week put in a few hours and re-work the dynasty draft board.
