Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is there any chance for underachievers like Eddie Lacy and Brandin Cooks to turn it around? What do we make of possible up-and-comers like Kevin White and Christine Michael? And when a defense is red-hot like Denver, isn't it overdue to tail off?
Question 1
Is Kevin White worth picking up and stashing on IR (we are allowed 2) for the later part of this year or fantasy playoffs? Or should I just wait on until next year? How well do you think he will produce if/when he comes back?
ANDREW DAMIANI (WESTFIELD, IN)
I saw a report last week that indicated he was running on the side. I think he’s an intriguing guy. He’s a physical freak – a big, fast guy who can break tackles. Athletically, he’s like a young Terrell Owens or Andre Johnson. The debate between Amari Cooper and Kevin White back on draft day, recall, was the guy who’s the more polished route runner and receiver (Cooper) or the guy who’s the way better athlete (White). He’s raw. I don’t know how much he knows about playing the position. He caught 18 or 20 balls in one game last year, but if you go and re-watch that game, most of those are like extended handoffs. He’s standing out there as a wide receiver, and the quarterback just takes one step back and fires him the ball. But I will be very interested to see what the Bears can do with them. Jay Cutler and Adam Gase have been a good combo so far – they have some ability to throw the ball around. White isn’t coming back from an ACL injury. He had some kind of stress fracture or broken bone in his shin. He should be fine now, and they might be able to do some nice things with him.
Question 2
Please address the Brandin Cooks letdown this week. Do we have any hope for a turnaround the rest of the season?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
He’s a talented guy. No doubt about that. We saw that in the preseason. I remember the game at Baltimore, where he almost scored touchdowns on back-to-back plays. On one of them, he ran by the defensive back to catch about a 25-yard touchdown, and on the other he took a short pass and was able to use after-the-catch elusiveness to turn it into a score. One of them didn’t count (he either stepped out of bounds or there was a penalty, I don’t recall). The next week he looked like an All-Pro against the Patriots, catching 4 balls for 117 yards and a touchdown. He’s good, and with minor shifts in how that offense is working, he might catch fire. I remember the Week 2 game against the Bucs. Cooks was 5 yards behind the defense, open for a long touchdown. Drew Brees (playing with the damaged shoulder) didn’t have the arm strength to get it there. A play here, a play there, and we would all be viewing Cooks differently. Trouble I have is that Brees will never have the arm strength to take advantage of Cooks’ vertical ability. That’s gone. If you’re ranking the quarterbacks 1 thru 32 for arm strength, Peyton Manning is definitely last, but I don’t know if there’s anyone else that’s as physically limited as Brees. Maybe Teddy Bridgewater. But Brees is down there. So the next couple of times Cooks is open for 70-yard touchdowns, I imagine Brees will miss some of those as well. There’s also the issue of Cooks’ height. He’s 5-foot-10. That’s not necessarily a big deal. Antonio Brown is the same size and Steve Smith is even shorter. But those guys seem to do a better job adjusting and positioning on longer balls. Cooks at times seems to have Tavon Austin disease – he’s a small target. Too much of his game is based on him catching the ball and trying to make people miss, which is damn hard to do. Austin has never really gotten over the hump. I remember the game-ending play at Carolina. Cooks was kind of open in the end zone, but the ball was a little underthrown and was picked off by Josh Norman. But with Cooks being a small guy, it seems like if it had been thrown a little further, it would have gone over their heads and out of the back of the end zone. It was a really small window to work with. At that size, he’s got to get more open than larger receivers (or figure out a way to play bigger than his size – like Brown and Smith do). However you slice it, right now Cooks looks like a talented player, but not a guy that they’re building the entire offense around. After six games, he hasn’t really been any better than Willie Snead. Cooks has caught 3 more passes, but Snead has more receiving yards, including in each of the last three games. One guy is a former first-round pick and one guy is an undrafted free agent who spent last year on the practice squad, but there’s not much difference between them on the field.
Question 3
Thanks for all the help. I have Freeman in our keeper league and keep trying to pair him up with a top-10 WR to get someone like AP, Charles (before injury) or Bell as an upgrade. My team is stacked at all positions and we only keep 4 so my thinking was to try and get a 2-1 deal. Now I am starting to wonder just how good Freeman can be this year and in the future. Where would you place him on a redraft league or dynasty ranking?
jim bo ()
If I were pairing Freeman with a top-10 receiver, I would need to get an absolute superstar in return. Would have to be Bell or Gurley, and even then I’m not sure if I would do it (those backs are upgrades, but you would be giving up a top-10 receiver). I just went through my running backs folder and updated the dynasty rankings. It was difficult. On my first pass through, I saw only four guys where I had the initial impression, “that guy must be in the top 10”. Peterson, Lynch, Forte – these are older backs. Other guys have various problems. It’s not pretty. With Freeman, you have that tremendous upside of how they’re using him as a pass catcher. I think he’s averaging close to 50 receiving yards per game. But for dynasty purposes, that must be balanced against the big-picture reality that Tevin Coleman might be more talented. Coleman is faster. So as you look at 2016 and 2017, which back do you think is starting there?
| DYNASTY RUNNING BACKS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Player | Age |
| 1. | PIT | LeVeon Bell | 23 |
| 2. | STL | Todd Gurley | 21 |
| 3. | ATL | Devonta Freeman | 23 |
| 4. | SF | Carlos Hyde | 24 |
| 5. | NYJ | Chris Ivory | 27 |
| 6. | MIN | Adrian Peterson | 30 |
| 7. | WAS | Matt Jones | 22 |
| 8. | NO | Mark Ingram | 25 |
| 9. | CIN | Giovani Bernard | 23 |
| 10. | PHI | DeMarco Murray | 27 |
| 11. | MIA | Lamar Miller | 24 |
| 12. | NE | Dion Lewis | 25 |
| 13. | JAC | T.J. Yeldon | 22 |
| 14. | GB | Eddie Lacy | 25 |
| 15. | OAK | Latavius Murray | 25 |
| 16. | CHI | Matt Forte | 29 |
| 17. | SEA | Marshawn Lynch | 29 |
| 18. | HOU | Arian Foster | 29 |
| 19. | CIN | Jeremy Hill | 23 |
| 20. | BUF | LeSean McCoy | 27 |
| 21. | ATL | Tevin Coleman | 22 |
| 22. | BAL | Justin Forsett | 30 |
| 23. | TB | Doug Martin | 26 |
| 24. | KC | Jamaal Charles | 28 |
| 25. | PHI | Ryan Mathews | 28 |
| 26. | SD | Melvin Gordon | 22 |
| 27. | CAR | Jonathan Stewart | 28 |
| 28. | BUF | Karlos Williams | 22 |
| 29. | DEN | Ronnie Hillman | 24 |
| 30. | DAL | Christine Michael | 24 |
Question 4
Eddie Lacy has not lived up to expectations this year. Can you address his value going forward for the rest of the season?
Alan Brodecki (Katy, TX)
He hasn’t been God-awful terrible. He carried 19 times for 85 yards against the Bears, and he went 18 carries for 90 yards at San Francisco (and that’s a good run defense). I think we can set aside the Week 2-3 games because of his ankle injury. He got stuffed pretty good by the Rams in Week 5, picking up only 27 yards on 13 carries, and he wasn’t effective against San Diego, when they gave James Starks most of the playing time ahead of him. So while we can all agree that he’s been a little off his game, it’s not certain that he can’t right the ship and be a top-10 back in the second half of the season. My concern is that it looks like he might be a little out of shape – like he might be 10-15 pounds too heavy. And with Starks outplaying him, why would the Packers give Lacy anything more than about half of the playing time in the foreseeable future?
Question 5
There has been a lot of talk about RB change in Dallas. Is Michael going to get the bulk of the carries in this coming weeks game vs. the Giants? I have Michaels. Should I wait and see how they are going to split the carries? I also have Randle.
BRUCE SADLER (Lakeland, FL)
I have no idea how much Michaels will play. I have seen the same reports as you. Supposedly Michaels has been getting a bunch of work with the first-unit offense over the bye week. You would prefer to use a more proven option, of course, but how many of us have the luxury of extra backs to plug in, especially with four teams on byes. My guess is they’ll plug Michael into the No. 1 role and see what he can do. I would start Michael over Randle. But keep in mind that he isn’t much of a factor at all as a pass catcher. This was one of the reasons he could never get past Robert Turbin in Seattle. So if you’re league awards points for receiving production, my guess is there’s somebody else out there who probably makes more sense for Week 7.
Question 6
Denver's D has been a monster so far. 2 years ago Kansas City was on a similar roll and you wrote an article about whether they would keep it up coming out of their bye week. They didn't. Now here we are 2 years later, seemingly, in the same spot with Denver and the fact that their schedule projects to be one of the hardest going forward. Do you feel the same way about Denver's D and if so what other D's should we be targeting? Or should we stay the course?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
It’s an interesting point you raise. With Kansas City, that defense was also scoring lots of touchdowns on returns of turnovers and kick returns, and it was going to be hard to keep that going. But it’s also hard to maintain a great pass rush. Scheduling is part of it. I just pulled out the numbers for the last four years. The 2012 seems to be missing, but whatever. In the last three years that I have, I see 23 teams averaged at least 3 sacks in the first half of the season. Only five of those teams continued on and also averaged 3 sacks in the second half of the season. Of the 23, about half (11) had at least 20 sacks in their final eight games.
| DO HOT SACK TEAMS COOL OFF? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1st H | 2nd H |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 36 | 11 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 28 | 20 |
| 2014 | Buffalo | 28 | 26 |
| 2013 | Baltimore | 27 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kansas City | 27 | 19 |
| 2013 | Buffalo | 27 | 30 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 26 | 14 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 26 | 18 |
| 2011 | Baltimore | 26 | 22 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 26 | 23 |
| 2014 | Miami | 25 | 14 |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 25 | 16 |
| 2013 | NY Jets | 25 | 16 |
| 2011 | Washington | 25 | 16 |
| 2013 | Miami | 25 | 17 |
| 2014 | Jacksonville | 25 | 20 |
| 2013 | St. Louis | 25 | 28 |
| 2014 | Denver | 24 | 17 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 24 | 17 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 24 | 20 |
| 2014 | NY Jets | 24 | 21 |
| 2013 | New England | 24 | 24 |
| 2011 | Minnesota | 24 | 26 |
Question 7
Hi Ian - long-time fan of yours, in fact you are officially invited for Thanksgiving dinner! Looking at a trade - I would trade Chris Johnson for Randall Cobb. I have Doug Martin, Latavius Murray, and Frank Gore as RBs. Cobb does not seem right to date but hoping for rebound to his former self. I have Antonio Brown (ouch), Demaryius Thomas, Pierre Garcon, Willie Snead, Stevie Johnson. Your thoughts?
Deo Garlock (Raleigh, NC)
Sold. I don’t have much interest in Johnson. He’s playing fine, but they’ve been using their other Johnson, David, in goal-line situations, and I think they’ll start working in Andre Ellington more. I would much rather invest in the possibility – more of a likelihood, actually – that the Packers will be able to get Cobb re-established as a top-10 receiver. Green Bay hosts Chicago on Thanksgiving. If we wind up celebrating Thanksgiving together, I want Cobb on your team, because I think he would have a big game on that day.
Question 8
I wanted to get your opinion on a trade proposal that I'm considering. I would be giving up Ingram and Sanders for D. Murray and J. Landry. My other RBs are Forsett and Blount and WRs are Julio Jones and Decker. This would free up some cap space to swap Matt Ryan for Ben and solve a QB problem in week 10 where Ryan and Rivers are both on a bye. So essentially it would be Ryan, Ingram, and Sanders for Ben, D. Murray, and Landry. What is your opinion on that trade proposal? Half-point PPR.
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
It makes some sense. When I look at my raw projection numbers, the two sides are pretty comparable. Might concern is Landry. When I re-watched the Miami-Tennessee game, it seems like his role has changed from what it was earlier in the year. In their early games, he was a target monster, catching a ton of short balls on crossing routes. He looked like a player who was going to catch 100 passes. But against the Titans, he was targeted only 4 times, catching 3 for 42 yards. All but one of those routes was of the more traditional variety. Looks like going forward, he’s going to be more of a standard receiver, catching a lot fewer passes (but having them go for more yards, on average). That’s just one game, and I might be wrong, but I believe I’d rather stick with Sanders.
Question 9
Hey there! So im in a 16 team PPR league. I have at RB Woodhead, Foster, Charles(went down) Micheal. At WR i have Dez, Aj, Mike Evans, Stephon Diggs. At TE i have gates, and QB tyrod taylor. Since charles went down, i caught my first loss. I was thinking of packaging Diggs and Woodhead, should i go after a marshawn? a McCoy? or do i just stay put hoping that Christine Micheal comes thru? Woodhead has been very good, but is lynch’s upside worth going after? or is the offensive line to horrible.
luca trunzo ()
Lynch is a great back, but you’re in a PPR league. That means that when Woodhead catches 5 passes for 50 yards, that’s worth 10 points. That’s worth as much as Lynch running for 100 yards (with no receptions). The Seahawks aren’t using Lynch much in the passing game. They are plugging in Fred Jackson in obvious passing situations. So I don’t see any big need to start giving away players to bring in a big name who might not even be an upgrade.
Question 10
I’m in a 13-team league, with RBs J.Hill, CJ Anderson, R.Hillman and Gurley. My dilemma is Wk 7, where 3 of my 4 RBs will be on bye. I need to pick up a RB but they are scarce. Only available on this weeks top 60 redrafter are, in order, are Sankey, Powell, McCluster, Riddick, and K.Robinson. Ugh. Newcomer to the mix may be Ahmad Bradshaw. Could he be my saving grace? I know he could be boom or bust, so what are your thoughts on Bradshaw? Also, I wish I didn't have to drop anyone, because whatever player I do drop will be scooped up immediately, I'm sure. What's your opinion on who to drop?
JIM BRUNO (Roebling, NJ)
I think you can cut Anderson. He’s just a lesser handcuff at this point, and I imagine you’ll be able to get him back after the Week 7 games. The best play, I think, is to pick up one of these crappy running backs pick up the handful of points they give you. I don’t think Ahmad Bradshaw is an upgrade over those guys. He’s just another change-of-pace back. The only selling point for him is that he’s also a viable handcuff. That is, if this is the week that Frank Gore’s 32-year-old body breaks down, you’ll have stumbled onto a starting running back. But if you’re just playing for the most yards in Week 7, I would go with Theo Riddick. He’s averaging over 5 catches per game, and they started using him more as a runner last week.
Question 11
I have a bye week question. This week is especially rough for my team. I have both Crosby and Green Bay DEF on bye (my sole kicker and defense). Do I bench both and pick up subpar K and DEF to hopefully compete this week? I don't want to give up any bench spots with Roethlisberger, Cobb, Sanders, C. Johnson, LaFell, Watson and Diggs on bench currently. Is it worth "throwing in the towel" this week to maintain future optionality in coming weeks? Or who would I drop? Thank you.
Michael Massad (Dallas, TX)
I don’t know which C.Johnson we’re talking about. If it’s Charles Johnson, he’s gone. If it’s Chris Johnson, you might risk dumping him. If it’s Calvin Johnson, he’s staying. I wouldn’t be opposed to floating Watson onto waivers for a week. You might be able to get him back, and there are other, comparable tight ends out there. Diggs looked very promising last week, but he’s another guy I would think about maybe floating onto the waiver wire. If he goes off and has another big game this week, of course, you’ll be kicking yourself. But when the Vikings have been able to get Adrian Peterson going this year, they’ve hardly passed the ball at all – Bridgewater finished with under 160 passing yards against both San Diego and Detroit. If they get Peterson going again on Sunday, I would expect Diggs will finish with modest numbers and possibly be there for you to re-acquire next week. My preference would be to field a full team. In general, when you pick up a kicker or defense, you’re often getting one that’s better than over half of the starters in your league. I have Mason Crosby in most of my leagues, for example, and have been able to replace him with Greg Zuerlein, and I think Legatron will be a top-5 kicker this week.
Question 12
Hello, I'm in a 12-team, standard scoring league with 7 bench spots. I currently have both Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell and am nervous that Robert Turbin may come in and take the job. He is owned in less than 1% of leagues, but due to my record I won't be able to pick him up on waivers if he has a nice outing this week. I could pick him up by dropping one of Ty Montgomery, Davante Adams, or Darren Sproles. Do you suggest I do so, or am I over thinking things?
Zach Tenner ()
They were using Turbin more than those other backs at the end of the Denver game. He makes sense for your team, given that you’ve already got Johnson and Crowell. Gives you the opportunity to corner the market on that lousy Cleveland running game. Of the guys you mention, Adams is the one who might step up and be something special. No way do you even consider letting him go. I think Montgomery (who just injured an ankle) is the guy who goes, or you could toss Sproles.
Question 13
Who are the active players with the most Pick Six TDs?
peter chen (Stanford, CA)
Josh Norman has 2 TDs on returns already this year. If the question is who’ll have the most in the next two years, he’d be the first guy I would pick. But he’s not up on the all-time list yet. There are currently 15 players with at least 4 TDs on those plays. Charles Woodson, Charles Tillman and Aqib Talib are the three with more than 5.
| MOST PICK-SIX PLAYS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Yr | Int | TD |
| Charles Woodson | 18 | 64 | 11 |
| Charles Tillman | 13 | 36 | 8 |
| Aqib Talib | 8 | 30 | 8 |
| DeAngelo Hall | 12 | 43 | 5 |
| Johnathan Joseph | 10 | 25 | 5 |
| D. Rodgers-Cromartie | 8 | 21 | 5 |
| Karlos Dansby | 12 | 18 | 5 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| Captain Munnerlyn | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| Rashean Mathis | 13 | 32 | 4 |
| Antrel Rolle | 11 | 26 | 4 |
| Josh Wilson | 9 | 15 | 4 |
| William Gay | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| Julius Peppers | 14 | 11 | 4 |
| Darius Butler | 7 | 11 | 4 |
Question 14
I noticed that in one of the front page articles, somebody asked the "experts" who they think the biggest bust is thus far in the season. That got me thinking. I often notice that a lot of subscribers use the "Mailbag" to berate Ian for recommending a player who later turns out to be a perceived bust. But human nature being what it is, people notice the busts more than they notice the gems that Ian and the Fantasy Index consistently deliver each year. I was wondering if you ever did some kind of periodic "batting average" where you compared the number of players you were really high on in the draft, and during the season (in the re-drafter), and seeing how many gems vs how many busts you called. Similarly, tabulate guys that you were really sour on, but who turned out to be studs. My sense is that we all might learn something from such an analysis. For example, even the guys you thought would rock (like Lorenzo Taliaferro) might be done for this year but could very well be a gem next season. I remember a few years ago, you were abnormally high on Golden Tate in the pre-season back when he was a Seahawk. He had a rough start to the season, and guys like me were really POed that we'd followed bad advice. He ended up having a decent (but not great) season that year, but almost every season thereafter, he's been really productive. So often I find that you're right about a guy in the aggregate, but the timing is sometimes off.
Andrew Napoli (Springfield, VA)
Thanks for the letter. I appreciate the kind words. I haven’t spent too much time trying to grade and score picks because I don’t think it would be that useful. I don’t think readers want to listen to a guy try to pat himself on the back. And I’d rather spend that time researching and creating content that will help guys run their teams. We got a few of those kind of charts in the mailbag this week – an updated dynasty list for running backs, and a look at how teams with good pass rushes tend to do in the second half of the season. I think readers are more interested in that kind of stuff.
Question 15
Sitting at 2-4 in my 12 team standard league. Not my year but trying to change things up. My RBs are Lacy, Starks, Ingram, Latavius Murray, Riddick. We start 2 plus flex. I have Eli and Tyrod at QB and Julius Thomas and Reed at TE. Would you give up Eli, Murray and Thomas for Dalton and Gronkowski? I'd really take a hit at RB but the redrafter has Gronkowski 50 points higher than Thomas. Dalton is 20 or so above Eli. Is it worth the hit at RB for the gains at QB and TE? I'm playing this guy this week and am a little concerned seeing Murray at #7 for the week. Thoughts?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
Sounds good to me. Why not shake it up a little bit? Dalton is here to stay, I believe.
Question 16
I've been streaming defenses this year (with mediocre success, at best). Would you recommend settling down on one, now that we are about halfway through the fantasy season? Or would you continue to stream?? Regardless, is there a couple defenses that you'd recommend during fantasy playoffs? (Weeks 14-16) I appreciate your hard work and look forward to hearing the podcast with you and Mark. Keep up the great work, guys!!
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
I suggest you keep streaming defenses. I’ve been going that route in one league and have been able to hit on a Pick Six in three of the six games. I’m doing far better in that league than another one, where I’ve been using Buffalo all year. I would continue plunking away with playing the matchups, then start looking at matchups for Weeks 14-16, if applicable, about two-three weeks before those games.

