BUFFALO (at Miami):
The Bills put up 43 points against the Jets two games ago, but big-picture, this is a team that’s been held to 17 points or fewer in five of its other six most recent games. It’s not a high-powered offense, and here it faces one of the league’s better defenses. Miami has allowed only two of its last six opponents over 14 points: Green Bay (27) and Detroit (20), both of whom struggled for much of those contests. The Bills shouldn’t do much in this game. They scored 29 points in the Week 2 win, but did so with just 315 yards of total offense and one offensive touchdown. ... Fred Jackson returned from a groin injury to face Kansas City, but wasn’t fully healthy, touching the ball only 7 times. This is the Thursday game, so Jackson doesn’t have a lot of recovery time (though we do expect he’ll play; he got in a limited practice on Tuesday). Anthony Dixon might get just as many carries, and Bryce Brown should get both carries and passing-downs work. He was the most effective back against Kansas City -- he’s more talented than Dixon and probably Jackson -- but also lost a fumble just short of the end zone in that game. The Bills continued to use him after that, but ball security and negative runs have been problems for Brown, so he’ll probably continue to see his chances limited. Jackson’s health, meanwhile, should result in Dixon continuing to get some of those inside carries, including near the goal line. Also working against these three backs is that Miami has been stout against the run (10th). The Dolphins have allowed only 4 rushing touchdowns, tied for 2nd-best. Jackson (24 yards) didn’t do much in the earlier meeting; C.J. Spiller (69 yards) was more effective, which suggests Brown, who’s most like Spiller, will have more success in this matchup. But touches will likely be divided three ways, making it hard for any to make an impact. Jackson and Spiller combined to rush for 188 yards in a home win late last season, and Jackson scored in both games in the series, but that history doesn’t seem particularly relevant right now. ... Miami ranks No. 3 against the pass, and that’s awfully impressive. The Dolphins have played more than half their games against Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and the three best quarterbacks in the NFC North, so it’s not like they’ve been doing it all against struggling rookies. So it’s a poor situation for Kyle Orton. Orton, at least, has been pretty consistent, averaging 277 yards and 2 TDs in his five games -- at least 238 and 1 TD in every game, and multiple scores in
This report is taken from today's Week 11 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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three of those. He’ll take some sacks (18 in five games), and Miami has a good pass rush (28 sacks, 4th), but he’s thrown only 3 interceptions, so he’s been able to avoid mistakes. Buffalo’s ground game has struggled, so Orton will likely have to lead the way in this game. But the memory of this defense really shutting down Philip Rivers in its last home game is fresh, and both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford had to work for their production, struggling for much of those games. EJ Manuel threw for just 202 yards and 1 TD in the earlier meeting, and that was in Buffalo. Orton’s better than Manuel, but still, a below-average situation for the veteran. ... Sammy Watkins had a quiet game against Kansas City (4 for 27); he wasn’t even certain to play after injuring his groin in practice. But Watkins himself says he’s fine, and he was able to play almost every snap last week, so we’re proceeding as if he’ll be out there at his usual level of participation (he practiced fully on Tuesday). Watkins had a breakout game in the earlier meeting, catching 8 balls for 117 yards and a touchdown. Miami has been very tough against opposing wideouts this season, allowing just 6 TDs to the position in nine games. But both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate went over 100 yards last week, and Watkins is a similarly talented guy. The other starter is Robert Woods, and he’s putting up modest numbers. He’s averaging 38 yards per game, and has been over 52 only once since the earlier meeting (in which he caught 1 pass for 5 yards). Not much better right now than Chris Hogan, who ran a nice route on a 25-yard touchdown last week, part of a 5 for 57 day. Woods went 6 for 52 in that game. Given the difficult matchup, Watkins is the only player to really consider, although he’ll be dealing with Miami’s best cornerback, Brent Grimes. ... Scott Chandler had big games against San Diego (5 for 74) and New England (6 for 105), but has been at 36 yards or fewer in every other game. Just 2 for 27 in the earlier meeting. Miami has allowed nearly as many touchdowns to tight ends (4) as wideouts (6), but Chandler isn’t a big part of the offense. ... Dan Carpenter used to play for the Dolphins, and knocked in 5 field goals against them in the earlier meeting. He’s averaging 8 kicking points per game. The Dolphins, however, have allowed only 8 field goals in their other eight games combined. They’re surrendering just over 6 kicking points per game. Carpenter at least knows his way around this stadium. ... The Bills Defense leads the league with 34 sacks, and Miami just lost left tackle Branden Albert for the season. Straight off the numbers, Buffalo should get 3 sacks in this game, but 4 is a possibility. That’s how many they got off him in the game up in Buffalo. C.J. Spiller had a kickoff return touchdown in that game, and current return man Leodis McKelvin is above-average in that regard.
