It’s Stan Kroenke’s fault. He moved the Rams back to LA, and that helped to throw a fly into the ointment of our Strength of Schedule calculations. I noticed this when I was compiling that Week 1-7 chart (showing Washington with the league’s easiest early-season schedule). I’ve been working with flawed data, I’m sorry to say, and all of the Strength of Schedule charts I’ve posted over the last few months are corrupted.
It’s embarrassing, but I screwed up. I’m not 100 percent positive, but I think that somewhere way back when, I merged a couple of non-compatible files. One with the St. Louis Rams and one with the Los Angeles Rams. Because as I was trying to figure what went wrong, the Arizona thru Kansas City teams all looked fine, as did the teams post San Diego. It was the Los Angeles through Philadelphia teams that were all one spot off.
That messes up everything, of course. Every team plays some games against those 10 teams, and all of those Strength of Schedule figures are shot to hell.
I apologize. It’s humbling.
At this point, best to get the correct figures in your hands. Below are the four primary strength of schedule charts, and along with a few comments on each.
Starting with the basic chart (using wins and losses). It shows the Bengals, Titans and Packers projecting to play the league’s easiest schedules. The Saints, Falcons, Seahawks and Rams on paper should play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-17) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T |
Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | .449 |
Tennessee | 116 | 140 | .453 |
Green Bay | 117 | 139 | .457 |
Chicago | 118 | 138 | .461 |
NY Giants | 118 | 138 | .461 |
Pittsburgh | 118 | 122 | .461 |
Detroit | 119 | 137 | .465 |
Dallas | 120 | 136 | .469 |
Philadelphia | 120 | 136 | .469 |
Jacksonville | 121 | 135 | .473 |
Indianapolis | 122 | 134 | .477 |
Cleveland | 123 | 133 | .480 |
Washington | 123 | 133 | .480 |
Baltimore | 124 | 132 | .484 |
Houston | 124 | 132 | .484 |
Minnesota | 125 | 131 | .488 |
Miami | 127 | 129 | .496 |
Denver | 129 | 127 | .504 |
San Diego | 130 | 126 | .508 |
Carolina | 131 | 125 | .512 |
Buffalo | 133 | 123 | .520 |
Kansas City | 133 | 123 | .520 |
Oakland | 133 | 123 | .520 |
New England | 134 | 122 | .523 |
Arizona | 135 | 121 | .527 |
San Francisco | 135 | 105 | .527 |
NY Jets | 136 | 120 | .531 |
Tampa Bay | 139 | 117 | .543 |
Los Angeles | 140 | 116 | .547 |
Seattle | 140 | 116 | .547 |
Atlanta | 142 | 114 | .555 |
New Orleans | 143 | 113 | .559 |
Some prefer to look not as wins and losses but defenses – points scored.
Based on how defenses played last year, you would expect the Cowboys will see the most soft defenses. Four other teams are a half point back, tying at 23.7 points per game, on average –Minnesota, Washington, Chicago, Detroit.
The 49ers project to play by far the league’s hardest schedule (in terms of defenses), coming in at 20.3 points per game on average – over a point below everyone else. The Patriots and Steelers tie for next-to-last.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
Dallas | 24.2 |
Minnesota | 23.7 |
Washington | 23.7 |
Chicago | 23.7 |
Detroit | 23.7 |
Tennessee | 23.6 |
Cincinnati | 23.6 |
Green Bay | 23.6 |
NY Giants | 23.5 |
Houston | 23.3 |
San Diego | 23.1 |
Baltimore | 23.1 |
Denver | 23.0 |
Kansas City | 23.0 |
Philadelphia | 22.9 |
Jacksonville | 22.9 |
Carolina | 22.8 |
Atlanta | 22.8 |
Indianapolis | 22.7 |
Cleveland | 22.6 |
Los Angeles | 22.4 |
Tampa Bay | 22.3 |
Oakland | 22.3 |
Seattle | 22.2 |
Miami | 22.1 |
Buffalo | 22.0 |
New Orleans | 21.8 |
Arizona | 21.8 |
NY Jets | 21.7 |
Pittsburgh | 21.4 |
New England | 21.4 |
San Francisco | 20.3 |
Getting more specific, here are the rushing projections for the upcoming season. If defenses play just the way they did last year, Chicago, Minnesota and Washington will see the easiest run schedules. That’s using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, and 6 points for each rushing touchdown. Figures are of the per-game variety.
The 49ers, Patriots and Steelers project to see the hardest run defenses.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Chicago | 116 | .82 | 16.5 |
Minnesota | 114 | .79 | 16.1 |
Washington | 116 | .73 | 16.0 |
Green Bay | 113 | .78 | 16.0 |
Tennessee | 113 | .79 | 16.0 |
Detroit | 118 | .70 | 15.9 |
Dallas | 117 | .71 | 15.9 |
NY Giants | 117 | .68 | 15.8 |
Philadelphia | 112 | .76 | 15.8 |
Tampa Bay | 107 | .79 | 15.5 |
Carolina | 108 | .77 | 15.4 |
Houston | 109 | .74 | 15.4 |
Jacksonville | 110 | .71 | 15.3 |
Denver | 107 | .75 | 15.2 |
Cincinnati | 112 | .67 | 15.2 |
Los Angeles | 104 | .77 | 15.1 |
Seattle | 109 | .70 | 15.1 |
Atlanta | 107 | .72 | 15.1 |
Arizona | 108 | .70 | 15.0 |
San Diego | 106 | .73 | 15.0 |
New Orleans | 102 | .79 | 14.9 |
Oakland | 104 | .74 | 14.8 |
Baltimore | 109 | .64 | 14.8 |
Indianapolis | 105 | .68 | 14.6 |
NY Jets | 107 | .64 | 14.6 |
Kansas City | 102 | .71 | 14.5 |
Cleveland | 106 | .64 | 14.5 |
Miami | 106 | .64 | 14.4 |
Buffalo | 104 | .62 | 14.1 |
Pittsburgh | 104 | .60 | 14.0 |
New England | 103 | .61 | 13.9 |
San Francisco | 96 | .63 | 13.4 |
Finally, I offer the passing projections. The Cowboys, Ravens and Bengals project to see the softest pass defenses. (This is built off 1 point for every 10 passing yards, plus 6 points for each TD pass.)
The 49ers, Saints and Steelers project to see the hardest pass defenses. That’s notable, with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger having averaged more passing yards per game than any other quarterbacks over the last two years.
With six games against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams, San Francisco took a schedule beating all along – last in points, rushing and passing.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Dallas | 269 | 1.89 | 38.2 |
Baltimore | 271 | 1.75 | 37.6 |
Cincinnati | 265 | 1.82 | 37.5 |
NY Giants | 264 | 1.79 | 37.1 |
Detroit | 261 | 1.77 | 36.7 |
Cleveland | 265 | 1.68 | 36.6 |
Washington | 263 | 1.71 | 36.6 |
Chicago | 261 | 1.68 | 36.2 |
Minnesota | 257 | 1.71 | 36.0 |
Kansas City | 260 | 1.66 | 36.0 |
Philadelphia | 261 | 1.63 | 35.8 |
Green Bay | 256 | 1.70 | 35.8 |
San Diego | 256 | 1.70 | 35.8 |
Denver | 260 | 1.63 | 35.8 |
NY Jets | 260 | 1.62 | 35.8 |
Atlanta | 259 | 1.64 | 35.8 |
Seattle | 263 | 1.58 | 35.7 |
Miami | 261 | 1.61 | 35.7 |
Buffalo | 262 | 1.58 | 35.7 |
Carolina | 258 | 1.64 | 35.7 |
Tennessee | 256 | 1.68 | 35.6 |
Houston | 257 | 1.64 | 35.6 |
Los Angeles | 257 | 1.57 | 35.2 |
Arizona | 259 | 1.55 | 35.2 |
Indianapolis | 253 | 1.64 | 35.2 |
New England | 255 | 1.59 | 35.0 |
Jacksonville | 249 | 1.67 | 34.9 |
Tampa Bay | 255 | 1.53 | 34.7 |
Oakland | 250 | 1.57 | 34.4 |
Pittsburgh | 247 | 1.62 | 34.4 |
New Orleans | 254 | 1.45 | 34.1 |
San Francisco | 236 | 1.46 | 32.3 |
—Ian Allan