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Ian Allan

Strength of schedule

Plugging Vegas numbers into SOS calculator

A Vegas sportsbook has released over-under win totals for 2015. When trying to forecast future strength of schedule, these projections are more useful than 2014 win-loss records. These projections account for weaker teams that happened to get lucky, or good teams that were derailed by injuries.

The Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos and Packers project to reach double-digit wins, while the Browns, Jaguars, Bucs, Titans, Raiders and Washington are projected to reach double-digit losses.

The Year 2015 over-under win totals are as follows:

TeamWins
New England11.0
Seattle11.0
Green Bay10.5
Denver10.0
Dallas9.5
Indianapolis9.5
Baltimore9.0
New Orleans9.0
Philadelphia9.0
Atlanta8.5
Buffalo8.5
Carolina8.5
Cincinnati8.5
Detroit8.5
Houston8.5
Kansas City8.5
Pittsburgh8.5
San Diego8.5
San Francisco8.5
Arizona8.0
Miami8.0
NY Giants8.0
St. Louis7.5
Chicago7.0
Minnesota6.5
NY Jets6.5
Cleveland6.0
Washington6.0
Jacksonville5.5
Tampa Bay5.0
Tennessee5.0
Oakland4.5
(Source: CG Technologies)

Pretty standard stuff.

I took those CG Technologies numbers and plugged them into the 2015 schedule. It shakes out this way …

2015 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Vegas)
RkTeamWLTPctPrevious
1.Atlanta1211350.473(104-150-2)
2.Indianapolis1211351.475(106-149-1)
3.New Orleans1211351.475(109-145-2)
4.Houston1221340.477(106-148-2)
5.Tennessee1221341.479(111-144-1)
6.•• San Diego1241320.484(132-123-1)
7.New England1251311.490(122-134-0)
8.•• Baltimore1261300.492(137-117-2)
9.NY Jets1261301.494(125-131-0)
10.Tampa Bay1271291.498(108-146-2)
11.Carolina1271291.498(111-145-0)
12.•• Kansas City1271291.498(139-116-1)
13.•• Denver1281280.500(138-117-1)
14.Jacksonville1281281.502(118-137-1)
15.Philadelphia1281281.502(121-134-1)
16.Green Bay1281281.502(135-120-1)
17.Chicago1281281.502(136-120-0)
18.NY Giants1291270.504(122-133-1)
19.Buffalo1291270.504(124-131-1)
20.Cleveland1301260.508(138-116-2)
21.Oakland1301260.508(139-116-1)
22.Miami1301261.510(126-130-0)
23.St. Louis1301261.510(141-114-1)
24.Seattle1301261.510(142-112-2)
25.Cincinnati1301261.510(144-112-0)
26.• Dallas1321241.518(119-136-1)
27.• Washington1321241.518(122-133-1)
28.• Detroit1321241.518(135-121-0)
29.San Francisco1341220.523(143-112-1)
30.Pittsburgh1341220.523(147-107-2)
31.• Minnesota1351210.527(138-118-0)
32.Arizona1361201.533(142-113-1)

The Falcons and Colts still project to play the easiest schedules in the league, but are some notable changes.

Dallas drops from having the 9th-easiest schedule to tying for the 6th-hardest. Washington’s schedule takes a similar swing. Minnesota and Detroit’s schedules also drop by 9-10 spots. All of those teams are tagged with a black dot.

Baltimore and Kansas City seem to benefit the most. The Ravens move up from 21st to tying for 8th, while Kansas City moves up from 25th to tying for 12th. San Diego moves up from 17th to the top half dozne, while Denver moves up from having a bottom-10 schedule to tying for 13th.

Those teams are all flagged with the double black dots.

That is all.

—Ian Allan

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