NEW ENGLAND (at Miami)
New England has lost its last three games in Miami -- 24-20, 33-20, 20-10 -- and the Week 17 loss last year probably cost them a Super Bowl berth (giving home-field advantage to Denver). But it's hard to see the Patriots making the same mistake again. They have the better team, and they're very interested in securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC; there will be no resting of players. The Dolphins are 9-1 in their last 10, but their defense is ordinary. Only San Francisco and Cleveland, believe or not, have allowed more yards. In the last nine weeks, only two offenses have failed to score at least 3 TDs against the Dolphins: the Jets (twice) and the Rams. The Patriots, meanwhile, have scored at least 3 TDs in eight of their last 11 games. Chances are they'll score 3-plus touchdowns in this game. ... The running game looks outstanding. Miami has Ndamukong Suh, but it surprisingly ranks just 30th against the run. Opponents have averaged 142 rushing yards against them, with 11 touchdowns, and that's an issue the Dolphins have never been able to fix. They've allowed 175-plus rushing yards in three of their last five, and two of those were at Hard Rock Stadium. New England has a good offensive line and likes running the ball; they're sitting 8th in rushing, averaging 117 yards per game. So look for ...
This report is taken from today's Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... plenty of carries for LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. They've both carried the ball 16-plus times in back-to-back games. Blount is the weapon of choice in goal-line situations; he's scored all but one of the team's 18 rushing touchdowns. They'll also mix in James White in passing situations. He's averaged 8 rushing and 37 receiving yards in his last 10 games, with 5 TDs. Neither Blount nor Lewis is used much as receivers. ... If you buy into the theory the Patriots will have success running the ball, it makes Tom Brady less compelling than usual. If you're running, that means you're not passing. That's supported by the numbers. The Patriots have run for over 110 yards in five of Brady's games this year, and they've averaged 236 passing yards in this games, with 10 TDs (2 per week). Brady has been far more productive when they're spreading the field and passing the heck out of it. They've averaged 351 passing yards in Brady's other six games, with 15 touchdown passes (2.5 per week). We not eager to talk anyone out of using Brady, but we're putting a relatively mild (for him) grade out this week -- about 265 yards and 2 TDs.
| Brady with good run game | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. | Pct | Yards | TD | Int |
| at Pitt. | 73% | 222 | 2 | 0 |
| at S.F. | 60% | 280 | 4 | 0 |
| L.A. | 72% | 269 | 1 | 0 |
| at Den. | 50% | 188 | 0 | 0 |
| Jets | 63% | 214 | 3 | 0 |
With the relatively modest passing game, we're a little cooler than usual on the pass catchers. With this team, there's also the issue of there being four pretty comparable receiving threats, with each capable of coming up big or not really being all that involved. Looking at just the past six games (after Rob Gronkowski got hurt), Julian Edelman has averaged 83 yards, with one touchdown. Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan have averaged 51-52 yards (2 touchdowns in five games for Hogan; 4 for Mitchell -- but just one in his last four games). Martellus Bennett has averaged only 27 yards in those games, with 2 TDs, but he's been playing hurt. Bennett had three 100-yard games earlier in the year. Those are the kind of numbers we're talking about for these guys (the Patriots have averaged a modest 275 passing yards in those games, so those numbers haven't been inflated too much by the spread-the-field type stuff we don't expect to see this week). Miami has allowed 7 TD passes to tight ends in its last seven games, which is a good indicator for Bennett. ... Michael Floyd should get the on field and run some vertical routes down the sidelines. He appeared for 24 percent of their plays against the Jets, with 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 targets. But not a viable fantasy option at this point. ... Stephen Gostkowski should be a top-10 scorer at his position. The Patriots need to win this game to secure home-field advantage, and Miami is only average defensively. He's scored only 8, 8 and 4 points in his last three games at this stadium (all losses) but more likely to go for 8-plus this time. ... The Patriots Defense leads the league in scoring defense but isn't actually that good -- they haven't played many offenses with much firepower. For fantasy purposes, New England looks pretty average in all the key categories -- sacks, interceptions, fumbles. Matt Moore hasn't been a disaster so far, with just 2 interceptions and 1 sack in his first two games.