You hear a lot about wide receivers breaking out in their third seasons. So it would be a trend that would benefit guys like Josh Doctson, Corey Coleman and Will Fuller in 2018, if true. But how accurate is it, really?
I took a look at all wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds from 2006 to 2015 -- so, a 10-year period, ending with wide receivers who just completed their third seasons. How many of those players broke out in Year 3 versus Years 1 or 2?
Right off the bat, I ditched players who didn't reach 800 yards in any of their first three seasons. No need to spend a lot of time with the Cody Latimer and Phillip Dorsett types. Hey, maybe those guys will break out in Year 4; it happens. Robert Woods just had his best season in his fourth year in the league. But we're looking at whether guys who actually have breakout seasons are more likely to do it in Year 3 than in their rookie or second seasons.
From that 10-year block of time, we get 46 eligible wideouts -- players drafted in the first three rounds who had an 800-yard season at some point in their first three years. Players listed in bold broke out in Year 3; many went over 1,000 yards for the first time, or turned in an 800-plus yard season after not doing much of anything their first two years in the league. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and most recently Devin Funchess qualify.
Players listed in italics clearly broke out in their second season. Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins,. Some of those guys had big third seasons, but that wasn't when they broke out.
Players in neither bold nor italics were great (or at least consistent) from Day 1. Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, Mike Evans. If they went over 1,ooo yards as rookies, they didn't "break out" in year 2 even if they put up big numbers.
| DRAFTED WRS (ROUNDS 1-3), FIRST THREE SEASONS (2006-2015) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Yds | TD | Yds | TD | Yds | TD |
| 2013 | 1 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 802 | 2 | 1210 | 6 | 1521 | 11 |
| 2010 | 1 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 283 | 2 | 551 | 4 | 1434 | 10 |
| 2011 | 1 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 1057 | 7 | 1350 | 11 | 1426 | 11 |
| 2010 | 1 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 561 | 8 | 928 | 9 | 1382 | 12 |
| 2014 | 1 | 12 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 1305 | 12 | 1450 | 13 | 1367 | 10 |
| 2012 | 3 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 861 | 7 | 1083 | 5 | 1345 | 7 |
| 2014 | 1 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 1051 | 12 | 1206 | 3 | 1321 | 12 |
| 2007 | 2 | 44 | Sidney Rice, Minn. | 396 | 4 | 141 | 4 | 1,312 | 8 |
| 2006 | 2 | 52 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 632 | 3 | 920 | 12 | 1292 | 9 |
| 2007 | 2 | 51 | Steve Smith, NYG | 63 | 0 | 574 | 1 | 1220 | 7 |
| 2009 | 3 | 84 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 756 | 6 | 1257 | 10 | 1193 | 8 |
| 2009 | 1 | 29 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 790 | 6 | 1052 | 11 | 1192 | 7 |
| 2014 | 1 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 550 | 4 | 1138 | 9 | 1173 | 8 |
| 2014 | 2 | 63 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 758 | 5 | 1157 | 6 | 1136 | 4 |
| 2012 | 2 | 45 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 367 | 3 | 1421 | 7 | 1133 | 10 |
| 2011 | 2 | 58 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 841 | 7 | 855 | 8 | 1128 | 4 |
| 2010 | 3 | 87 | Eric Decker, Den. | 106 | 1 | 612 | 8 | 1064 | 13 |
| 2008 | 2 | 49 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 912 | 4 | 1156 | 12 | 1056 | 8 |
| 2014 | 2 | 53 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 446 | 3 | 483 | 1 | 997 | 12 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 756 | 5 | 1331 | 12 | 984 | 5 |
| 2009 | 1 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 124 | 1 | 366 | 1 | 975 | 4 |
| 2009 | 1 | 22 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 790 | 8 | 868 | 7 | 967 | 9 |
| 2008 | 3 | 95 | Mario Manningham, NYG | 26 | 0 | 822 | 5 | 944 | 9 |
| 2014 | 1 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 1008 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 941 | 7 |
| 2012 | 2 | 63 | Rueben Randle, NYG | 298 | 3 | 611 | 6 | 938 | 3 |
| 2014 | 2 | 61 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 548 | 2 | 1400 | 14 | 883 | 6 |
| 2009 | 1 | 10 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 625 | 2 | 741 | 6 | 874 | 4 |
| 2007 | 3 | 79 | Mike Sims-Walker, Jac. | 0 | 0 | 217 | 0 | 869 | 7 |
| 2009 | 1 | 19 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 773 | 4 | 964 | 10 | 859 | 5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 39 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 422 | 1 | 191 | 1 | 851 | 3 |
| 2012 | 1 | 13 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 562 | 2 | 1041 | 5 | 841 | 6 |
| 2013 | 3 | 74 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 736 | 5 | 621 | 8 | 840 | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 41 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 473 | 5 | 371 | 4 | 840 | 8 |
| 2006 | 1 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 824 | 3 | 942 | 8 | 821 | 5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 42 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 872 | 8 | 997 | 8 | 804 | 3 |
| 2013 | 3 | 76 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 1046 | 8 | 783 | 4 | 725 | 4 |
| 2012 | 1 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 626 | 4 | 1079 | 2 | 715 | 6 |
| 2015 | 1 | 4 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 1070 | 6 | 1153 | 5 | 680 | 7 |
| 2008 | 2 | 42 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 980 | 5 | 345 | 2 | 627 | 3 |
| 2007 | 1 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 995 | 5 | 1022 | 7 | 589 | 4 |
| 2011 | 1 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 959 | 8 | 1198 | 10 | 580 | 2 |
| 2014 | 3 | 91 | John Brown, Ariz. | 696 | 5 | 1003 | 7 | 517 | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 64 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 375 | 1 | 954 | 8 | 433 | 4 |
| 2014 | 1 | 4 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 982 | 6 | 1047 | 9 | 430 | 2 |
| 2012 | 2 | supp | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 805 | 5 | 1646 | 9 | 303 | 0 |
| 2012 | 1 | 5 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 865 | 5 | 415 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Table is sorted by Year 3 receiving yards. There's a gray area on some of these, but I count 14 players who clearly broke out in Year 3, and 16 who put up their big, breakout seasons in Year 2. The remaining 16 were great or at least pretty good right from the get-go.
In short, I don't think wideouts who breakout are much more likely to do it in Year 3 than in Year 2. Seems just as likely that 2017 prospects like Corey Davis and Mike Williams will have breakout seasons as 2016 guys like Josh Doctson or Will Fuller. Key to their success will be staying healthy -- not the benefit of having an extra year of training camp or learning the offense or whatnot.
--Andy Richardson