Ian Allan answers for fantasy football questions. In this edition. Breaking down Branden Oliver's Week 8 projection. Seattle's wide receivers are on the rise. Updated dynasty league rankings. And looking for a fill-in for Reggie Wayne.
Question 1
I was wondering since we are about halfway through the season, if I could get your updated keeper rankings. Just the top 10 at QB, RB, WR, and TE would be great.
Chris Faxel (Orland Park, IL)
I’m trying to add this into the rotation. The keeper/dynasty stuff tends to get under-represented in the bustle of putting together the Tuesday and Wednesday products, so once a week I’m trying to put together updated rankings at one position for a dynasty format. Last Saturday I did quarterbacks. Yesterday I did the top 80 wide receivers (as a stand-alone item on the home page). Running backs and tight ends are coming soon.
Question 2
Super League question. I am all for the two teams that tied in week 7 playing a head-to-head tiebreaker in week 8. That is a very fair way to do it. But what is the point of us picking a tiebreaker score each week?
PHIL KEIL (Pottsville, PA)
A year or so back, we got our first tie. And it occurred to me at the time that the existing tiebreaker was an extremely lame way to decide it. Two teams score 208 points, for example, so the “winner” is the guy who comes closest to guessing his own score? So we added the Deathmatch Playoffs. It’s in the fine print of the rules somewhere. And we’ve got one of those week, with all eyes on James Wimmers of North Carolina and John Gibb of Oregon. They’re going head to head, with a $25 Subway gift card on the line. Kind of exciting. We need to get in touch with the programmers and have them eliminate that tiebreaker number thing, because it is meaningless.
Question 3
What impact (if any) will the odd start time for DET/ATL have on those players? Not just jetlag, but playing 3-plus hours earlier than they otherwise might.
ADAM HOLTZ (Rochester, MN)
I imagine it will impact a handful of fantasy coaches who won’t realize the game is starting three and half hours earlier than the usual Sunday slate. Somebody will either start or not start Calvin Johnson or Reggie Bush, and be sorry they did. As for the game itself, I think the altered time is more likely to help than hurt. The teams have been over there for a few days, so they’ve made the time switch. With the switch, they won’t have to wait around all day for the game to start. The other England games have started at 6 p.m. locally. This one is starting at 2:30 p.m. (London time), making it more like a regular NFL weekend. As long as they don’t send the Jets over to play in one of these games, I think the earlier start is the way to go (New York, recall, tried to stay on local time for a game at San Diego a few weeks back, with disastrous results for Geno Smith).
Question 4
Better Keeper option for 2015: Sammy Watkins or Kelvin Benjamin?
DAN TROUT (West Milford, NJ)
I’ll go with Watkins. Really like the way he looks now that Kyle Orton is at quarterback. He looks like he’ll crank out a lot of good years. I like Benjamin as well, but with him, he’s doing it with a body type we having seen before. At 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, Benjamin is built like Calvin Johnson or Vincent Jackson, but he can’t run like those guys. He’s a slow receiver who thus far has been able to get by using his size, body positioning and really good hands. A year or two or three down the road, defenses might figure out ways to more successfully defend him. With Watkins, I’m more confident that he’s on the front end of a stream of elite seasons.
Question 5
Seems like a completely unlucky year for me so far. I traded Dwayne Allen for Fred Jackson and he gets injured the first week I have him! Not to mention I drafted Calvin Johnson, Ray Rice, Doug Martin, and Kyle Rudolph. Do you think Dixon or Bryce Brown are worth a pickup?
Michael Holmburg (Glenolden, PA)
Dixon and Brown will be a one-two punch. Dixon will be the starter, and as a more direct and physical inside runner, he’s far more likely to score any 1- or 2-yard touchdowns. He’s Jackson. Brown has a lot more speed and ability, so he could finish with a lot more yards even if he’s getting far fewer touches. He could potentially take the starting job and run with it. Brown is more like Spiller. They are both, I think, were fantasy roster spots.
Question 6
With Wayne out who would be elevated in his spot? I'm looking for a desperation fill-in type guy. Brazill or Moncrief?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Of the 19 touchdowns Andrew Luck has thrown, only 4 have gone to wide receivers. So it’s possible (likely) that there will be no successful Wayne fill-in. In the red zone, Luck is working the ball to the tight ends and running backs (who would have that that Dwayne Allen and Ahmad Bradshaw would have a combined 11 touchdown catches before the halfway point of the season?). T.Y. Hilton is definitely the No. 1 option there; he’s had 90-plus yards four games in a row. How he’s piling up all those yards while scoring only one touchdown in seven games, I have no idea. At the beginning of the season, Hakeem Nicks was either a starter or their No. 3 receiver. They were using three-receivers a lot, and he was playing just as much as Hilton and Wayne. But they seem to have soured on him. He’s not getting open, and they’re using him only on painfully short routes. He’s averaging only 8.3 yards per catch. Now they seem to be phasing him out. I mean, that’s the logical thing to do, right? When Luck was ripping up the Texans, he went only 2 of 7 throwing to Nicks (who was covered like a blanket on every play). Four weeks in a row, Luck has thrown for over 310 yards, and four weeks in a row, Nicks hasn’t even had 30 yards. Last week, against Cincinnati, Nicks hardly even got on the play – one pass (an incompletion) sent his way. So maybe this is the week that rookie Donte Moncrief steps up and adds himself into the mix. Moncrief has been their No. 4 receiver thus far and has shown some ability to get downfield. But this is all guesswork, and Moncrief has only 9 career receptions (no touchdowns) so I can’t strongly advise anyone to plug him into their lineup this week. LaVon Brazill, recall, got released after the league suspended him for violating the substance abuse policy.
Question 7
Will any Seattle WRs move up significantly in the rankings? Ahead of a J Hunter or M Wheaton type?
PATRICK MAHONEY (Chesapeak Bch, MD)
Wheaton we can throw on the scrap pile. Nice idea. I don’t regret selecting him, given the way the Steelers have developed other, similar types of receivers over the year. Most notably Antonio Brown, Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. They seem to know how to get receivers ready for the pros. But Wheaton hasn’t quite made it over the hump and had the lousy game at Cleveland. Now the Steelers seem to have moved on. He was on the field for less than half of their plays last week, and Martavius Bryant looked a lot better when he was out there. With his combination of size and speed, Bryant is now the Pittsburgh receiver I see as the up-and-comer. As for the Seahawks, all of those receivers are going to be better now. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse will play more and see more balls. Baldwin had a damn nice game at St. Louis. I think he’s one of those guys like Victor Cruz or Antonio Brown. The scouts didn’t like him, because he was big enough or fast enough. Teams like those physical measurables. But what about work ethic, smarts and the feel for the game? Those are harder to measure but are more important. Baldwin wasn’t even drafted, but he seems to have it. I think he’ll be a starter for Seattle for a long time. Supposedly he works really hard with film study, trying to find weakness of the various defenses and cornerbacks. Baldwin is No. 1. Kearse isn’t far behind. In his case, I believe he went unselected because he was plagued by drops in college. But he’s undergone eye surgery, which has cleaned that up. He’s got a bigger body, so I think they’ll use him more than their other wide receivers in the red zone, and he’s also better than Baldwin on vertical routes. They’re playing Carolina this week. You might recall Kearse caught the game-winning touchdown at that stadium last year, about 43 yards down the right sideline. Kearse is good enough, I think, to be on a roster in a typical 12-team league. Those in dynasty formats an think about Paul Richardson. With Harvin gone, Richardson is now the No. 3 receiver in Seattle, and I think he could develop into something special. He was very productive at Colorado. He’s tiny, like DeSean Jackson or Marvin Harrison, so when the Seahawks selected him in the second round, you’ve got to figure they think he can be really good. You also mentioned Justin Hunter. If we’re talking a here-and-now league, I will be put him No. 2 in this group, behind Baldwin. If we’re looking at a dynasty format, I will take him ahead of all of these receivers, on the chance he can maybe harness all of his immense physical skills.
Question 8
I am leading league in points this year, but always trying to make my team better. I have Matt Ryan, Gio, Lynch and Lamar Miller. Was thinking of packaging Ryan and a RB for either Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers. Tried Miller, but got denied. Am I giving up too much by putting Gio or Lynch in that package? Worried about Ryan staying healthy behind that O LINE.
ERIC FEINGOLD (Garden City, NY)
It’s that kind of outside-the-box innovative thinking that made our country great. And I think that’s the way you run a team – no player is sacred, and you mull over at every trade and waiver pickup. In this case, you would be trading away depth but improving your starting lineup. It could be a “win-win” trade for both teams. I don’t have the projections for your league in front of me, but using standard PPR values, you would get almost 5 points better at quarterback. I’ve got Luck at 26.7 points per game, and Ryan down at 22.0. At running back, I’ve got Miller only a half point behind Bernard and just over 2 points behind Lynch. So numerically, it looks like you’re getting about 2-3 points better in your starting lineup. You lose your running back depth. You have to put your chips on the table and say that you believe in Lamar Miller. That’s a risk. But at the same time (as you point out) you get out of having to worry about Matt Ryan getting broken in half. I’m not saying yeah or nay, but it’s one I would think about.
Question 9
Ian, long-time subscriber here with a question on the 10/22 Weekly. If you looked at the rankings only and saw Branden Oliver ranked 8th overall among RBs you would assume he was an automatic start in for a good game. However when you read the game breakdown it states "definitely a poor matchup for Oliver" and you speak specifically to the strength of Denver's run defense and how San Diego isn't running the ball well. The game forecast does not seem to support a top-10 ranking. Should Oliver potentially be ranked 7-10 spots lower?
Chris Tkachuk (Merchantville, NJ)
Sorry, I’m late to the party on this one (since we’re now talking about last night’s game). Apologies if you felt you were getting mixed messages. As one hand, it was a poor matchup for the running game. San Diego doesn’t run the ball all that well, and Denver is really good against the run. So it looked lousy on that front. But we must keep in mind that Oliver (this week) is one of the only full-time running backs in the league. He was going to be out there on almost every play, so even if you were going to project the Chargers for some ungodly low rushing total (maybe 80-90 yards), you would figure Oliver would get about 80 percent of those yards, and you’re looking at a guy who’ll run for 65-70 yards. If they score a rushing touchdown, he’ll almost certainly be the guy punching it in. And whatever rushing number you decide on, you have to build in some kind of hedge that you’re wrong. Think about how well the Chargers ran the ball at Denver last year. The Chargers ran for 162 yards against the Jets three weeks ago, then they ran for 116 against the Raiders. They had a rushing touchdown in each of those games. They were down at 69 rushing yards against Kansas City last week, when their offense couldn’t get on the field. So for this game, I went with San Diego rushing for 105 yards, with a 62 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. Oliver (being their only real back) clocked in just short of 80 percent of those totals. So on my board, I had him at 82 rushing yards, with almost a 50 percent chance of a rushing touchdown. In hindsight, we can now see those projections were ridiculously high. If I could back it up and do it again (if the teams were playing again tonight) I wish I had gone with 85 yards and about a 50 percent chance of a rushing touchdown (putting Oliver at about 65 rushing yards, with a 40 percent chance of a rushing touchdown). The other dynamic driving his value is his receiving ability. He’s a huge part of their passing game, catching dumpoff balls. He’s not only starting in place of Ryan Mathews, he’s also filling the Danny Woodhead role. So it was pretty clear he was going to catch 4-6 passes. That receiving production was going to make him a pretty safe choice in a PPR format. And he exceeded expectations there, catching 7 passes last night. With those 7 receptions, Oliver (as poorly as he played) salvaged a respectable night in PPR leagues.
Question 10
Ok Ian. You knew this discussion was eventually going to come. I was with you on the Julian Edelman assessment in preseason, especially in PPR leagues. During the first few weeks he was proving you right, but New England was one dimensional and losing. Since then they've gone to more of a hurry up offense using more down the field passes to LaFell. Edelman stats have definitely slipped. What do you foresee his value from this point forward?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
Agree with you. His value has dipped some in the last few weeks. Was disappointing to see him drop those two balls in the second half of the Jets game. Brandon LaFell is playing well and becoming part of that offense. Rob Gronkowski seems to be healthy and coming on. They’ve got Shane Vereen. They were working in Brian Tyms as a deep threat at Buffalo (though he oddly wasn’t even in the game play against the Jets). So this could be a deal where Edelman simply isn’t as good as I thought he was going to be. I thought he might catch 120 passes and 8 TDs. Now he’s looking more like a guy who might catch 95-100 passes and 4-5 TDs. And with Edelman, he’s catching mostly short balls, so 100 catches might leave him with about 800-900 yards. With all of these receivers, they potentially could benefit from the injury to Stevan Ridley. With Ridley down, the Patriots might have to rely more on the pass going forward.
Question 11
My question centers around Doug Martin. I have been offered Martin and in return the other team wants Trent Richardson. I like Martin but he is always hurt. Richardson has been really productive the last 4 weeks. It seems that he is coming on.
JOHN SHELBROCK (Frankenmuth, MI)
Doug Martin has been terrible. Averaging under 3 yards per carry. Bobby Rainey has been chipping into his playing time, and now they’ve got Charles Sims coming back, just around the corner. Sims has been on IR all year but is practicing now. Richardson, meanwhile, has been playing a little better lately. He’s not a great runner (and he’s sharing time with Ahmad Bradshaw) but that’s a good team, so there are more stats to go around. And with Richardson, I think you also get about 25 receiving yards per game. I don’t think you’ll find too many people who would prefer Martin over Richardson right now.
Question 12
I am in a 14-team keeper league where we can trade next year's draft picks as part of trades. I am currently 5-1 and in first place and I have the opportunity to trade for Philip Rivers which is a definite upgrade from my current roster of Dalton, Glennon, Bortles, and Geno Smith. Is it worth a #1 or #2 draft pick? I'm especially concerned about his week 15 and week 16 matchups, which would be playoffs. I was thinking about trying to pry the Ravens D from him if I make this deal. They look like they have good matchups those same weeks.
BRUCE HOFFMAN (Douglassville, PA)
I don’t like giving up first-round draft picks. And as you point out, his Week 15-16 matchups aren’t very good. Rivers managed to finish with 252 yards and 3 TDs at Denver last night, but he didn’t play very well – a lot of that was superfluous production. Rivers played against the Broncos three times last year and didn’t throw for more than 221 yards in any of those games.
Question 13
Great stuff as always. Not a question but more of a comment. You have in your redrafter update that the Eagles will probably have Jason Kelce back this week. All the reports out of Philly is that he ahead of schedule but won't be ready for another couple weeks.
Paul Karrmann (West Chester, PA)
Thanks for the heads up. I saw that he had returned to practice on Tuesday and figured he was on his way back. As you point out, it’s more likely that he’ll return to the starting lineup in Week 9 or even Week 10.
Question 14
I have a trade offer to contemplate: Pierre Garçon for Jerick McKinnon or Chris Ivory. I'm desperate for rb as I've been unable to replace AP. Your thoughts? I think I could trade Doug Baldwin for either of those backs as well.
mark flaugh (Export, PA)
Sounds good to me. McKinnon has a pair of 100-yard games, and he hasn’t even be a starter for a month yet. I think he’ll also have about 20 receiving yards in a lot of games. On the downside, they’ll spell him with Matt Asiata, and I think Asiata is far more likely to carry the ball if it’s at the 1- or 2-yard line. But I like McKinnon. I also have interest in Chris Ivory. He’s one of those guys who’s never gotten enough pub because he was originally an undrafted free agent, but the dude can play. When he was in New Orleans, he outplayed Mark Ingram every year. With the Jets, he lead them to upsets over the Patriots and Saints last year with 100-yard games, and now he’s decisively outplaying Chris Johnson. Ivory is averaging 76 yards (62 run, 14 rec), compared to Johnson’s 46 (37 run, 8 rec). If you were to put together a list of nastiest, most violent runners in the league – guys who punish defenders – Marshawn Lynch and Ivory would be the only two guys I’d put in the top tier.
Question 15
As it happens, my fantasy team has gone from a surprising success to a dumpster fire. I won't recap all of the problematic moves, but after a run of prioritizing Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews and Bishop Sankey over Jerick McKinnon, Ronnie Hillman and Tre Mason, I've ended up with the following pupu platter on my bench – Sankey, Patterson, Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham and Bryce Brown. I've got to drop 1, if not 2 of them, this week to fill other roles. So, my question is, who needs to go? Current roster at the skill positions is Forte, Joique, Julio and Garcon. I'm leaning one of the NYG WRs due to redundancy, but it's not like Sankey or Patterson have exactly shone.
Drew Bankston (Tyler, TX)
Who’s running the ball for you in Week 9? Joique Bell, Bishop Sankey and Bryce Brown are all on byes. Beckham has caught 3 TDs in three games since he started playing. He’s a guy who needs to stick around. If I were in your position, I’d probably get both of the Giants receivers, figuring that at least one of them should be good going forward. Cordarrelle Patterson is insanely talented, but I see nothing that indicates to me that they’ll get him going this year. They’re not getting him the ball downfield, and they’re not making any big effort to get the ball in his hands. Bryce Brown should come off the bench this week for the Bills, and I’d like to see what he can do. So I guess I’d keep him over Sankey.
Question 16
I am in a standard 12-team dynasty league. We can roster up to 6 running backs per team. My current running backs are Shane Vereen, DeMarco Murray, Jerick McKinnon, Isaiah Crowell, Joseph Randle and Jeremy Hill. I picked up Charles Simms at the beginning of the year and put him on IR. I can keep him for a 16-round pick next year. With Doug Martin not performing and Rainey being just another guy, is it worth adding him and cutting Randle once he is activated?
BRETT CARON (Lewis Center, OH)
It’s worth considering. It could possibly happen. But I think the probability is a lot higher than Murray gets hurt. With him being on your roster, I think the far smarter option is to keep Randle around in case you need to plug him in for 2-3 games (or more).
Question 17
Kyle Rudolph is on the waiver wire in one of my online leagues. I have Dwayne Allen. What do you predict for him when he returns. Will he be better than Allen?
Dave (MOJO) Smith (Walls, MS)
Allen has caught 5 touchdowns in seven games. You don’t want to mess with that.
