Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition, it's roster adjustment time. When should we give up on underperformers like Marvin Jones and Hunter Henry? And when is it time to take a flyer on guys who aren't even on the field right now (Will Fuller, Josh Gordon)? And is this Adam Thielen guy going to be putting up 100-plus yards every week?
Question 1
Will Fuller's not on many radar screens. Where does he fit in your thinking for a Dynasty league, PPR format? For instance, how does he compare to Richardson (Sea), Gabriel (Atl), Crowder (Wash), or some of the rookie WRs: Golladay, Ross?
Scott Tausk (Western Springs, IL)
Fuller can play. We’ve seen that. Like DeSean Jackson, he’s shown some ability to run by defenses for long touchdowns. He ran a 4.32 at the combine, and that’s speed that translates onto the field. He went over 100 yards in both of his first two games. Now he needs to improve his pass-catching ability, and that’s hard to do. He dropped way too many balls at Notre Dame, and that was also an issue in his rookie year, eventually punctuated by him dropping a 45-yard touchdown in the playoff loss at New England. Not to go Marco Rubio on this, but he’s got small hands, and that might have something to do with the drop problems. He’s not one of those big, shovel-handed guys who catches the ball even when a defender is hanging onto one of his arms. One of the guys you mention – Golladay – doesn’t run like Fuller but seems to have that contested catch ability. With Fuller, the other issue is Houston’s offensive line. It’s a major liability now, so it will be difficult for that team to set up to launch those big plays downfield. Fuller lives on those. If you’re carrying Fuller, it’s because you’re thinking/hoping he’ll score some of those long touchdowns. They don’t look particularly likely this year. So for this year (once he’s healthy) I don’t see him being anywhere near as productive as Crowder. For the long-term, I think you’ve identified a comparable group of wide receivers. With the here-and-now value, I would take Crowder first out of that group. Ross is a top-10 pick, and he could wind up being a Fuller-type receiver a year from now (only with better hands).
Question 2
Going forward, what is your sense for whether Adam Thielen can bust out more production similar to his Week 1 output? If you're a Thielen owner would you try to trade him quickly for a WR you had ranked significantly higher who perhaps had only a mediocre initial showing? Or see him as a threat to be a top-20 WR now?
Greg Resin (Torrance, CA)
Thielen is for real, I think. He had to work his way into the league as an undrafted free agent who spent a year on the practice squad, but he has the necessary speed and route-running ability. He can catch the ball in traffic. He wasn’t bad last year, averaging 10.5 yards per target – 4th-best in the league among the 92 wide receivers who had at least 50 passes thrown their way. This year they’re using him a little differently, lining him up more often in the slot, letting him work the middle of the field – so I think he’ll catch more balls. I saw him make a couple of big-time catches on Monday night. I think he’s better than any wide receiver on some of the other rosters around the league – Bills, Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Bears. With Larry Fitzgerald and Pierre Garcon being older guys, maybe we should be him ahead of Arizona and San Francisco as well. I do not see the Vikings as a one-week wonder. I think they’ll continue to have plenty of good games, with that passing offense probably being the one that I most underrated in August. For fantasy purposes, my only worry with Thielen is that he won’t be a great scorer. Stefon Diggs looks like he’s emerging into a top-tier, difference-making wide receiver, and they’ve always liked using Kyle Rudolph in the red zone.
Question 3
I'm reading that Josh Gordon is aiming for reinstatement to the league by end of September. Considering he hasn't played in the NFL since 2014, is he at all worth freeing up a roster spot for? In my case it'd involve dropping someone like Derrick Henry, Kendall Wright or Buck Allen.
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
I have been thinking about bringing in Gordon. I understand that he’s missed all of the last two years, but he’s only 26. He was pretty remarkable back in 2013. That was the year the league suspended him for the first two games, but he came back and led the league in receiving yards anyway, averaging 118 per game, with 9 TDs in 14 games. He was not as impressive in 2014. Only five games that year (joining the team late in the year); he had a big opener at the Georgia Dome before tailing off. But that was a pretty awful team – just 12 TD passes all year, and only 10 teams finished with fewer passing yards. Gordon last year on social media posted a photo of himself working out, and he seemed to be in pretty incredible shape. I’m not sure where he would be playing (do the Browns even want him? Or would they try to deal him?) but it seems like there’s at least some chance he could re-emerge as a top-15 wide receiver. I wouldn’t release Derrick Henry to make room for a flyer on Gordon, but I would be thinking about whether Gordon might make more sense than Allen and Wright. It’s mid-September now. Maybe let those guys be in Week 2, evaluating what they’re up to. Then maybe bring in Gordon in the middle of next week, holding onto him for a week or two until it becomes apparent if he might make it back on the field.
Question 4
Love the magazine, which has long been a staple of my fantasy drafting, and has rarely steered me wrong. But on that, a question: why were you so high on Marvin Jones in your later draft rankings? It seemed out of step with everyone else's rankings.
DARREN THORNE (Thornhill, ON)
I think Jones will be good. Both him and Golden Tate, and I’m not sure which one will be better. Tate will work in the slot more, catching more short balls. Jones will get downfield more. They’ve also got Kenny Golladay, who’s an up-and-comer who caught 2 TDs in the opener, but he’s still figuring out what the pro game is all about. Heading into the Arizona game, the plan was for Golladay and T.J. Jones to split time (team wasn’t sure which one of them was their 3rd-best receiver). Jones, of course, did very little in the opener, catching only 2 passes, but he had Patrick Peterson following him around for the bulk of the game, and Peterson might be the best corner in the league. I saw Jones play well in the preseason games, including a couple of touchdowns on fade routes around the goal line. Still a contender for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, in my opinion.
Question 5
Hunter Henry. I saw a preseason Dynasty cheat sheet somewhere that had him #1 overall for TEs. I saw on the NFL Network that an opposing coach said he was totally uncoverable. Week 1 would suggest he could be another Ladarius Green or Eric Ebron. I'm wondering if they're trying to get stats for Gates at the expense of the team. Thoughts?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
Henry was on the field for 23 plays and didn’t have any passes thrown his way. I re-watched some of that game and didn’t see any sign that the team was making an effort to use him more as a blocker to counter Denver’s pass rush. They just didn’t look his way, and they more often used formations with three wide receivers and just one tight end. When they had only one tight end on the field, it more usually was Antonio Gates. Gates was on the field for 39 plays but also didn’t play much of a role, catching only 2 passes for 17 yards. The game has been noted, but way too early, I think, to start drawing sweeping conclusions. These two tight ends combined for 15 TDs last year, and I’m sure they’ll show up more prominently in future games. To me, Henry looks like a young Jason Witten – a tight end who’s going to be very good for years and years.
Question 6
With the Elliott situation still up in the air, according to your rankings it appears that you like Morris over McFadden if one were to have to step into the lineup for six games. Is that an accurate statement? Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we think Morris was 2nd last year, only to see DMC step in? Could they simply be keeping him fresh if he has to go? Thanks for your insight.
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
I think Morris is the backup, but I can’t say that with certainty. McFadden seemed to have that role in the preseason – he appeared before Morris in all of the preseason games. And McFadden is still listed as the No. 2 tailback on the unofficial depth chart posted at the team’s website. How often they update that, I have no idea. Both backs played fine in the preseason, averaging over 5 yards per carry. In their first game, McFadden was inactive, with Morris in that No. 2 role. Neither one of these guys plays special teams, so that wasn’t a decision driven by one of them being better at covering kickoffs or whatever. Maybe McFadden has some kind of injury that affected his availability, but that wasn’t mentioned on the team’s injury report. So I’m thinking that for now, Morris appears to be their No. 2 tailback.
Question 7
So, Mike Gillislee. Perfect time for the classic "sell high" trade?
P M (Undisclosed Location - Central Asia , AE)
I think he’s for real. Patriots, I think, are still as likely as anyone to lead the league in scoring, and they punch in a lot of rushing touchdowns – an NFL-high 90 TD runs over the last five years. There were only 19 rushing touchdowns scored in Week 1, and Gillislee scored 3 of them. He will not be a factor as a pass catcher, and I don’t think he’ll run for gobs of yards (they’re also going to use White, Burkhead and Lewis) but he’s their goal-line guy.
Question 8
Nice game from Tyreek Hill this past Thursday, where it was clear how much the Chiefs have integrated him into their offense - great call! When considering his build, play style, and expanded role, do you think he can stay healthy over 16 games and maintain this level of production? What's the health track record of speedsters like him? Noticed he had to step out briefly during the game (thigh cramps), so wondering if that might be a sign of things to come and whether owners should think about selling high in the first few weeks of the season.
Alan Slater (Philadelphia, PA)
If Hill is piling up so many yards and long touchdowns that his legs start cramping up, that’s a good thing, isn’t it? Looks like he’s going to be a top-10 receiver to me. I suppose he carries more injury risk than other wide receivers. He’ll probably carry the ball 3-5 times on end-arounds in most games, exposing him to extra tackles. In the opening game, the Patriots were very much aware of the danger of letting him get outside – they steered him back into the middle, where he could run into some linebackers. But KC seems aware of the need to keep him healthy. They’ve pulled him off their kickoff return unit, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they also spelled him at times on punt returns. But a special player, and if you don’t want him, I’m sure you’ll have no problem finding a buyer to take him off your hands.
Question 9
I see Rawls is way down in the rankings. Is that because of the uncertainty of Seattle's backfield, injury or something else? I have Javorius Allen I could play in Rawls spot but it looks like SF run DEF is suspect and Cleveland only gave up 43 yards on the ground.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
San Francisco ranked last against the run a year ago, but they’re a lot better than that now. They held up pretty well against Carolina, with both Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey averaging 3.6 per attempt. With Seattle’s run game, I just re-worked the projections entirely, starting from scratch. Room had to be made for Chris Carson. He’s going to be part of that backfield. And if he’s running for 400-600 yards, it stands to reason that the other running backs there won’t be as productive. Eddie Lacy could be the 4th running back there (which is how it looked in August, when Carson kept outplaying him). Prosise is more of a third-down back, at least for now. I still have Rawls as their top back. And with all four, they’ve got to get the offensive line fixed. The injury to left tackle George Fant could be huge. He might have been headed for a breakout-type year – might have been an average left tackle. The two new starters on the left side, Rees Odhiambo and Luke Joeckel, looked really iffy in the first game. Both gave up turnstile hits on the quarterback early in that game, letting their guys run right by them. Joeckel was a disaster in Jacksonville, and he seems to be very much that same guy. Eventually, I suppose, the team will either coach those guys up or find something that works, but I don’t think we can count on that happening this week.
Question 10
If you were drafting today, how far would you move Hunt up your draft board? He was already trending at the end of the 2nd, beginning of 3rd round. Or even Tyreek Hill for that matter.
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
They’re great players. Hunt will produce as both a runner and as a pass catcher, and that’s a team that calls plenty of running plays around the goal line – 17, 18, 19 and 15 rushing touchdowns the last four years. Conservatively, he’s going to be a top-5 back. David Johnson will miss the bulk of the season, Ezekiel Elliott could still be slapped with a six-game suspension, and I think that leaves LeVeon Bell as the only back I would definitely select before Hunt. As for Hill, I’m think he’s a top-10 receiver. He’s unpolished in terms of playing wide receiver. I saw him drop half of the 6 passes thrown to him in the preseason, including a couple of the concentration variety. But he’s the most explosive player in the league, and I think he’ll regularly be hitting on some long touchdowns.
Question 11
I have Gordon, Hunt & Cook at RB (only start two, no flex). Looking to upgrade WR by trading Cook or Hunt. Who would you choose to trade & what should I expect in return? Someone like Cooks or Thomas, or aim higher for someone like Nelson, Evans, or Green?
Jarrett Applegate (Manchester, MO)
If you were redrafting today, I expect all three of those backs would be among the first seven players (not running backs, but players) selected in the first round, so I would be careful about trading away any of them. I would need to get something special in return. I don’t see a big difference between the three. If I were forced to move one, I suppose it would be Cook. I don’t think that offensive line is great. In the Saints game, I saw a lot of plays getting stopped near the line of scrimmage. He had 32- and 33-yard runs in the fourth quarter, but his other 20 attempts went for 62 yards.
Question 12
Where would you rank Alex Smith if you were drafting today?
Bill Zonghetti (Bethesda, MD)
I’m not a big Smith fan. I saw him hit on a couple of longer throws in the preseason, but I think he’s still pretty much the same guy he’s been for the bulk of his career. I understand that he went for over 300 yards, with 4 TDs, in the opener, but I think that’s going to prove to be an outlier game. New England didn’t have a good night defensively, and the 75-yard touchdown to Hill was on a completely blown coverage. Go back and re-watch the first half. I remember thinking to myself, “well, looks like all that talk about Smith evolving this year was completely overblown – he’s still Alex Smith”. He’s a good game manager who’ll avoid turnovers, but I don’t think he’ll win games throwing the ball downfield. I don’t think he’ll be a top-15 quarterback this year.
Question 13
Suggestion for the Redrafter: Is there any way you can compile a list of top 10 or 20 handcuffs/obscure guys that probably aren't on fantasy rosters that maybe should be for whatever reason? Perhaps a paragraph or two of why for players that may be new to the list? Keep up the great work, guys.
BRYAN BERTSCH (Hopkins, MN)
We put together the Redrafter text for Tuesday morning, and I try to not make that product too long. We’ve got to scout and research all the games, and that’s all got to be finished by Wednesday morning. Not a lot of time. But the Redrafter each week contains depth charts for all teams, so you can look and see who the handcuff guys and third and fourth receivers for each team are. Any time there’s a change on the player order for any team, that’s mentioned in the write-ups. With Minnesota last week, for example, I noted that we now consider Jerick McKinnon rather than Latavius Murray to be the backup tailback, and in the Tennessee capsule, there was explanation of why we were moving Corey Davis ahead of Rishard Matthews. Each week we’re doing projections including 50 QB, 100 RB, 50 TE and 120 WR. On your end, you then need to then look at those rankings and see who the top 5, 10, 20 guys are who aren’t on rosters.
Question 14
Would you trade Kelvin Benjamin, Jamaal Charles and Jimmy Graham for Demaryius Thomas, Robert Kelley and Greg Olsen? I could use extra depth at Running Back. Let me know what you think.
DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)
Graham and Olsen are comparable, I think. And I don’t think there’s much difference between Benjamin and Demaryius Thomas. Kelley, I think, is the key guy. I think he’s a lot better than Charles, so I would want to be on the Kelley side of the trade.