PITTSBURGH (vs. K.C.):
The Steelers are at home for their final two games, and that’s a very good thing. That offense has scored over twice as many touchdowns when it’s been playing at Heinz Field -- 24 in six games, versus only 15 touchdowns in eight games on the road. The Steelers have scored 30-plus points in all but one of their games at home.
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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Kansas City is a worthy defensive adversary. In our eyes, it’s played against four elite offenses this year, and it’s held up pretty well in all of those games (3 TDs allowed at Denver, and 2 TDs in each of their other three games -- San Diego, New England and the Denver rematch). So for ballpark purposes, we’re expecting about 3 TDs from Pittsburgh this week, with a scoring in the mid-to-high 20s. A below-average situation for the Steelers (relative to what they usually do at home) but definitely still a top offense for Week 16. ... There’s some unusually funky dynamics at play in this game, particularly with the running game. On the one hand, Kansas City at times recently has appeared to have the very worst run defense in the history of pro football. Latavius Murray ran for 112 yards on 4 carries against them. Kerwynn Williams came off the bench to run for 100 yards against them. C.J. Anderson went over 160 yards. By that measure, it’s logical to wonder if LeVeon Bell can make a run at 200 combined yards in this game. He might be the best runner in football right now, and he’s also a big part of their passing game, averaging 55 receiving yards per game. Bell also has scored 7 TDs in his last four games. If you look at the stats from the last 20 years, you’ll see that huge games by running backs are a lot more common late in the year. At the same time, however, there’s the weird trend that while Kansas City simply can’t stop any running back, it turns into the best run defense in the league around the end zone. Murray ran for 2 TDs against them, but Kansas City otherwise hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year. Over 90 percent of the touchdowns allowed by that defense have come on passes. It might have something to do with how they line up (consistently leaving receivers in man coverage or whatever) because of the 16 plays against them from the 1-, 2- or 3-yard line, only 3 of those plays were runs. None gained any yards. This is a defense, apparently, that begs you to pass against them. Not that anybody is thinking about sitting Bell, but he looks like a rare running back who might simultaneously go over 150 combined yards and not get in the end zone. ... Ben Roethlisberger is operating at a Brees-Brady-Manning type level right now. He’s thrown for 340-plus yards in six of his last seven games, and that’s something that probably none of those guys have even done (we’ll try and run a check on that later in the week). And when it comes to putting the ball in the end zone, Roethlisberger has also been a Hall of Fame type guy when he’s played at home. He’s thrown only 9 TDs in his eight games on the road, but he’s thrown 21 TDs in six games at Heinz Field. That’s over 3 per game. The only slight asterisk there is the quality of competition. Lots of tomato cans on the schedule. The one really good pass defense he faced (Cleveland) held him to 1 TD pass. This is a very good defense he’ll see on Sunday. Kansas City is allowing only 214 passing yards per game, 2nd-best in the league. In four games against superstar quarterbacks (Brady, Rivers and Manning twice) Kansas City didn’t allow 250 passing yards in any of those games. But part of their pass success can be attributed to how bad they’ve been against the run, and note that they’re now operating without their Pro Bowl safety, Eric Berry. And as the reverse of the running trend, note that while Kansas City is unusually good at limiting passing production, it’s paradoxically allowed 21 TD passes versus only 2 TD runs. With those trends in mind, the correct call (we think) is to put down Roethlisberger for 280 yards and 2-3 TD passes. ... The matchup looks fine for the passing game, so we’ll sign off on Antonio Brown as maybe the best receiver in all the land. He’s in the race to lead the league in catches and receiving yards, and all but 3 of his 12 TDs have come in home games. Martavis Bryant busted onto the scene with 6 TDs in his first four games, but he’s cooled off some. If not for the surprise 94-yard touchdown late in the Cincinnati game, he’d be on a four-game streak with no touchdowns and not more than 31 yards in any of those. (This playing with a quarterback who keeps putting up 340-plus yards). So he’s a hit-or-miss guy. Markus Wheaton has been finishing with a few more catches and yards but doesn’t pack the same punch as a scorer. ... With Heath Miller, you’re hoping they call his number around the goal line. Miller’s averaging 47 yards per game, but he’s caught only 3 of the team’s 30 TD passes. Don’t give up on him just yet, because of the 21 touchdowns Kansas City has allowed, 8 have gone to tight ends. So, low is 10 percent, KC is at 38 percent, and you pick a likelihood number somewhere in between. ... Shaun Suisham has been a steady scorer recently, with five straight games scoring multiple field goals. He should keep that going. Kansas City has been unusually good -- the best -- at stalling drives in field goal range. This is the only defense that’s given up more field goals (30) than touchdowns (23). Suisham has been a top-10 kicker, while Kansas City has been a bottom-10 defense against this position. Blend those numbers and it grades out as the 5th-best kicker matchup on the board this week. Weather will need to be evaluated later in the week. ... The Steelers Defense has scored 6 TDs on defensive plays, tying for most in the league. But such a touchdown looks unlikely this week. Alex Smith is awfully careful with the ball. In his 29 starts for Kansas City, Smith has thrown only 13 interceptions, and none of those have been returned for scores. Kansas City, in fact, hasn’t allowed a touchdown return of any kind (kick, interception, fumble) in the 30 games that Andy Reid has been in charge. Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback in terms of taking sacks, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have much of a pass rush (more sacks than only five other teams).
