It's a big week for fantasy drafts, with the only remaining preseason games ones in which nearly every starter will be standing on the sidelines. Shouldn't have to worry much about losing the Ware, Edelman and Meredith types. I have a couple of drafts this week myself, and when my picks come up, I have a list of players at each position I will not be drafting.
To be clear, of course if players fall too far, I'll make exceptions. Say I won't draft Jordan Howard, for example, doesn't mean that if he falls to the 5th round I'll still be looking past him for some random committee back. What I'm saying is that even if such and such a player is the best ranked "value" at a certain spot, I'll be looking to select the 2nd- or 3rd-best value instead.
So here's a starting lineup of players who won't be on my teams this year.
Carson Palmer, Arizona. Pretty straightforward. He's old, he's immobile, he's brittle, he's playing behind a lesser offensive line, and he's got a questionable receiving corps around him. I don't like his chances of staying healthy, and I don't expect he'll regularly produce big numbers. Best that can be said is he has a favorable early schedule, so if he somehow finds his way onto my team, I can at least ship him off after a few games. But no, ain't drafting him.
Jordan Howard, Chicago. Howard is a young, talented franchise back. He's the centerpiece of the offense, and I actually traded for him in a dynasty league this offseason. (I traded Rob Gronkowski, who would also be on my Do Not Draft list if it weren't already pretty obvious.) But in 2017, he's going to be on a team with no passing game to speak of. Either a bad quarterback or a developing rookie, and sounds like their No. 1 wide receiver is going to be Kendall Wright. I'm getting a sense of 2016 Todd Gurley here, and I want no part of that.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco. Hyde is a talented enough guy who should be the main running back in San Francisco. But I'm wary. Either he'll get injured, or San Francisco will want to show how smart they are by getting one of their young running backs onto the field, or they'll want to for some bizarre reason stick Tim Hightower out there, since his career arc seems to be stealing fantasy value from younger, more talented backs.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis. Hilton is a great young wideout, but his skill set requires a quarterback who can get him the ball. I don't think that player is on Indy's roster if Andrew Luck isn't out there healthy. Around where Hilton will be drafted, there are plenty of other great, talented wideouts available whose quarterbacks don't have no timetable for return just two weeks before the season.
Alshon Jeffery, Philadelphia. Maybe I'm missing something, but I've been truly amazed at how high this guy is being drafted. Injury risk, suspension risk, new offensive system, young quarterback. I see more risk than upside.
Sammy Watkins, Rams. I guess this one is kind of obvious, especially when you factor in that I drafted him in the third round a year ago and he nearly killed my team. He's a Ram, he's working with a young unproven quarterback, and I'm not sure he's the best wideout on the team. He's definitely the biggest injury risk. Pass on Watkins.
Eric Ebron, Detroit. There are really too many tight ends to avoid to name. I'll end up drafting an injury-prone guy like Jordan Reed or Tyler Eifert -- drafted both in one league last week, figuring each week one of them should be healthy -- because at least I know that they don't suck. Ebron has some health questions, plus I don't know that he doesn't suck. He won't be on any of my teams.
Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland. I just don't like the guy. I'm not really clear how he's kept a job in the league for so long, given his accuracy issues. Does the fact that he can maybe nail a 60-yard field goal make up for the strong possibility he'll miss a key one from 40? He's stuck around with Oakland primarily, I think, because no one gets on the kicker when a team is going 5-11 year after year. Now Oakland is a playoff contender, and I'm confident Janikowski will blow a key kick late in the year.
Seattle Defense. I like the Seattle defense. The reason I will not draft them is that year after year, in every draft, somebody takes them way too early. Best is when they get drafted in fantasy leagues that don't give credit for points allowed. In sack- and turnover-based leagues the Seahawks haven't ranked in the top 12 in any of the last three seasons, yet somebody always makes them the first defense drafted and is all excited about it. Not me.
Who's on your Do Not Draft list? Let's hear them.