They say that 20 percent of the people do 80 percent of the work. You wear 20 percent of your clothes 80 percent of the time. And in any given society, 80 percent of the wealth will be possessed by 20 percent of the people. It’s the 80/20 rule, also known as the Pareto Principle.
I struggle with how to score the Experts Poll and the Fantasy Index Open, so I thought I would bring in some Pareto concepts for a tryout.
With “Standard” scoring, which is the official scoring system for both contests, you get more and more credit the higher a player is ranked. Greg Zuerlein, for example, was the No. 1 kicker, scoring 158 points. If you ranked him first, you would receive 3,950 points (25 x 158). If you ranked him 2nd, that would get you 3,792 (24 x 158). And so on. Standard can also employ a 20-1 scale (20th pick = 158 points – 158 x 1) but I’ve been using a 25-6 scale to give more weight to hitting on good picks in the teens.
I have also toyed around with “Waiver Wire” scoring, in which only starting players are scored. With any pick lower than the 12th quarterback, kicker, tight end or defense, 24th running back or 30th wide receiver, those picks are just tossed out. The assumption is you would find guys on the waiver wire along the way (negating the impact of completely missing on a pick like Andrew Luck). But that system feels a little loosey-goosey, with too many arbitrary assumptions, and too many picks getting tossed out.
As a possible improvement, I’m looking at some tweaks. A system I’ll call Pareto Scoring.
With this scoring system, the top 80 percent of your picks in each category count. So with quarterbacks, for example, you look at the 16 highest-scoring guys you mentioned, and they’re scored in the usual way. The four lowest-scoring players then get upgraded to equal whatever the 16th-best player scored. All 20 experts, for example, included Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in their top 10. So instead of getting totally nailed for those choice, they get the production of their 16th-best quarterback. There’s a slight variance in the substitution numbers, with the contestants who did a better job of identifying the 16 highest-scoring quarterbacks getting a slightly better plug-in player.
It’s like the Waiver Wire system, but slightly better, I think. It seems to make more sense. With the Waiver Wire system, there’s the assumptions about there being twice as many starting running backs and wide receivers, but I don’t think that quite makes sense, since our forecasters are selecting 20 players at each position.
Anyway, I ran the numbers, and on this one I used a 20-1 descending scale on scoring. With everyone’s 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th picks at each position getting upgraded to 16th, I didn’t want to magnify those upgrades by also inflating the value of the picks in the teens.
| EXPERTS POLL (Pareto Scoring with 20-1 scale) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst | QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | Def | Points |
| Jeff Ratcliffe | 2 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 198,324 |
| Mike Clay | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 197,825 |
| Sam Hendricks | 7 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 196,779 |
| Ryan McDowell | 6 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 196,625 |
| Bob Henry | 4 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 196,619 |
| Jody Smith | 8 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 196,608 |
| Tony Holm | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 196,338 |
| Scott Pianowski | 14 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 195,976 |
| Justin Eleff | 13 | 16 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 195,620 |
| Michael Nazarek | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 195,533 |
| Ryan Murphy | 11 | 17 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 194,800 |
| Scott Sachs | 10 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 194,136 |
| Lenny Pappano | 5 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 194,094 |
| Alan Satterlee | 16 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 193,583 |
| Ken Valis | 15 | 19 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 191,984 |
| Cory Bonini | 12 | 7 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 191,456 |
| David Dorey | 17 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 190,801 |
| Chris Liss | 19 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 190,216 |
| Paul Charchian | 18 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 12 | 190,023 |
| L.A. Hale | 20 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 185,722 |
I also ran the numbers using a 25-6 scale, and they look pretty similar. Only one expert moved by more than one spot (with Justin Eleff falling from 9th to 11th).
| EXPERTS POLL (Pareto Scoring with 25-6 scale) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst | QB | RB | WR | TE | PK | Def | Points |
| Jeff Ratcliffe | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 290,049 |
| Mike Clay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 288,989 |
| Sam Hendricks | 7 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 287,473 |
| Bob Henry | 3 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 287,461 |
| Ryan McDowell | 8 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 287,255 |
| Jody Smith | 9 | 12 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 286,841 |
| Scott Pianowski | 14 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 286,588 |
| Tony Holm | 4 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 286,573 |
| Michael Nazarek | 12 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 286,299 |
| Ryan Murphy | 6 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 285,867 |
| Justin Eleff | 13 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 285,407 |
| Scott Sachs | 11 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 284,684 |
| Lenny Pappano | 5 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 283,986 |
| Alan Satterlee | 15 | 10 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 280,514 |
| Cory Bonini | 10 | 9 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 279,970 |
| Ken Valis | 16 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 279,165 |
| David Dorey | 17 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 278,961 |
| Paul Charchian | 18 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 20 | 8 | 278,731 |
| Chris Liss | 19 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 278,009 |
| L.A. Hale | 20 | 11 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 272,521 |
Ultimately, I don’t think the scoring system matters all that much. Every year I score this contest in different ways, and the same entries tend to bubble to the top. This year, Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus and Mike Clay of ESPN came out on top in all of the scoring formats. Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) and Ryan McDowell (Dynasty League Football) finished in the top 5 in all formats.
| EXPERTS POLL (3 different scoring systems) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst | Company | Std | WW | Pareto |
| Jeff Ratcliffe | Pro Football Focus | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Clay | ESPN | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Sam Hendricks | Extra Point Press | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Ryan McDowell | Dynasty League Football | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Bob Henry | FootballGuys | 3 | 10 | 5 |
| Jody Smith | Gridiron Experts | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Tony Holm | Fantasy Sharks | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Justin Eleff | Fantasy Index Podcast | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Scott Pianowski | Yahoo Sports | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Michael Nazarek | Fantasy Football Mastermind | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Lenny Pappano | Draft Sharks | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| Ryan Murphy | East Berlin, Pa. | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| Chris Liss | RotoWire | 12 | 12 | 18 |
| Alan Satterlee | Charlotte Observer | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| Ken Valis | Gaithersburg, Md. | 18 | 11 | 15 |
| Scott Sachs | Perfect Season FF | 16 | 18 | 12 |
| Cory Bonini | USA Today Fantasy Sports | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| David Dorey | The Huddle | 15 | 20 | 17 |
| Paul Charchian | LeagueSafe | 19 | 14 | 19 |
| L.A. Hale | Fantasy Gives | 20 | 19 | 20 |
—Ian Allan