KANSAS CITY (at Arizona):
Kansas City is having problems offensively. Only three teams have gained fewer yards, and it’s scored only 2 TDs in five of its last eight games. Arizona, on the other hand, is very sound defensively. The Cardinals got shredded by Peyton Manning at Mile High, but otherwise this defense has allowed only 17 touchdowns in 11 games. Trends indicate Kansas City won’t score more than 2 TDs. They might even get stuck with just one. Arizona has held four of its last seven opponents under 2 TDs. ... The problems start with Alex Smith. He isn’t comfortable throwing downfield. He doesn’t want to challenge defenses with longer throws to receivers who may or may not be open. He’d rather settle for the safe, checkdown completions to his backs and tight ends. He’s completing 65 percent (up from 61 last year) but not enough of those completions are doing any damage. He’s averaging only 197 passing yards per game (he averaged 221 last year), and he’s thrown only 15 touchdowns. Last year he threw 23 TDs in 15 games. At some point, Smith or Andy Reid should decide to open things up and start trying to do more with his wide receivers. Maybe that happens in Weeks 15-16 against the Raiders and Steelers. But tough to envision that happening on Sunday. Arizona is unusually strong at cornerback with Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. With those guys in the secondary, Smith will want no part of trying to force the ball to Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery. Bowe is a reasonably talented receiver, but as a bigger, slower guy, he’s exactly the kind of receiver that Peterson can completely take out of a game. So we expect Smith will be throwing his usual safe, short stuff underneath, finishing with about 200 yards and a touchdown. Now Arizona, you might notice is allowing 278 passing yards per game; only six teams have allowed more. But that’s built on four games where they allowed over 350 -- Denver, Washington, Philadelphia and Atlanta. In all four of those games, the opponents challenged Arizona’s defense with downfield throws to the wide receivers. Smith won’t do that, so look instead at what
This report is taken from today's Week 14 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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Arizona’s done in its other eight games -- 216 passing yards, on average, with 7 TDs in those eight games. Kansas City, remarkably, hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver all year, and that streak should continue for at least another week. ... If Bowe and Avery are just decoys, you can be sure the tight ends will play a big role in the offense. Travis Kelce probably will lead them in receiving. For the year, he’s averaging 44 yards per game; in two thirds of their games, he’s had more yards than Bowe (who leads the team at 52 yards per game). Anthony Fasano isn’t used as extensively, but it’s easier for them to get him open in the red zone because defenses perceive Fasano to more usually be a blocker. Both of these tight ends have caught 4 TDs. Kelce/Fasano work against a secondary that’s allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three of the past four weeks. ... It looks like a lesser matchup for Jamaal Charles. For starters, he’s got a bruised knee. The team seems confident that he’ll play, but with him being at less than full strength, it could reduce his effectiveness, and they might look to work in Knile Davis more than usual. More notably, Arizona is really tough against the run. Only five defenses have allowed fewer rushing yards, and only one team (Kansas City itself) has allowed fewer rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals had a slip-up game last week, somehow (inexplicably) letting Atlanta run for 142 yards, but the previous week they held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards. In Week 9, they were the first defense to hold DeMarco Murray under 100 yards (he gained 79 against them). Charles has averaged 88 rushing yards in his last nine games, but a good chance he gets held to about 60 in this one. Charles also will contribute in the passing game; probably more so than usual, given that the run might stall and the wide receivers won’t be a factor. He’s averaged 27 receiving yards in his last six games. But Arizona is one of only three teams that hasn’t allowed a running back to catch a touchdown. ... Cairo Santos looks like a lesser kicking option. Arizona has allowed a league-high 9 field goals in the last two weeks, but that’s a remarkably good defense. The Cardinals allowed only 58 kicking points in their first 10 games, close to the fewest in the league. Kansas City’s offense has really bogged down recently, with Santos scoring only 6, 5, 6, 8 and 4 points in his last five games. For the year he’s at 79 points, a bottom-10 number. ... The Kansas City Defense has a strong pass rush (only six teams have more sacks) but it’s unlikely to go crazy this week. Arizona tends to do an awfully good job of getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands. Drew Stanton has been sacked only 8 times in six games. While Stanton has thrown 5 interceptions in his last three games, Kansas City has been notoriously poor all year at coming up with takeaways -- just 4 interceptions and 6 fumbles in 12 games. Arizona has turned the ball over only 11 times in 12 games, so for combined turnover potential, this looks like the 3rd-worst matchup on the board this week. Kansas City is far more likely than most teams to score on a kick return. It’s one of only two teams that ranks in the top 5 in both kickoff and punt returns. No touchdowns on punt returns yet, but Kansas City has a league-high 7 returns over 20 yards.
