SAN FRANCISCO (vs. NYJ)
San Francisco is on an 11-game losing streak, but it looks oddly decent. Prior to imploding in the snow at Chicago, the team had shown some life in almost every game. The offense scored at least 2 TDs in all but one of its other 11 games. Now it's at home, and it's playing an opponent that's every bit a lousy as they are. With the long losing streak, the 49ers should be the more motivated of the two teams. The Jets really rolled over on Monday night; they're not playing hard. The 49ers are very much in the mix to maybe score 3 TDs this week. We're grading them as a middle-of-the-pack offense. ... Colin Kaepernick completed only 1 of 5 passes at Chicago before being benched, but he's starting, and he's very much in play as a possible top-10 quarterback. In his previous four starts, he averaged 278 passing and 56 rushing yards, with multiple touchdowns in all of those games. In most fantasy formats, those are top-5 quarterbacking numbers. He's running a lot; that's key. He'll almost certainly run for 40-plus yards. And New York's defense looks pretty stinky right now. It's in the bottom 10 in ...
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... pass defense, both yards and touchdowns. The one worry is that maybe the 49ers go to more of a run-oriented approach this week. That's happened at times, and it can result in sub-200 yards passing. So we'll slot Kaepernick conservatively. But he's very much a candidate for 220-plus passing yards, 40 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns -- should outperform statistically many quarterbacks who are actually better players than he is. ... Jeremy Kerley used to play for the Jets. No doubt he'd love to play well against his former team. But almost all of Kerley's good games came when Blaine Gabbert was at quarterback. It will be Kaepernick on Sunday, so no interest in Kerley, who's been under 25 yards in all but one of his last seven games. ... We're putting Carlos Hyde higher than usual on our board. The Jets in the not-too-distant past ranked No. 1 in run defense, with all those great big bodies up front. But nobody is playing hard; it's a defense that's just going through the motions. The Jets have allowed 127, 125, 91 and 139 rushing yards in their last four games. Hyde might go for 100-plus against this group. For the year he's averaging 69 rushing and 13 receiving yards, with 7 TDs in 10 games. Shaun Draughn will come in on some third downs and had gone over 40 receiving yards two weeks in a row prior to the disaster in Chicago. ... If you're looking for a tight end on the waiver wire, Vance McDonald is one possibility. In this offense, and with Kaepernick's playing style, McDonald is a big part of the passing game. He averaged 60 yards in his last four games before Chicago, with 2 TDs. We're thinking the 49ers will win this game and post better-than-usual numbers, making him a viable player at this position. ... Torrey Smith is a hit-or-miss wide receiver (with a lot more misses than hits). But he's got the speed to hit on the long touchdowns. He caught 3 TDs from 70-plus last year, and he had a long score against the Bills. He's been under 30 yards five games in a row, but this is a game where he's far more likely than usual to pull one of those long bombs out of his hat. Darrelle Revis has seemingly fallen off a cliff; he's getting ripped up most weeks. A great week to spin the Torrey Smith roulette wheel. ... Quinton Patton has been the team's best wide receiver with Kaepernick at quarterback, averaging 36 yards in those seven games. But he doesn't have Smith's deep speed and hasn't caught a touchdown all year. ... Phil Dawson surprisingly grades out as a middle-of-the-pack player at his position. Twelve teams, believe or not, have scored fewer kicking points, and the Jets are below-average opposition. Dawson doesn't come with the weather concerns of some other players at this position, and the Jets are making a cross-country trip after playing on Monday night -- they seemed to be little more than mailing it in against the Colts. ... The 49ers Defense gets to face a lesser opponent. New York has thrown 3 more interceptions than any other team, and Bryce Petty might not be an upgrade -- he's thrown 3 in less than two games. Sacks don't look as compelling; Petty has taken only 2 in 61 regular-season plays. San Francisco's defense is short a couple of players. Only Cleveland has fewer sacks. And the 49ers have gone all year without scoring a touchdown on a defensive or special teams play.