Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What to make of Michael Rawls in Seattle? The NFL's new and improved (or not) injury report. Spilling the beans on the new third-down back in New Orleans. And the NFL's best deep ball passers.
Question 1
With conflicting reports of how Seattle will use Rawls and Michael in Week 1, is it a better strategy to use one of the two backs as a flex this week and play them both?
Jason Kurvers (EAU CLAIRE, WI)
I don’t think there are any conflicting reports. Michael is starting. Rawls will also play. I don’t think anybody is reasonably expecting Rawls to get half as many touches as Michael. If I’m drafting today, I would select Rawls first. But if I were putting together a Week 1 lineup, it would be Michael.
Question 2
I think Rodgers is the best long-ball QB, Give the next five best long ball QBs. Does Osweiler make the grade? Thanks for all you do.
CRAIG LEEDY (Sacramento, CA)
Rodgers and his receivers have that nice feel for knowing to go deep when the penalty flags have been thrown. Osweiler hit on a handful of long passes in the preseason; had you not mentioned him, I think I would have brought him up. But I will go Tyrod Taylor No. 1. He hits on a lot of the long balls and seems to throw those better than the other guys. I saw Robert Griffin III hit on completions over 40 yards in each of his first three preseason games. He’s got numerous other faults, but strictly for throwing deep balls, I think he’s about as good as anyone. You asked for five, and I’ll give that fifth spot to Joe Flacco.
Question 3
Does the new injury report going effect how you evaluate players? Is for better or for worse?
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
Ask me after the first report comes out this afternoon and I will know for sure, but I don’t think it’s going to change anything at all. More notable than the “Questionable” and “Probable” tags is listing of how many each player did in practice. That provides an indication of who’s playing. I will try out the new injury report this afternoon, tweaking the rankings some for Week 1 (which will be posted at the end of the day).
Question 4
I saw that you downgraded Ingram recently, partly on the news that Spiller is finally healthy and ready to take on the pass-catching role they hired him for. But I'm surprised that wasn't accompanied by a boost to Spiller. Just a year ago you saw him as a potential PPR star taking on that Sproles role in the offense, but he's still a $0 player on the custom auction board (well behind guys like Drake, who seem speculative at best). Just curious why you still don't see him as a useful player in that offense?
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
I believe Spiller will rotate in and see some playing time with the first-unit offense, but I don’t think he can be another Sproles. I don’t think he has the same feel for the passing game. In his final two years in Buffalo, he averaged 5.6 and 6.6 yards per catch. In his first year in New Orleans, he had that 80-yard touchdown catch against Dallas but otherwise averaged 4.8 yards per catch. In the preseason, he caught 7 passes for 25 yards – 3.6 yards per catch. He ain’t no Sproles. Not a player who should be drafted in your league, I think, and so I’ve got him flagged at $0.
Question 5
So I just completed a main event draft in the FFPC. Had the seventh pick and used your updated 9.4 rankings using the FFPC custom generated cheat sheet at the site as my main guide. I have played FFPC a lot over the years and definitely pay attention to the 1.5 per catch for tight ends and the 2 flex positions. So starting with the 7th pick, I ended up with Gronk, Reed and Olsen for my first three picks. In all my previous years, I have never had this happen and it just kind of fell that way. I know your cheat sheet using this scoring has them all as top ten guys, but did I go overboard here? I still ended up with receivers like Decker, DeSean Jackson and Hurns and got backs like Hyde, Yeldon, Ware, Blount, Terrance West. Hindsight 20/20, but when I do another of these drafts later this week, if I have a feeling that Reed or Olsen will fall to me somewhere in the second round, should I pull the trigger on a David Johnson/Miller/Gurley if I am saddled with another mid round to later round pick and the top receivers and gronk are gone? As a side note, the flow of the draft definitely seemed to change after I took the third tight end. Owners seemed to notice it and then tight ends really appeared to start going faster than usual. This seemed to help me a bit in the middle rounds.
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
That’s the system with the double flex, so all of those guys can play. When you look at the projected numbers, it should score out. In the programming setup for that league, the computer has been pretty much told to just forget about positions and treat RB-WR-TE as one position. In the third round, my one concern would have been that if I select Olsen, I’ll be locked out of potentially cashing in on a great tight end value later. Specifically, Virgil Green would have been a player I might have expected to take. If you go Gronk-Reed-Olsen to open, there will be no selecting Green in the seventh or eighth round. But I expect you should win games with what you have.
Question 6
Can you explain the constant love for Isaiah Crowell? He's consistently been ranked between 18-22 all preseason. And is in that range for Week 1. I've been in drafts where 40-48 RBs have been taken and Crowell hasn't even been drafted. I couldn't take him due to byes. And I thought his stock might be heading down (like Ingram). I’d love to hear why you're the sole rider on the Crowell bandwagon. You've been high on odd players in the past so I respect your reasoning. Thoughts?
Bryan Morris (Pine City, NY)
Hue Jackson knows how to put together running games. All four of his offenses have ranked higher in rushing than passing (that’s in Oakland and Cincinnati). I imagine he’ll have some of the same success in Cleveland, helped along by a passing game that’s good enough to keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage. Cleveland has a decent enough offensive line. Think about how good Jeremy Hill was under Jackson two years ago. Crowell is a faster, better version of Hill.
Question 7
Just completed our 16-team TD-only-league draft. We carry 3 RBs on our rosters and start 2. Spencer Ware slipped through without being selected, which according to your rankings (which I've subscribed to for 25+ years now) would qualify as a mini-travesty. My #3 RB right now is Terrence West, who I'm kind of intrigued about - feel he's definitely better than Forsett. But if I go by your rankings, it's a no brainer to drop West and pick up Ware. Is this really that easy of a decision, should I stop what I'm doing and go get Ware and not look back?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
I think so. Kansas City scores rushing touchdowns – 17, 18 and 19 in the last three seasons. I think Ware will be their primarily goal-line option, giving him a really good chance of scoring double-digit touchdowns. Ware might seem like a lesser guy (if Kansas City were to release him, how many teams would even be interested in adding him to their roster?). But I think Ware will be very good in the TD-only format.
Question 8
I am in a 24-team keeper league with a heavy TD emphasis. The QB gets bonus points only for 300 yard passing. There are no bench players. I have Dak Prescott however Tony Romo will be back at some point. Right now I can pick up Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Would you stick with Dak for a few weeks or grab one of these other QBs. If so, who do you like best?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
With no bench players, there is some ability to stream quarterbacks. So I don’t think you need to rush out and grab a full-time starter. Fitzpatrick is the best of this group, but his first four are against the Bengals, then at Buffalo and Kansas City before Seattle in Week 4. So I’m thinking you just stick with Prescott for now.
Question 9
I see in your latest Dynasty Rankings that you are extremely higher on WR Will Fuller (#13) over WR Corey Coleman (#33). I drafted Coleman in our Keeper League in Round 1 and Fuller went in Round 3 (it's not just a rookie draft, we start with 6 keepers of a 15-man roster and we have a 4-Man Taxi Squad for rookies, where both are now). Should I try to work a straight up trade for Fuller? The other guy will probably feel like he is getting a steal. Or should I wait and see how Coleman does in first few weeks without Gordon (I have him too)? Even, if I want Fuller, I then might be able to get Fuller and something more. Thanks for you advice.
Dennis Thomas (Royal Oaks, CA)
Coleman might come around. Eventually. Supposedly he was going good things early in training camp. But Fuller looked awfully good in the preseason, consistently getting behind defenses for long catches. If we could back up the clock and get back to your draft night, I would most definitely select Fuller before Coleman. If you’re going to swing a trade, probably sooner rather than later. If Fuller catches a 60-yard touchdown against the Bears, while Coleman does essentially nothing in Philadelphia, that might reduce the willingness of your trading partner.
Question 10
In a ppr 12 team league that gives 6 points for a td thrown what do you think bout drafting a QB in the first round?
Karl Scheel (Ingleside, IL)
If you look at the wide receiver you might select in the first round, and combine his production with the quarterbacks who’ll be taken later – specifically Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins – I think the number will be significantly larger than what you would get by selecting a quarterback in the first round and a wide receiver in that Rivers/Cousins round.
Question 11
I have been a FFI subscriber for the last 10+ years and have won 6 championships and just as many lower money wins. I'm entering the second season of a full dynasty league and am curious about which players I should be keen to keep over others. I have Roddy White, Doctson, Smallwood, McKinnon, and Powell. I'm mainly curious if you think White will play again. Not sure how long I should hold onto him vs. upgrading another position. Secondly, curious if Doctson, Smallwood, or McKinnon will develop into studs.
Maxwell Cameron (Windsor, ON)
White will be 35 in November, and he was pretty terrible last year. Don’t you think that if any team thought he had anything left in the tank, they would have signed him by now? (Or at least brought him in for a look?). It’s over. With dynasty, I think it’s best to focus on talent. Washington selected Doctson with a first-round pick and everything seems to be in place – the quarterback, the coaching staff and the offense. Their two starting receivers are both older guys in contract years. So makes a lot of sense, I think, to park Doctson off on the side, figuring he might be something in 2017. In Minnesota, Adrian Peterson is 31, so it also makes some sense to find a spot for McKinnon if you can.
Question 12
Hi Ian, Auction League $200 budget: Keep Le'Veon Bell at $11 or Lamar Miller at $29? Bell seems like the obvious choice, but I am very high on Lamar Miller.
Marco Tavares (Tewksbury, MA)
I don’t have the values in front of me, but Bell looks remarkably cheap at 5.5% of the cap. Miller looks like a good deal as well, but if you said your goal was to have both Bell and Miller on your team, I would think you could do it more cheaply by protecting Bell.
Question 13
How do you feel about starting two WRs from the same team on any given week? For example, I have T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief and I can foresee having to make this decision at some point in the season
JOHNATHAN PIERSON (Lewisburg, WV)
Sounds good to me. They’re both talented players, and this is an appealing matchup of two passing teams with poor defenses.
Question 14
In looking at your PPR rankings, both cheat sheet and custom, I seem to see a trend. It looks like you have WRs valued much lower than in the past few years. Am I correct on this and if so is it because you see more depth at the position than in the last few years? Just can't remember seeing so many RB's ranked so high for PPR.
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
It’s not intentional. In PPR, it is certainly nice to have a solid corps of pass catchers who’ll go for 90-plus receptions. Those guys are golden in that format. So it must be more of a supply-demand dynamic. There is more receiving quality about 30-40 receivers down, relative to the running backs in the same range. If the quality of those receivers down there is higher, it means you’re getting less bang for your buck out of the top-level wide receivers.
Question 15
A question on "preseason reads". Andrew Luck (3rd/4th round value) Drew Brees (4th/5th round value) and Eli Manning (6th, 7th round value) are three QBs I've had my eye on from the off-season through camp. But then I watch their starting offensive lines and it feels like they may never complete a pass. Am I right to be scared by what I see in these preseason games? Am I right to knock them down in my rankings enough so they are all below Bortles, Winston and Rivers, on par with Carr and Palmer, and just above Stafford and Cutler.
Vin Kmetz ()
Just about Cutler? Wow. Never thought I’d hear somebody make that suggestion. All three of those quarterbacks have slipped some in my rankings, but I consider them all to still be in the mix to potentially wind up on my roster. They can turn things around.
Question 16
Ian, great work as always. Still my most trusted source of fantasy analysis. My question is where do you view Derrick Henry from a dynasty perspective now? The magazine had him slotted at 30, before we got to see him in a taste of NFL action. Clearly he has gone up significantly. How would you value him at this time when you have the option to keep 4 players indefinitely?
Robert Heater (Gaithersburg, MD)
I updated those dynasty rankings in all of the Thursday updates in August. Henry closed at 14th among running backs. Nice looking player.
Question 17
After your Cheat Sheet guides my draft, your Weekly makes "who to start" almost a no-brainer. This leaves add-drops and the waiver wire as the key to in-season strategery (thanks W.). Your Redrafter is invaluable for season remainder player values. However, as "streaming" is vital now for far more than just Defenses, it's become increasingly difficult to win each week’s obvious targets. Everyone knows the hot prospects to pick up each week. Thus making their acquisition often difficult or impossible. Therefore in recent years I've tried to make my streaming acquisitions a week in advance, before they become in high demand. I know you are publishing a lot of data each week, and you do occasionally mention some advance notice sleeper plays, but I could use more. Ideally, a tentative two weeks out Weekly or at least some more heads up in this regard. Please also note, should more players begin streaming a week in advance, I will be requesting a three weeks out Weekly!
ALBERT CHAPMAN (Naples, FL)
That can be a good way to go. And it looks like there will be some turnover- and sack-plagued offense to work on. Anybody playing the Browns, 49ers or Eagles, I’m interested.
Question 18
I have a couple of questions and disagreements with your cheat sheet, starting with David Johnson at #2 overall. With C.J. and Ellington healthy, his carries wont be like last year when he's all they had left. Throw in their schedule and he's got at least 9 tough defenses against the run. There's no way, even in a PPR league, he's worth the value you give him. I don't see him in the top 10 overall, or top 5 RB's in standard scoring leagues. I'd take Lamar Miller before him. Even with the unknowns in Houston, he's the best they have they will run more and he's a three down back Why do you have DJ so high? Drew Brees as the third best QB is way too high. Cooks, Snead (who I see as a sleeper), and Fleener are his top three targets and I don't see any depth. The Saints O line is having problems as well. His arm was never the best and it seemed like he was loosing strength last year. I have him sixth or seventh and would take Big Ben before him. The only thing I can think of is he'll be throwing a lot, cause they'll be playing from behind, but I don't trust his line to keep him upright. Why is he third to you? Osweiler may not be as accurate as you'd hoped right now, but he throws very good deep balls. That benefits one guy, Will Fuller. I see him looking like DeSean Jackson did with Chip Kelly in Philly. Hopkins will benefit from fewer double teams and is, in my opinion, ahead of Dez and Watkins and an elite NFL WR.
LANDON COLGAN (Spring, TX)
We’re marking them down. We’ll check back in a few months. You don’t think Johnson is a top-5 running back or Brees is a top-5 quarterback. Your Houston argument is harder to follow. You say that Osweiler can only throw deep balls, which will benefit Will Fuller. But two sentences later you’re saying that because of what Fuller will be doing on those deep balls, it will benefit Hopkins (and that Hopkins is underrated). We’ll see.
Question 19
I play in a 14 team, non-ppr league. I can keep two of the following three players: Todd Gurley (Give up 4th round pick), ODB Jr (Give up 9th round pick) and Jordy Nelson (12th round pick). Which two should I keep?
Michael Dougherty ()
Beckham for sure. Without getting the numbers out and really studying it, I will go with the safe really good value of Gurley in the fourth round, rather than the steal of getting Nelson in the 12th (if he can stay healthy).
Question 20
While using the Index for the past 20 years, I always tweaked the rating around a little bit based on other knowledge that I had. This year I decided to give it a test and really follow your rankings during my draft. Can you tell me where I might need some help this season? PPR league. 6 points for all touchdowns. No flex player. 8 starters. 5 bench. QB: Stafford, Rivers, RB: David Johnson, M.Gordon, Crowell, Ivory, WR: A.Robinson, B.Marshall, Marvin Jones, TE: Olsen, K: Crosby, DEF: Minnesota, Jacksonville
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
I don’t know how many are in the league, but looks like a solid team to me.
