MIAMI (vs Houston):
One game after firing their coach, the Dolphins are a win away from .500, and it should happen. They’re at home, they’ve got a little momentum going, and they’re facing a defense that’s underachieved all year. The Texans allowed only 9 points in a home win against Jacksonville, but otherwise this defense has allowed at least 3 TDs in every game. Overall, this looks like a much different offense now, with a much stronger commitment to the running game (more sets with two tight ends) and more downfield passing. Under Joe Philbin, a lot of the runs seemed to go sideways, now they’re hitting more downhill-type plays. And a lot fewer of the 5-yard completions underneath -- they’re trying to drive it on more slant routes 10-15 yards downfield. ... Lamar Miller is worth consideration. He was underused and ineffective in the first four games, but it looks like the ground game is trending up. He ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries at Tennessee, part of a 180-yard effort. That production came against a bottom-10 run defense, but it’s a huge increase for an offense that entered last week ranked next-to-last in rushing, down at 69 yards per game. It’s apparent that ...
This report is taken from today's Week 7 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... the Dolphins will make a much stronger effort to run the ball now. They’re getting an average run defense this time. The Texans rank 17th against the run thus far. They haven’t been terrible against anybody, but nor have they really shut down any opponents. We’re conservatively putting the Dolphins down for 110 yards (slightly below average). The Dolphins definitely grade out below average in rushing touchdowns. They’ve scored over 80 percent of their touchdowns on passes, while Houston historically plays some of the best goal-line run defense in the league. Other than one game against Atlanta, where everything went wrong and they gave up 135 rushing yards and 4 TD runs, the Texans in the Bill O’Brien Era have allowed 39 touchdown passes versus only 8 TD runs. ... Ryan Tannehill looks solid. He’s averaging 269 passing yards, and he’s thrown 2 TDs four games in a row. He’s facing a defense that’s had far too many coverage breakdowns. The Texans are allowing 250 passing yards per game, with 12 TDs (2 per game). They were similar last year -- 259 yards per game, with 28 TDs. The Texans have held only two quarterbacks under 240 yards. Cam Newton and flu-ridden Matt Hasselbeck, and both of those teams had success running the ball (and those guys also tossed 2 TDs each). In the Tennessee game, Tannehill hit on a lot more downfield passes than he ever did in the Philbin offense, and a lot of those balls were on target. Tannehill looks good. ... One week after the coaching change, it looks like Dan Campbell likes Rishard Matthews a lot more than Joe Philbin did. Matthews played a lot more against Tennessee, and it came at the expense of Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills. Matthews and Jarvis Landry; those are the two receivers who should be catching most of the passes. Matthews seems to fit this offense the best. He’s got the big body, ideal for running the deeper, downfield balls that were called a lot more in the Tennessee game. Matthews caught 6 passes for 85 yards at Tennessee -- caught all 6 passes thrown to him. Landry was used a little differently in this game. He caught a season-low 3 passes, but he averaged a season-high 14 yards per catch. He averaged under 10 yards per reception in the first four games, when most everything was a short crossing route. In this game, only 1 of the 4 passes thrown to Landry was one of those short plunkers. Too early to say for sure, but it looks like Landry might not be a target monster quite so much in this offense. But there should be a bigger payoff with his fewer receptions. Also note that Landry is an above-average punt returner and has carried the ball twice for 24-plus yards in back-to-back games. The other wide receivers in this game didn’t play nearly as much -- Stills was their No. 3, and Jennings and DeVante Parker hardly played at all. ... Jordan Cameron is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league. Or is he? They’ve been sending him plenty of passes this year, but he hasn’t been very effective. He’s caught only 15 of the 36 passes thrown his way. Part of this can be attributed to him running more downfield routes than most tight ends, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong chemistry between Cameron and Tannehill. In Sunday’s game, they used a lot more formations with two tight ends (with Dion Sims also out there) and Sims caught all 4 of the passes thrown to him. Cameron had twice as many targets but caught only 3 balls (with 2 interceptions). They both caught touchdowns. ... With the team seemingly on the rise, Andrew Franks looks like a viable Week 7 kicker. Unproven, and some of the other young kickers have choked their way out of the league. But Franks has held up so far, and it’s a favorable situation. ... The Dolphins Defense might be on the rise. It has good personnel, and it got a sizeable spark from the coaching change -- 6 sacks and 2 interceptions at Tennessee, including a Pick Six. It had only 1 sack and 3 interceptions in the first four games combined. But not a great matchup this week. Brian Hoyer is seemingly a lesser quarterback, but he’s been pretty smart with the ball thus far -- only one sack per 23 pass plays, and just 2 interceptions in 131 attempts.
