Defenses often win championships, but there are no elite defenses left in the NFL playoffs. No elite fantasy defenses, either, which make it a week to allot the smallest portion of one's budget, or a lower draft pick, to select one.
During the season, the Patriots were 8th in yards allowed (how the NFL ranks defenses) and 1st in points allowed. But they were a pretty mediocre fantasy group, ranking just 18th in a scoring system that awards 1 point for sacks, 2 points for turnovers and 6 points for all defensive and special teams touchdowns. The other three remaining teams weren't as good in NFL terms, and fared only slightly better in that fantasy scoring system. Atlanta finished 10th (thanks to defensive touchdowns), Pittsburgh 14th and Green Bay 16th.
Moreover, you've probably noticed that the final four teams all feature elite quarterbacks; guys who tend to be better than average at avoiding sacks and (especially) turnovers. So we've got four fantasy defenses ranked between 10th and 18th during the season matched up with four great, mistake-resistant quarterbacks. But this is what we have to work with.
SACKS
Sacks tend to be among the more predictable fantasy commodities. Good pass rushes usually get their numbers, while quarterbacks who take sacks usually can be counted on to absorb close to their averages. So Green Bay, which ranked 6th during the season (40), matched up with one of the eight most-sacked quarterbacks during the regular season in Matt Ryan (37), looks best in this area. The 2nd-best defense for sacks is also playing in this game. Atlanta ranked 4th among the remaining teams in sacks during the season (34), but Aaron Rodgers was sacked 35 times, about twice as often as Ben Roethlisberger (17 in 14 games) and Tom Brady (15 in 12). Pittsburgh had slightly more sacks (38) than New England (34) during the season, so we'll rank them Green Bay-Atlanta-Pittsburgh-New England for sacks.
TAKEAWAYS
Where the Patriots gain a decisive edge is in takeaways. Defensive numbers for the four teams are similar (all had between 22-25 takeaways in 16 games), but Roethlisberger threw 13 interceptions in 14 games, and he's added 3 more in two playoff games. Compare that to Ryan and Rodgers (just 7 interceptions each) and Brady (just 2 in 12 games), and it's easy to make New England the likeliest team to come away with an interception. We'll put Green Bay 2nd, since they had the most interceptions during the season (17) of any of the four teams (Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New England were all at 12-13).
When you factor in fumble recoveries, though, New England's edge goes away somewhat. Pittsburgh lost only 3 fumbles all year, fewest of the four teams (Atlanta lost 4, Green Bay and New England 9 each). Green Bay had only 8 fumble recoveries, compared to 10 each for the other three teams, which make the team takeaway numbers more similar -- less than half a takeaway separating the four teams, straight off the numbers. But there's a little more chance involved with fumbles -- interceptions are more predictable. So for takeaways we're ranking them New England, Green Bay, Atlanta and Pittsburgh, in that order.
TOUCHDOWNS
These four teams combined for a total of 6 defensive touchdowns during the season -- and Atlanta had 5 of them. Pittsburgh had 1 (a fumble return against Cleveland), while New England and Green Bay didn't have any. The Patriots had 3 safeties, Pittsburgh 1 and the Falcons and Packers none. It makes Atlanta seem likeliest to come away with a defensive score, except they're facing a quarterback who's thrown only one Pick Six in his entire career. Green Bay and Atlanta each allowed 2 defensive touchdowns this year; Pittsburgh allowed 1, New England didn't allow any. We'll rank Atlanta 1st in defensive touchdowns, but more likely they do so on a fumble (they had 2 such TDs this year) than interception (3 of those, but Rodgers doesn't serve up that kind of opportunity).
Only Green Bay allowed a special teams score during the season, a game-opening kickoff return by the Colts. None of the four teams scored on a kickoff or punt return last year. But New England was slowly bringing Dion Lewis back from a knee injury, and they put him back there a couple of times down the stretch -- and then against Houston last week, with him weaving through the coverage team for a 98-yard score. Pittsburgh will use Antonio Brown on punts, and he had a return touchdown in each of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons. Those are the key return guys playing this weekend; Green Bay and Atlanta don't have anyone special there. Eric Weems caught the eye only for a gaffe that stuck the Falcons inside their own 1-yard line last week.
RANKINGS
Using the projected numbers for each defense (sacks, takeaways, defensive and special teams touchdowns), we arrive at the following rankings.
| D/ST RANKINGS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Fum | Int | Take | Sack | TD D | TD K | TD T | FF Pts |
| 1 | New England | .45 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 1.7 | .15 | .07 | .22 | 5.85 |
| 2 | Green Bay | .45 | .80 | 1.25 | 2.4 | .12 | .03 | .15 | 5.81 |
| 3 | Atlanta | .65 | .35 | 1.00 | 2.2 | .14 | .04 | .18 | 5.22 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | .60 | .40 | 1.00 | 1.7 | .10 | .05 | .15 | 4.56 |
If you're factoring in points allowed, New England would get a boost there -- we and the oddsmakers expect Pittsburgh to score the least of the four teams playing this weekend. If that's the case (if you're penalized for defenses surrendering lots of points) makes more sense to place a premium on securing the Patriots.
--Andy Richardson