GREEN BAY (vs New England)
Four weeks in a row, the Patriots have played against quarterbacks with good ability -- above-average passers -- and four weeks in a row their defense has won decisively. Bill Belichick and his staff are a step ahead of most of the league in regards to developing players and designing coverages.
| Quarterbacks against Patriots | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passer | Pct | Yards | TD | Int |
| Cutler | 67% | 227 | 3 | 1 |
| Manning | 60% | 438 | 2 | 2 |
| Luck | 59% | 303 | 2 | 1 |
| Stafford | 39% | 264 | 0 | 1 |
Cutler had a lot of superfluous second half production after the game was long out of reach. Manning and Luck both made it over 300 yards, but both were held under 60 percent passing, which is remarkable against that kind of quarterback. And Stafford was simply a disaster. So hats off to New England’s defense. So it makes sense to conclude that Aaron Rodgers won’t be as good as usual in this game. That said, the game’s at Lambeau, and he’s been solid gold at home, where he hasn’t thrown an interception since late in the
This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
(If you're looking for a cheat sheet to evaluate players' year-long values, you need the Fantasy Index Redrafter.)
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
2012 season. They’re 5-0 at home this year, and he’s thrown at least 3 TDs in all of those games. How do you bet against that? And while we can point to successes the Patriots have had in specific games, the overall body of work shows that they’ve given up 18 TD passes, which is only average, and they’ve allowing 257 passing yards per game, also a middle-of-the-pack number. If you’ve got Rodgers, you start him. We’re putting him just a little lower than we would against a more regular defense at Lambeau. ... It plays out similarly with the wide receivers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Looking at New England’s body of work, it makes sense to slot them lower than usual. In our eyes, the Patriots have played against nine “top level” wide receivers this year. They’ve had some success against all of them. Only two of them went over 100 yards (the two Denver guys) and that was a game where the Patriots really took control in the first half. Only two of the nine scored, and A.J. Green was really negated for the vast majority of that game -- caught a few balls late. Almost half of these guys caught fewer than half of the balls thrown their way, which is telling.
| Receivers against Patriots | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tar | No | Yds | TD |
| A.Green | 7 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| S.Watkins | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| B.Marshall | 10 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| A.Jeffery | 8 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| E.Sanders | 16 | 10 | 151 | 0 |
| D.Thomas | 11 | 7 | 127 | 0 |
| T.Hilton | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| G.Tate | 11 | 4 | 97 | 0 |
| C.Johnson | 10 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
With the coaching and the scheme, this isn’t a defense that’s going to let Nelson slice them open for a 70-yard touchdown on the first possession, like he seems to do so often. The Patriots have Darrelle Revis, but he’s not going to shadow one person. He didn’t do that against the Bears, Broncos or Lions, who all have a pair of good receivers. Sometimes they’ll stick him on Nelson, sometimes he’ll be on Cobb, and he’ll even wind up with Davante Adams at times. Ultimately, the correct play is probably to slot Nelson and Cobb a few spots lower than usual. But these receivers are simply too good to be left out of a typical fantasy lineup. Nelson has scored in all five of Green Bay’s home games; Cobb has scored in 4 of 5. Nelson averages 20 more yards per game, but in the last eight games, they both average 89 yards per game. ... We’re putting Andrew Quarless a little higher than usual. If the Patriots are successful with some of their voodoo coverages against Nelson/Cobb, some of the production might trickle down to him. New England has allowed 18 TD passes this year, and they’ve gone to a pretty even mix of wide receivers (7), tight ends (5) and running backs (6). ... Continuing on the WR-TE-RB thought, Eddie Lacy looks more likely to catch a touchdown than usual. He’s a pretty good receiver anyway (he’s caught touchdowns three weeks in a row) and the Patriots seem to do things defensively to cause teams to throw to their running backs. Of the 18 TD passes allowed by this defense, a third of them have gone to running backs. Strictly in terms of running, it’s a slightly below-average matchup for Lacy. New England ranks 14th in run defense, and it’s allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns all year. At least the game’s at Lambeau, where Lacy has scored 6 TDs in his last four games. ... Mason Crosby has been a top-10 kicker, and he’s better at home, scoring 9.8 points per game (versus only 6.5 on the road). But weather can be a problem at Lambeau, and the Patriots have been playing solid defense of late. During its seven-game winning streak, New England has allowed an average of 6.5 kicking points. ... The numbers suggest the <b?Packers Defense is only average. It’s got 27 sacks, which is slightly above average; but the Patriots have allowed only 16. It’s got 15 interceptions, which ties for 2nd, but Tom Brady has thrown only 6. Green Bay has scored 5 TDs on returns of kicks and takeaways, but the Patriots have allowed only one.
