Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Danny Woodhead going to catch a zillion passes? Is it better to rely on one expert (or the averaged recommendations of many analysts)? And should Melvin Gordon be chosen in the top 10?
Question 1
Thank you as always for your magazine and all your insight. I have a question on your Ravens and particularly on Danny Woodhead. You note that, with Mornhinweg taking over the offense, there should be fewer dumpoff passes to the RBs, thus limiting Flacco's production. When discussing Woodhead, however, you mention that the dumpoff pass is heavily featured in Baltimore's offense and that 50 catches is within reach. How do you get to 50 catches? I know that Juszczyk is gone, but West and Dixon each caught 30-plus passes last year (and Dixon, as you also wrote, could improve there this year). If we do drop the number of balls caught by RBs from last year's 118 (2nd-most, as you noted, last year) given the new offense, then where would all of Woodhead's catches come from? I could see quite a few in the first few weeks while Dixon is suspended, but after that ...
Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)
When it comes to using short passes to running backs, the key coaches are Sean Payton and Marc Trestman. Saints complete 120-plus passes to running backs every year. Trestman was Baltimore’s offensive coordinator the last two years, and the Ravens completed 127 and 118 passes to backs in those season. In Trestman’s last season in Chicago, the Bears completed 108 passes to running backs. Trestman prefers those little dumps to running backs rather traditional running plays. So now that Trestman is gone, the natural progression (I think) is for the running back catch total to decline. Marty Mornhinweg is the coordinator now, and in his last two seasons as an OC (with the Jets), that team completed 53 and 57 passes to running backs.
But this coordinator switch is a little different than most others. Trestman was fired halfway through last season. Mornhinweg has been in charge, and he didn’t dramatically re-work the offense in November-December last year. The Ravens have some offensive line issues, so that might not have the ability to mash things out on the ground – they might be forced to include more short passes than they would like to help with some of their protection problems. And they lost Dennis Pitta, who led them in catches last year. So I don’t see them moving all the way down to 60 catches (for running backs). I would think something more along the lines of 90 catches would be a fair guess, probably putting them in the top 10. (The league average last year was 79 completions to running backs.)
I don’t think West is a great pass catcher. Maybe he catches 20 balls. Dixon was a pretty good receiver in college; maybe he comes on and catches 35 (per 16 games) but he’s suspended for the start of the year. I think that would put Woodhead in line for about 45 grabs, but he’s an older back and he needs to stay healthy. I saw an article go by the other week in which the Ravens were talking about Woodhead helping to fill some of the Pitta void. Maxx Williams and Darren Waller are part of this issue – can they develop a young tight end to do some of the things Pitta was doing in the offense. If they can’t get that kind of production out of their tight ends, they’ll need Woodhead to be a key contributor. And can Dixon improve (his hands are good enough, but he statistically was terrible in the passing game last year). Lots of moving parts here.
Question 2
Getting the hard copy of the mag has been one of my favorite summer-time rituals since Bob Easter brought one down to Santa Clara back in '88! Much to like about the magazine (always good to see Bob's lifelong futility highlighted in print - see Editor's Note), but one of my favorite features is the Experts Poll. One thing I am wondering ... do you calculate the scores for the consensus rankings? It would be cool to see how the wisdom of the (Expert) crowd ranks vs. the individual experts. Keep up the good work.
Phil Montalbano (BAFL (Los Angeles Schaefermen))
I would have guessed that the consensus rankings would have been about average. But I have looked into some results, and that’s not the case. It seems like they tend to be better than that. For the experts poll last year, for example, the consensus finished 3rd out of 21. The previous year, the consensus ranked 7th (in the top third). The overall totals are built out of six different positions, and if you look at those, the consensus finished 11th (exactly average) four times, 10th three times, and between 4th and 7th (in the top third) five times.
I thought those results were interesting, so I also looked at the totals for the 2016 Fantasy Index Open. For that competition, the consensus ranked 30th out of 224 – the top 13 percent. For that one, the consensus ranked in the top third in QB and WR, the top 20 percent for running backs and the top 5 percent for tight ends. Weird. But the consensus wasn’t as successful for defenses (slightly below average) or kickers (bottom 16 percent).
Too early to draw definitive conclusions, but it appears there might be some “Groupthink” value. When you take a bunch of picks, maybe the averaging does a good job of washing out the outlier mistakes, without too badly undermining the good recommendations of the people who know what they’re talking about. I will continue to look into this dynamic going forward (every time I’m scoring an Experts Poll or a Fantasy Index Open, I will also check to see how the consensus fares).
Question 3
Your scouting report in the magazine suggests that Melvin Gordon is in for a big year on what probably will be a bad team. Is he worth a first-round pick in 10-team standard-scoring leagues? I was thinking he's more of a second-round guy, but you correctly point out that he's all the Chargers have at RB. Do you think he will slip to the second round because the Chargers are almost certainly in for another sub-.500 season?
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
I like that he’s about all they have. He’ll get their goal-line carries, and I think he’ll catch plenty of passes. He’s got to stay healthy, of course, but that’s the case with all running backs. The Chargers won’t necessarily be a bad team. AFC West is tough, but that might be more of a middle-of-the-pack team. I’m not crazy about picking in the second half of the first round, but I think that’s where Gordon belongs.
Question 4
Thanks for years of service! I am in a 10-team league, where all rookie deals are $1 in a $200 cap (standard scoring with .5 PPR). Our rookie draft is coming up next week and I have the #3 & 13 picks. The draft will go Fournette, then Cook (homer pick, we live in Minnesota) and I would like to know who you would take at #3 and aim for at #13, because I trust your assessments. I am leaning Corey Davis, as the RBs I have under contract are Elliott, Crowell, Coleman, Perkins, Powell and Prosise.
Ryan Logan (Minneapolis, MN)
I’m not a big Davis fan. I’m aware that he went 5th overall, but he doesn’t seem to me to be a can’t-miss guy like what you would typically get in that spot. I don’t see him as an A.J. Green, Julio Jones or Amari Cooper type of prospect. If he steps on the field and really rips it up in the preseason, we can re-visit that issue, but for now I see him as a guy who more commonly would have been picked 15th to 25th in a usual first round of an NFL draft. Is he better than the other two wide receivers selected in the top 10? I think most NFL teams had Mike Williams higher on their draft boards. John Ross to me looks like another Brandin Cooks. For me, I’d be looking hard at Joe Mixon with that No. 3 pick. I’m aware you have some other backs, but some of those guys will fall by the wayside. He punched the woman at the restaurant, of course, breaking bones in her face, but I don’t see that as much of a factor. It happened three years ago. Tyreek Hill had a similar incident in college and went on to have a great rookie season with Kansas City. Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston have been involved in off-field incidents, but they seem to have matured and moved past that kind of stuff.
Question 5
Got my mag yesterday ... these are the best of times! :) I see you have Jeremy Maclin at the bottom of your standard cheat sheet as an UFA and Eric Decker isn't even listed. Where might you rank them now that they've both signed and (IMO) both look like high volume WRs in their new offenses.
MICHAEL CROW (Orion, IL)
I believe Maclin and Mike Wallace will be the starting receivers in Baltimore, and I don’t see much difference between them. They’ve also got Breshad Perriman, but I think he’ll be more of a No. 3, running primarily deep routes. I’m not excited about any of these receivers. I think you need to get 40 wide receivers into a draft before you start thinking about Maclin or Wallace. As for Decker, I’m not sure how much he has left. The Jets cut him. They didn’t think he was worth $7 million, and other teams didn’t seem to be too interested in signing him either. Decker is 30 and coming off multiple surgeries. I don’t think he’s as good as Rishard Matthews. Matthews put up top-4 numbers in the second half of last year – 588 yards and 6 TDs. They selected Corey Davis No. 5 overall, and he might be better than Decker immediately. Decker caught double-digit touchdowns with the Broncos and Jets, but time marches on. A year ago this same front office signed Andre Johnson, thinking that he’d come in and be their No. 1 wide receiver. I will pass on Decker. I’ve currently got him as the 60th-best wide receiver on the board, but my gut tells me that’s probably too high.
Question 6
Sentimental question. Can we get your favorite 5-year period of the NFL? What 5-year period did you most enjoy being a fan? And, if it's any different, what was your favorite 5-year period of participating in fantasy football?
Ryan Peterson (Phoenix, AZ)
I started following football in the ‘70s and latched onto the Steelers. I liked the black uniforms and the rugged defense. I liked that they had decals on only one side of their helmet. They had a guy named Mean Joe, Ernie Holmes had his hair cut in the shape of an arrow, and L.C. Greenwood wore yellow shoes. Franco Harris was my favorite. And I got caught up in the Immaculate Reception. They took off in the 1974 season, and that helped fuel my interest in football. I was all in on the Steelers, with the Sears jacket, matching knit hat, and a #32 jersey. For fantasy football, I’ll go with the early years – late ‘80s and early ‘90s, when the game was fresh and new.
Question 7
A very "HEARTY" thank you for including the FFPC scoring model in your cheat sheets this year, such a huge help! In last weeks mailbag where several of the long-time readers were talking about their histories playing the game and especially the INDEX's value to us over the years it got me to thinking about the publication over the years. I remember really liking the column "LUKE THE TRUTH ESSER" used to write every year, have you ever thought of re-printing some of his stuff or having him back once in a while? Unfortunately I did not have the foresight as some did to save all of my past issues. I think he goes by "Coach Esser" on Twitter now.
Jay Harding (Oregon City, OR)
Luke Esser is a talented writer – funny as hell. We got to know him when we were working together on the student newspaper at the University of Washington in the ‘80s. But politics is his real love. He’s been a state senator and the chairman of the GOP in Washington state, and he’s a lobbyist now. When he moved into that arena, it was no longer possible for him to sit in with us for a column each year. He is not related to the East Coast fantasy writer who maintains the “Coach Esser” website.