I understand that Dak Prescott may be considered somewhat unproven. He’s a former fourth-round pick, and he’s only done it for one year – and with a really good cast around him. But he sure got off to a nice start.
He completed 68 percent last year, with a 23-4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. Those are the best ever for rookies.
But focus for right now on his 104.9 passer rating (also the best ever for a rookie). Generally when a quarterback has a good passer rating as a rookie, that means he’s probably going to be good. When a rookie has a poor passer rating (like Jared Goff last year) that’s troubling.
Below see all 39 quarterbacks since 2000 who’ve attempted at least 200 passes in their first year. Of the quarterbacks with passer ratings above 80, only one can be called a bust (Robert Griffin III). He was kind of a special case, with Washington using him in an offense the NFL wasn’t ready for. He also has been set back by knee injuries.
But of the other 12 quarterbacks with passer ratings over 80, there are no busts. Mike Glennon and Nick Foles are on there, of course. Those guys aren’t All-Pros. But both were selected in the third round.
On the chart below, some of the names are in bold. For those quarterbacks, I am of the opinion that if we could turn the clock back, there is no way any team would consider taking them anywhere near as high as where they were chosen. Glennon and Foles, I am confident, wouldn’t make it through the first three rounds of those drafts, so they’re not in bold.
I didn’t put Bridgewater in bold. He had the big knee injury last year, of course, but he was really playing well in the preseason – I thought he was headed for a nice year.
Turning our attention to the bottom of the table, 19 quarterbacks had passer ratings under 75. Of that group, only one of those quarterbacks was able to really flip things around and become a big star – Matthew Stafford.
I’ve got three other quarterbacks down there that aren’t bolded yet. Goff has only played one year, so it’s too early to give up on him. Bortles may end up getting bolded, but it’s also early in his career – he’s at least put up some numbers. With Orton, he goes down as a good fourth-round pick – not a superstar, but a functional quarterback who had a solid career (would never last until the fourth round if teams could re-pick that draft).
Bottom line: I think Prescott is for real. I am in the process of scouting teams and players, but I am pretty confident Prescott at a minimum will be one of the top 14 quarterbacks on my board.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2000 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Rate |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 68% | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 104.9 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 66% | 3,200 | 20 | 5 | 102.4 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 64% | 3,118 | 26 | 10 | 100.0 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 66% | 2,621 | 17 | 11 | 98.1 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 62% | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 91.5 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 61% | 3,440 | 16 | 11 | 87.7 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 64% | 2,919 | 14 | 12 | 85.2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 60% | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 84.5 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 58% | 4,042 | 22 | 15 | 84.2 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 59% | 2,608 | 19 | 9 | 83.9 |
| 2012 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 63% | 1,699 | 6 | 5 | 82.1 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 58% | 3,398 | 20 | 13 | 80.4 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 60% | 2,971 | 14 | 12 | 80.3 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 62% | 3,782 | 16 | 14 | 79.3 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 59% | 1,972 | 11 | 9 | 77.7 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 58% | 3,270 | 21 | 12 | 76.6 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 54% | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 76.5 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 60% | 3,512 | 18 | 15 | 76.5 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 58% | 3,294 | 12 | 13 | 76.1 |
| 2010 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 61% | 1,576 | 6 | 9 | 74.5 |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 57% | 2,547 | 11 | 12 | 74.0 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 57% | 2,819 | 14 | 16 | 73.0 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 57% | 3,385 | 14 | 17 | 72.6 |
| 2002 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 52% | 1,539 | 9 | 8 | 71.8 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 56% | 1,630 | 7 | 8 | 70.4 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 54% | 1,853 | 13 | 13 | 70.1 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 59% | 2,908 | 11 | 17 | 69.5 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 52% | 2,199 | 12 | 13 | 66.7 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 56% | 3,046 | 12 | 21 | 66.5 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 51% | 2,214 | 12 | 11 | 65.4 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 55% | 1,089 | 5 | 7 | 63.6 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 54% | 2,444 | 12 | 20 | 63.0 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 52% | 2,592 | 9 | 15 | 62.8 |
| 2003 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 52% | 1,260 | 7 | 9 | 62.4 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 53% | 2,267 | 13 | 20 | 61.0 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 50% | 2,294 | 12 | 16 | 59.9 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 54% | 1,855 | 10 | 18 | 59.8 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 52% | 1,869 | 9 | 13 | 59.7 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 53% | 1,558 | 3 | 9 | 58.4 |
—Ian Allan