What do we make of the Atlanta Falcons this week? They’ve got the league’s No. 1 offense right now – first in yards, and first in scoring. But this week they’re playing against the Seahawks, who’ve allowed the fewest points in the league three years in a row. And the game is in Seattle.
Obviously you move the Falcons down some from their usual perch. But they’re playing well enough that you don’t move them all the way down to the bottom 5. They might even finish with above-average numbers.
Look, for example, at how other offenses have played at Century Link.
Since the start of 2013, the Seahawks have played 26 games at home. Their defense has been tough in those games, allowing an average of 16 touchdowns, 88 rushing yards and 206 passing yards. (That’s gross passing yards, setting aside the 15 yards, on average, lost on sacks). Only 40 run-pass touchdowns allowed, which averages out to about one and a half per game.
Pretty remarkable defense.
But this isn’t a usual, lesser offense. The Falcons are ripping things up right now. They just scored 2 TDs (and 23 points overall) against a similarly awesome Denver defense.
So let’s look in more detail at how teams have played at Seattle.
In those last 26 games, five of those teams (almost 20 percent) have scored 3-plus touchdowns. Nothing wrong with that; you score 3 TDs per week and that’s 48 for the season, which puts you up in the top 5.
Seven of the 26 (over a quarter) have run for over 130 yards. The Falcons are running the ball really well right now, and they might fit into that group. The Seahawks have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns in those 26 games, which is good but not as stingy as many other defenses around the league.
It’s against the pass where Seattle really excels. In those 26 games, only 4 teams have passed for 270-plus yards. And just 24 TD passes allowed in those games, which is remarkably good.
On the chart below, the teams scoring 3-plus touchdowns are in bold. The teams hitting either 130 rushing yards or 270 passing yards have a black dot.
There have been some success stories, and three of them came last year.
As well as the Falcons are playing, I would think they have a chance to put up reasonable numbers on Sunday. Not great numbers like in a shutout against the Bucs or Saints, but above-average numbers. Certainly they’re scoring 2 TDs, and I think it’s more likely that they’ll get up to 3.
As well as they’ve run the ball, I think top-10 rushing numbers (for the team) are still in play. With the passing offense, probably more of a middle-of-the-pack effort.
| PLAYING AT SEATTLE SINCE 2013 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Run | TDR | Pass | TDP |
| 2013 | San Francisco | 3 | 100 | 0 | 127 | 0 |
| 2013 | Jacksonville | 17 | 51 | 2 | 235 | 0 |
| 2013 | Tennessee | 13 | 66 | 0 | 171 | 0 |
| 2013 | • Tampa Bay | 24 | 205 | 0 | 170 | 3 |
| 2013 | • Minnesota | 20 | 132 | 0 | 207 | 2 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 7 | 44 | 0 | 147 | 1 |
| 2013 | • Arizona | 17 | 139 | 0 | 178 | 1 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 16 | 80 | 1 | 189 | 1 |
| 2014 | • Denver | 20 | 36 | 0 | 303 | 2 |
| 2014 | • Dallas | 30 | 162 | 1 | 250 | 2 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 24 | 37 | 0 | 194 | 2 |
| 2014 | • NY Giants | 17 | 54 | 1 | 283 | 1 |
| 2014 | Arizona | 3 | 64 | 0 | 149 | 0 |
| 2014 | • San Francisco | 7 | 140 | 1 | 141 | 0 |
| 2014 | St. Louis | 6 | 42 | 0 | 243 | 0 |
| 2013 | St. Louis | 9 | 13 | 0 | 157 | 1 |
| 2015 | Chicago | 0 | 98 | 0 | 63 | 0 |
| 2015 | Detroit | 10 | 53 | 0 | 203 | 0 |
| 2015 | • Carolina | 27 | 135 | 3 | 269 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Arizona | 39 | 117 | 1 | 363 | 3 |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 13 | 59 | 0 | 264 | 1 |
| 2015 | • Pittsburgh | 30 | 58 | 2 | 490 | 1 |
| 2015 | Cleveland | 13 | 94 | 0 | 161 | 1 |
| 2015 | St. Louis | 23 | 104 | 1 | 103 | 1 |
| 2016 | Miami | 10 | 64 | 1 | 186 | 0 |
| 2016 | • San Francisco | 18 | 135 | 2 | 119 | 0 |
—Ian Allan