OAKLAND (vs. San Diego):
This is a favorable matchup for the Raiders. San Diego ranks just 19th in both yards and points allowed. Oakland won the Week 7 meeting in San Diego by a 37-29 score, and it wasn’t nearly that close; it led 37-6 after three periods. The game in Oakland was high scoring a year ago, with the Raiders losing a 31-28 shootout. ... With San Diego very soft against the run (24th), we have some interest in Latavius Murray. He rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown at San Diego. The only concern is that Murray has had five other favorable matchups this year, and only against the very worst of those did he deliver big numbers.
| Murray versus below-average defenses | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Rank | Run | Rec | TD |
| Cleveland | 31st | 139 | 10 | 1 |
| Chicago | 26th | 49 | 12 | 0 |
| San Diego | 24th | 85 | 1 | 1 |
| Detroit | 19th | 28 | 0 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 18th | 59 | 23 | 0 |
| Green Bay | 22nd | 78 | 2 | 0 |
In only two of the other five games did he reach 60 rushing yards; he scored in just two of them as well. Murray isn’t a big part of the passing game, which hurts him in most scoring systems. He averages just 12 yards per game. But this is a game Oakland should score plenty of points and probably win, putting him in the . . .
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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. . . mix to be a top-15 running back. He should get virtually all the carries; Marcel Reece, who caught 3 passes, was the only other back to touch the ball last week. Reece, incidentally, has more than 3 receptions in just one game all season. ... The matchup isn’t as good for Derek Carr, with San Diego 8th defending the pass. But some of that is a function of schedule and how poor this defense is defending the run. San Diego has a lesser pass rush (27 sacks) and just 8 interceptions. Carr, certainly, was fine in the earlier meeting, throwing for 289 yards and 3 TDs. There’s also the reality that Oakland is simply a lot more effective throwing the ball (13th) than running it (25th). Carr threw for 282 yards and 4 TDs in 31-28 loss against San Diego a year ago. Considering the way both offenses and defenses have played for most of the season, that encounter seems closer to what this one will be like than the game in San Diego (a 13-6 Chargers win where Carr threw for only 172 yards). ... It’s been a three-man mix at wideout in a lot of recent games, but this could be more of a two-player affair. Seth Roberts left the last game with an abdominal injury; he’d averaged 60 yards and scored 3 TDs in the previous four contests. Andre Holmes could then step in as the No. 3, but he’d been quiet in most games prior to Roberts’ emergence and shouldn’t command as many looks. The other issue is that San Diego’s secondary might not force Carr to look away from Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree very often. Both players scored in the earlier meeting; Cooper caught 5 passes for 133 yards, Crabtree 6 for 63. San Diego has allowed only 9 touchdowns to wide receivers, but we can’t see a compelling reason anyone should shy away from either player. Crabtree needs to average 76 yards in the final two games for a 1,000-yard season, which is probably important to him, and the team might make an extra effort to help him get there. All of Carr’s 4 touchdowns against this defense a year ago went to wide receivers, including a pair to Holmes (although he was a starter at the time). ... The Chargers have allowed nearly as many touchdowns to tight ends (8) as wide receivers (9). Oakland is throwing to two of them, making it difficult to recommend either one too highly. Both Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford average 19 yards per game; both have been better in the last six (30 for Rivera, 28 for Walford). Walford is the future at the position and Oakland is out of the playoff mix, so maybe he’ll be more of a featured receiver the last two games. But it’s just as likely things will continue as they have, and then Walford will emerge as the clear No. 1 in training camp next season. Walford caught a touchdown in the earlier meeting. ... Sebastian Janikowski averages 6.4 kicking points, and has been at 5 or fewer in four of seven. A season-high 13 in the earlier meeting, however. San Diego allows nearly 8 kicking points per game. ... The Raiders Defense is fairly average in both sacks (36) and interceptions (12). Philip Rivers, remarkably enough, has identical numbers, which takes some of the mystery out of what the computer might spit out. Oakland sacked him only once but got 2 interceptions in the earlier meeting, but Rivers threw the ball 58 times in that one after falling way behind. About 2-3 sacks and an interception looks like the correct forecast.
