TAMPA BAY (at Kansas City)
The Bucs have been on the upswing recently, with 3-4 TDs in four straight games, but lots of bad defenses in there (with San Francisco and Atlanta leading the way). Kansas City, on the other hand, ranks 7th in scoring defense. The only offenses that have scored more than 2 TDs against this defense have been piloted by possible Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks -- Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger. They've allowed only 9 TDs in their six other games. They've allowed only 2 TDs in recent road games against Cam Newton and Andrew Luck. They gave up only 10 points at Oakland and only 14 against Jacksonville. So this looks like a lesser situation for the Bucs -- about 17 points. ... Doug Martin is back, but he's not back. He looked pretty . . .
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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. . . pedestrian against Chicago, running for 33 yards on 16 carries. Didn't get any yards that weren't blocked for him -- didn't have the burst and aggressiveness that was very apparent at the start of the 2015, when everyone knew he was playing for a contract. Looks ordinary right now, and the Bucs spelled him heavily on Sunday with Peyton Barber and Mike James (truth be told, those guys look just as good as Martin right now). Now maybe Martin steps it up a notch this week, now that he's had a week to re-find his feet. But that's speculative. So we have little interest in recommending Martin, even though they're playing a defense that's allowed more rushing yards than all but five teams. And while Kansas City gives up rushing yards, something about how they play defense around the goal line tends to deter rushing touchdowns. Thus far they've allowed 16 passing but only 4 rushing touchdown. The previous two years, they allowed 47 TD passes but just 11 runs. That's only 15 TD runs in their last 41 games. If you're holding Martin, it should be with the hope he's got his giddyup back when the Bucs play the Saints in Weeks 14 and 16. Don't use him now. ... Jameis Winston faces an opponent that tends to allow touchdowns on passes. That's a good thing. In those last 41 games, Kansas City has allowed 63 TD passes -- 1.54 per game. But this isn't a soft defense. Eight of the 16 TDs it has allowed this year have been thrown by Brees and Roethlisberger. Luck and Bortles (garbage time) both threw 2 TDs. But nobody else reached 2 TDs, and that includes Newton, Carr and Rivers. This is a tough defense. If we were starting the season over today, it probably would finish in the top 8-10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. It held Carr and Luck under 230 yards. Kansas City's pass rush is starting to come on. That could be a major factor, with Tampa Bay having all kinds of issues with its offensive line. Winston has posted big numbers recently, with multiple touchdowns in four straight games. But he should be headed for a big downward turn here. We're putting him down for 235 yards and 1-2 TDs. ... With it being a lesser situation for the passing game, we're slotting Mike Evans lower than usual. But with a player of Evans' ilk, it's tough to ever drop him too far. He's a remarkably talented guy -- up there with the likes of A.J. Green, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham -- and it's hard for any defense to really put the clamps on those kind of receivers. While Kansas City is having a good year, it has played against eight other top-level receivers <_>- guys who at times in the last year have been considered one of the top 10 receivers in the league. Only two of those eight had what you would call unsuccessful days against this defense. (The Jets, with terrible quarterbacking, couldn't get the ball to Brandon Marshall, and T.Y. Hilton strained his hamstring early in the first quarter of his game.) So nobody should be thinking too seriously about benching Evans, who is averaging 90 yards, with 8 TDs in nine games.
| Elite WRs vs. Kansas City | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yards | TD |
| Hopkins | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Marshall | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| A.Brown | 4 | 64 | 2 |
| Cooper | 10 | 129 | 0 |
| Cooks | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Hilton | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Robinson | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Benjamin | 7 | 84 | 0 |
Adam Humphries has caught only one touchdown all year, but he'll catch some underneath balls. He's been coming on recently, with over 45 yards in three straight games. But he's definitely a pea-shooter class receiver, with six straight games under 60 yards. Cecil Shorts III starts but is mostly a decoy. Since Vincent Jackson was placed on injured reserve, Shorts has caught 3 passes for 58 yards in four games, with no touchdowns. ... We're slotting Cameron Brate lower than usual. We just don't think the overall passing production will be there. But in general, he looks like a top-10 tight end right now. He's got good hands, and Winston will look for him -- Brate has scored three weeks in a row. Since they elevated him into the starting lineup, he's averaged 47 yards, with 5 TDs in seven games. Kansas City has been solid against tight ends, allowing only one touchdown all year, and they've faced many with some pass-catching ability -- Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Coby Fleener. ... Roberto Aguayo has been a disaster, hitting only 9 of 14 field goals and missing 2 extra points. Even with perfect accuracy, he'll probably be a below-average scorer this week. Kansas City's defense has been remarkably sound, allowing only 46 kicking points (3rd-fewest in the league). ... The Buccaneers Defense looks like a bottom-10 group. The pass rush projects to be average; blended with Kansas City's offense, you're looking at 43 sacks in 18 games -- 2.4 per game. But Alex Smith is the league's most careful quarterback; since showing up at Arrowhead, he's thrown only 23 interceptions in 53 games. The Bucs have only 6 interceptions this year. They also don't have a dangerous kick returner.