NEW ORLEANS (vs Detroit):
The Saints are out of it, but they played hard in Tampa Bay last week. Now they’re home, where their offense has been very reliable. Since a 19-point showing in Week 2 (when Drew Brees injured his shoulder), they’ve scored 26, 31, 52, 28 and 38 in their last five at the Superdome. The Lions have some defensive talent, but they’re allowing 26 points per game. New Orleans should again push to score in the high 20s or 30s. ... Tim Hightower turned back the clock with a 28-carry, 85-yard performance in the win over Tampa Bay. That’s just 3.0 yards per carry, but whatever; fine yardage and he punched in a touchdown on the road against a top-10 run defense. No committee with C.J. Spiller, who got 3 carries and 3 short receptions. The Lions are just 21st against the run. They’d held four straight opponents under 70 yards entering last week’s game in St. Louis, but Todd Gurley steamrolled them for 140, and the teams they shut down (Green Bay twice, Oakland and Philadelphia) had some internal turmoil factoring into their struggles. Hightower is what he is, but the matchup isn’t particularly daunting, and his workload seems ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... secure. He’s got fresh legs, evidently, after sitting out the last three seasons. No reason to think he can’t go for another 60-70 yards on the ground, and there’s a really good chance he’ll punch in another touchdown. Detroit has allowed 18 rushing scores, tops in the league. Spiller will play on some third downs, but maybe not many; the team doesn’t seem to trust him in pass protection. New Orleans went nowhere on the ground in a 24-23 loss at Detroit last season, but that Ndamukong Suh led group was one of the league’s best run defenses. This isn’t. ... However fresh Hightower’s legs are, Drew Brees and the passing game will lead the way. Regardless of opponent, Brees has been lighting things up in the Superdome.
| Brees at Superdome, last five | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Com | Att | Yds | TD |
| Dallas | 33 | 41 | 359 | 2 |
| Atlanta | 30 | 29 | 312 | 1 |
| N.Y. Giants | 39 | 50 | 505 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 28 | 39 | 387 | 3 |
| Carolina | 24 | 42 | 282 | 3 |
A couple of soft pass defenses in there, but a couple that are better than Detroit (11th). That ranking appears suspect; Detroit was 20th until Case Keenum threw for just 124 in a win last week. The Lions have allowed five different passers over 300 yards, and eight have thrown multiple touchdowns. Brees threw for 342 yards and 2 TDs in the road loss last season. ... All of the Saints receivers are healthy, and that’s a positive for the offense, but a negative for the individuals. Brandin Cooks, for example, had two of his three best yardage games and nearly half (3) of his 7 TDs in games that Willie Snead missed. Snead came back healthy against the Bucs (7 for 122) and Cooks caught just 3 balls for 29 yards. Not that the two can’t co-exist -- both went over 100 yards in one game and scored 2 TDs in another -- but Snead definitely eats into Cooks’ production. Cooks’ limited role might have been connected to him missing some practice time last week. Marques Colston caught 6 passes last week. Just 36 yards, but 2 of his receptions went for short touchdowns. Brandon Coleman caught 3 balls. Colston and Kenny Stills both went over 100 yards against the Lions a year ago. Just 10 of the 20 TD passes allowed by this defense have gone to wide receivers; 15 of the 25 the Saints have thrown have gone to the position. If Brees throws 2 TDs, probably just 1 will go to a wideout. ... It’s an excellent matchup for Benjamin Watson. The Lions have allowed 10 TDs to tight ends, so as many as they’ve allowed to wide receivers, while New Orleans has thrown 8 TDs to the position, for a combined 18 TDs in 26 games. For a while the Saints were throwing to several different tight ends around the end zone, but Watson has been the only one to score the last four games (touchdowns in back-to-back weeks). ... We’re cool on Kai Forbath. New Orleans is averaging just 6 kicking points per game. In seven games with the team, he’s only attempted 6 field goals. ... The Saints Defense has a below-average 25 sacks and just 6 interceptions, but gets a boost from facing Matthew Stafford: 35 sacks and 13 interceptions. Realistically, though, this defense lacks the personnel to hit those averages. About 2 sacks and an interception is the most you can hope for, and steer well clear of the Saints if you’re penalized for points allowed.
