There's been a recent groundswell of support for the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 tomorrow. Two factors at play here. One is the sentimentality of Peyton Manning riding off into the sunset, which many would like to see. The other is the annual pattern where there's an early favorite, and then the next two weeks are spent playing devil's advocate, making the case for the underdog.
Have I fallen into one of those traps in picking the Broncos, as I did in Thursday's Ask the Experts column? It's possible. I'm getting old and have always been a softie, so maybe I just want to believe that Denver will come out on top. Sometimes our heart pulls us one way, and then we use our brains to focus on reasons to support that argument, while ignoring the ones that work against it.
But enough navel-gazing. My argument for the Broncos goes as follows. They have the better all-around defense. Better pass rush, and better personnel in the secondary (with Carolina having lost a couple of their best defensive backs to injury along the way). Great as Cam Newton is, he's a young guy who has had the luxury of not facing many elite pass rushes along the way. When Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are coming after him, maybe the running won't be as effective and the passing won't come as easily. We know he doesn't have the difference-making receiving corps.
Newton is great. No question. But it's not like he hasn't had bad games, or been harassed into low-scoring performances or absorbed some sacks or turnovers. Things have gone really well for him of late, and against very good Seattle and Arizona defenses, but both of those were laughers where Carolina got up early with big runs or defensive scores and everything was going well. Let's see if Denver can hold Newton in check early, not give the Panthers an easy touchdown or two, and make him feel uncomfortable back there.
Denver's offense, clearly, is limited. Peyton Manning can't throw as well as he used to, he'll try some throws that used to be completed and now look dangerously risky to be intercepted (including against the Patriots), and Gary Kubiak keeps giving the ball to Ronnie Hillman for some unearthly reason. Hillman isn't a great runner, he's not better than C.J. Anderson in pass protection, and he would have been the goat in the AFC Championship Game for not hustling after that lateral that set up New England's first touchdown.
But Manning is capable of completing some short, chain-moving throws, and Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are capable of coming up with some clutch catches. Get Owen Daniels or C.J. Anderson open near the goal line and you get a touchdown or two, your defense plays well, and you keep things close and low-scoring. And then your defense makes the bigger plays at the end.
Denver 20, Carolina 17. That's what I'm calling. I would take Denver and the points, definitely bet the under. For this to happen, Denver needs to score first, just like they did against New England. If instead the Panthers score early, this projection goes out the window, and it's a long day for the Broncos, and anyone hoping for a good, competitive Super Bowl. If the Panthers get up early, get ready for another game like Seattle-Denver two years ago.