ATLANTA (at SF):
Since averaging 32 points during a 5-0 start, Atlanta has scored only 21, 10 and 20 points while losing two of three to opponents (New Orleans, Tennessee and Tampa Bay) who aren't particularly good on defense. San Francisco has played solid defense at home, holding its opponents to 3, 17, 20 and 20 points. Atlanta may win, but it's at best an average matchup for the Falcons offense. That being said, San Francisco has lost six of seven and is a banged-up group, so it might not be quite as competitive as it was when the season had a little more promise. ... Nobody has been able to slow down Devonta Freeman. He's put up at least 130 total yards in six straight games, averaging 111 rushing and 48 receiving in that span, with 9 TDs. He hasn't scored in two straight but was very close to getting in the end zone in each of those games. San Francisco hasn't been particularly stout against the run (23rd), though it's played better at home. In those four games, two opponents (Vikings and Ravens) were held ...
This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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under 80 yards. Eddie Lacy (90 yards) and Marshawn Lynch (122), however, had big games, and Freeman is running as well as those guys. The 49ers might have some success, but they're unlikely to really shut him down. And he's such a big part of the passing game that no one should seriously consider sitting him down regardless. San Francisco has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns while Atlanta has scored 11, so there's a pretty good chance Freeman gets in the end zone this week. Tevin Coleman is fully healthy but will probably get no more than a handful of carries; just 12 in the last four games. Only if Atlanta is able to take a big lead will Coleman be a factor. ... Matt Ryan has been a disappointment, particularly in terms of touchdowns. He's thrown only 11 in eight games, which projects out to 22 over a full season -- that would be his lowest total since 2009. But Ryan comes off his best statistical game of the season (397 yards and 2 TDs); he completed 82 percent of his passes. Ryan also turned it over twice and had an end-zone interception erased by a penalty, so it wasn't a perfect outing, but it was more prolific than he's been. This is also a defense that's very soft against the pass (28th). Four different quarterbacks have been over 300 yards against San Francisco; Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson might also have been had their teams not won easily with defense and the ground game. Just 14 sacks in eight games for San Francisco, and an ordinary 7 interceptions. Ryan will get some time to throw and have receivers open, plus there's always Freeman as an outlet. The 49ers have also allowed 13 TDs in their last seven games; at least 1 in each of those and multiple scores four times. A good chance of 2 TDs, then, for Ryan. He threw for 348 yards and 2 TDs when these teams met in San Francisco two years ago, a 34-24 loss. ... Leonard Hankerson (hamstring) didn't practice at all last week before sitting out against Tampa Bay. Take that as a good sign he'll be down again, and with Atlanta having its bye in Week 10, holding Hankerson out make sense. Julio Jones and Roddy White will be the top two wideouts, although there's a wide chasm between the two. Jones had cooled off after a fast start, but Tampa Bay had no answer for him last week (12 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown) and San Francisco shouldn't, either. Wide receivers have caught 9 TDs against this defense, multiple scores in three different games. Franchise wideouts, like Jones, have lit up this secondary.
| Franchise WRs against San Francisco | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 195 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 134 | 2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 121 | 1 |
| Steve Smith Sr. | 7 | 137 | 1 |
White is a lesser option; he's on the field plenty but just not getting as many looks as Jones or any more than the third wideout (Hankerson in most games, Justin Hardy in the most recent one). Hardy had a nice little catch against Tampa Bay, one of two receptions on four targets, though he might have to vie with Nick Williams (dealing with a hamstring injury) for those snaps. Jones will get most of the looks, Freeman will catch some short balls near the line of scrimmage, there probably won't be a significant second wideout. White had a big game in the loss two years ago (12 for 141 with a TD), but he's not that player anymore. ... Jacob Tamme has become a big part of the offense. Tamme caught 10 balls against Tampa Bay, the second time in four weeks he's caught 8-plus passes. San Francisco has allowed 3 TDs to tight ends, nearly a fourth when Jared Cook took a long reception down near the goal line last week. Particularly if Hankerson sits (which is our expectation), Tamme should be in line for another good game. ... Matt Bryant isn't having a great year, averaging under 6 points a game since a double-digit opener. San Francisco is allowing under 7 kicking points per game itself, tending to give up extra points nearly twice as often as field goals (20-11). ... The Falcons Defense has only 10 sacks in eight games, which is pitiful. But matchup counts for a lot, and here it draws Blaine Gabbert, who in 28 games as a starter for his career has taken 74 sacks (2-3 per game), thrown 24 interceptions and fumbled 21 times. Pocket presence isn't his bag, and while we think he's improved, he was sacked 4 times while attempting 28 passes in the preseason. A good spot for Atlanta to maybe get 3 sacks and a couple of turnovers.
