Doug Martin was pretty awful last year, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry. Is there any chance of this guy turning things around? Some of the problems were no doubt tied to the offensive line, but I remember journeyman Jacquizz Rodgers coming in to close out the San Diego game and outplaying him.
Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season, and I’m not confident he’ll even be on their team. He’s due $7 million, and he’s not worth that. I expect they’ll release him or force him to take a hefty pay cut. They could draft a replacement or sign one of the many free agent running backs looking for work. Adrian Peterson was working out with Jameis Winston recently, but they say he’s not in their plans.
Martin is 28 and was an effective back in 2015, so I suppose there’s some chance of him being a decent running back somewhere. But let’s look at some of the historical numbers. Specifically, how often does a player carry the ball at least 100 times, averaging under 3.0 yards per carry, then come back the next year and put together a good season?
In the last 20 years, there have been only 22 candidates to look at, so I’ve expanded it to backs averaging under 3.2 yards per attempt. That gives us 45 running backs, and we can then look at how those players did in their next season. (And as we move up to 3.2 per attempt, we pick up another pair from 2016 – Todd Gurley and Thomas Rawls.)
Only five of these 45 players (the year after their terrible seasons) ran for 800-plus yards. So either they didn’t get better, or they continued to be held back by the lesser offense around them.
Three of the 45 went over 1,000 yards and that includes two had been under 3.0 yards per carry – Marshall Faulk with injuries and a poor offensive line in Indianapolis in 1997, and Eddie George in Tennessee in 2002.
Overall, the success rate on these kind of backs has been pretty darn low. They’ve tended to stay bad. Thirteen of the 45 backs didn’t even play the next year, and another 18 hardly played (finishing with not more than 40 carries).
We’ll see what Martin’s situation is heading into training camp, but right now I’m not optimistic he’ll make much of an impact.
On this chart, the players are ordered by the crappiest of their yards per carry (the year before the season shown). Chester Taylor averaged only 2.4 yards per attempt – the lowest – so he’s listed first. When you get down to 2014 Trent Richardson, you’re getting the last of the guys under 3.0. The bottom half of the list, you’re seeing the guys between 3.0 and 3.2
| RUNNING BACKS AVERAGING UNDER 3.2 PER CARRY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Previous Year |
| 2011 | Chester Taylor, Ariz. | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 1 | 112-267-2.40-3 |
| 2000 | Natrone Means, Car. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 | 112-277-2.47-4 |
| 2009 | Chris Perry (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 104-269-2.60-2 |
| 2003 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | 197-529-2.68-3 |
| 2014 | Willis McGahee (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 138-377-2.73-2 |
| 1998 | Larry Centers, Ariz. | 31 | 110 | 3.5 | 0 | 101-276-2.73-1 |
| 2013 | Rashad Jennings, Oak. | 163 | 733 | 4.5 | 6 | 101-283-2.80-2 |
| 2009 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 143 | 598 | 4.2 | 8 | 143-399-2.80-10 |
| 2000 | Byron Hanspard (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 136-383-2.81-1 |
| 2007 | Kevan Barlow (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 131-370-2.82-6 |
| 2002 | • Warrick Dunn, Atl. | 230 | 927 | 4.0 | 7 | 158-447-2.82-3 |
| 2002 | James Jackson, Clev. | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 | 195-554-2.84-2 |
| 1998 | Darnell Autry (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 112-319-2.84-1 |
| 2000 | Adrian Murrell, Wash. | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 0 | 193-553-2.86-0 |
| 2014 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 93 | 366 | 3.9 | 2 | 152-436-2.86-2 |
| 2006 | Marcel Shipp, Ariz. | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 4 | 157-451-2.87-0 |
| 2017 | Doug Martin, T.B. | ? | ? | ? | ? | 144-421-2.90-3 |
| 2008 | Rudi Johnson, Det. | 76 | 237 | 3.1 | 1 | 170-497-2.90-3 |
| 2001 | Travis Prentice, Minn. | 14 | 13 | .9 | 2 | 173-512-2.95-7 |
| 1997 | • Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 264 | 1,054 | 4.0 | 7 | 198-587-2.96-7 |
| 2002 | • Eddie George, Tenn. | 343 | 1,165 | 3.4 | 12 | 315-939-2.98-5 |
| 2001 | Darnell Autry (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 112-334-2.98-3 |
| 2014 | Trent Richardson, Ind. | 159 | 519 | 3.3 | 3 | 188-563-2.99-3 |
| 1997 | Darick Holmes, Buff. | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 2 | 189-571-3.02-4 |
| 2000 | Joe Montgomery, NYG | 1 | 4 | -- | 1 | 115-348-3.02-3 |
| 2006 | Stephen Davis, St.L. | 40 | 177 | 4.4 | 0 | 180-549-3.04-12 |
| 1997 | Errict Rhett, T.B. | 31 | 96 | 3.1 | 3 | 176-539-3.06-3 |
| 2014 | Ray Rice (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 214-660-3.08-4 |
| 2001 | Jermaine Fazande (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 119-368-3.09-2 |
| 2002 | Lamar Smith, Car. | 209 | 737 | 3.5 | 7 | 313-968-3.09-6 |
| 2015 | Alfred Blue, Hou. | 183 | 698 | 3.8 | 2 | 169-528-3.10-2 |
| 2012 | Thomas Jones (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 153-478-3.10-0 |
| 2015 | Ben Tate (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 119-371-3.10-4 |
| 2000 | Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar, Ind. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 143-445-3.11-1 |
| 2006 | T.J. Duckett, Wash. | 38 | 132 | 3.5 | 2 | 121-380-3.14-8 |
| 1998 | Leeland McElroy (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 135-424-3.14-2 |
| 1998 | • Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar, Mia. | 270 | 960 | 3.6 | 6 | 283-892-3.15-15 |
| 2000 | • Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 248 | 1,133 | 4.6 | 8 | 195-616-3.15-0 |
| 2000 | Cecil Collins (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 131-414-3.16-2 |
| 2014 | Rashard Mendenhall (DNP) | -- | -- | -- | -- | 217-687-3.16-8 |
| 2000 | Curtis Enis, Chi. | 36 | 84 | 2.3 | 1 | 287-916-3.19-3 |
| 2003 | Leon Johnson, S.D. | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 103-329-3.19-1 |
| 2008 | Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 186 | 786 | 4.2 | 2 | 227-720-3.20-4 |
| 2011 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 84 | 390 | 4.6 | 2 | 171-555-3.20-4 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, L.A. | ? | ? | ? | ? | 278-885-3.20-6 |
| 2017 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? | 109-349-3.20-3 |
| 2015 | Toby Gerhart, Jac. | 20 | 44 | 2.2 | 0 | 101-326-3.20-2 |
| 2013 | LaRod Stephens-Howling, Pitt. | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | 111-357-3.20-4 |
—Ian Allan