I'm in a couple of different dynasty leagues, but the one I've been in the longest annually holds its rookie draft one week after the NFL Draft. It's a little early -- teams haven't even had rookie minicamps yet -- but that just makes it all the more intriguing. Do we favor predraft rankings, or where guys were actually drafted? Fun to see the initial thoughts on the incoming college prospects.
This is a 12-team PPR league, where tight ends get 1.5 points per reception and we have two flex spots in the lineup (which can be either RB, WR or TE). Mentioning this because TEs go a little earlier than in other rookie drafts. When there are a lot of good prospects, anyway, which there didn't seem to be this year.
In this three-round draft, half (18) of the 36 picks were traded at least once, and six of those were traded two or three times. If you're not in a dynasty league already, I strongly recommend it. Anyway, here's how the draft went down; my picks in bold.
| TOP DOG ROOKIE DRAFT | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pick | Player | |
| 1.01 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | |
| 1.02 | Derrius Guice, Wash. | |
| 1.03 | Sony Michel, N.E. | |
| 1.04 | Nick Chubb, Clev. | |
| 1.05 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | |
No surprises at the top. Barkley and Guice will probably go 1-2 in the vast majority of drafts. Some jostling of positions with the running backs from 2 through 5 or even 6 or 7, with Ronald Jones or Royce Freeman sneaking in. I hear some people not thrilled with Michel's landing spot, because the Patriots favor a committee. I counter this with, yeah, but it's a committee in a really good offense, and New England didn't draft Michel (pictured) in the first round not to use him. I think it will essentially be a Rex Burkhead-Michel committee, with James White getting a few passing downs. Burkhead and Michel can both be very productive. Remember, dynasty league, so the fact that Chubb will probably be stuck behind Carlos Hyde this year isn't a huge deal. Next year, Hyde will be gone.
| Pick | Player | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | D.J. Moore, Car. | ||
| 1.07 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | ||
| 1.08 | Royce Freeman, Den. | ||
| 1.09 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. |
Moore sneaks in as the first wide receiver drafted. He should play early and often in Carolina, which has Devin Funchess (in a contract year) and little else. Then three more running backs. Jones looks and runs like Jamaal Charles, right down to the number. After the draft I hedged a little by swinging a minor trade for Peyton Barber. But realistically, it's Jones' job to take in the preseason. Same story for Freeman in Denver. A lot of clutter ahead of Johnson in Detroit, but one year from now -- if not sooner -- Blount and Abdullah will be gone and Kerryon should pretty much have this backfield to himself.
| Pick | Player | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | ||
| 1.11 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | ||
| 1.12 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | ||
| 2.01 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | ||
| 2.02 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | ||
| 2.03 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | ||
| 2.04 | Sam Darnold NYJ | ||
| 2.05 | Mike Gesicki MIA | ||
| 2.06 | James Washington PIT | ||
| 2.07 | Lamar Jackson BAL |
The lesson here: draft your running backs early, because by the start of the second round there is nothing really exciting at the position to draft. In the space of 10 picks there were seven wide receivers, two quarterbacks and a tight end drafted.
I originally had picks 2.06 and 2.07. When 2.03 came up, there were two players left that I liked for those picks: Kirk, and Gesicki. I thought it very possible that both would go between picks 2.03 and 2.05, and the owner with 2.03 was trying to trade out. So I used both picks to move up (while also getting an early 3rd) and took Kirk, with nothing but Larry Fitzgerald and opportunity ahead of him in Arizona. Gesicki, who is the best guess to be this year's Evan Engram, went quickly thereafter.
I think Mayfield and Darnold should probably be late second-rounders, but sometimes you have to take players a little early or not get them, especially at quarterback. Had I stayed put, I'd probably have taken Lamar Jackson at 2.7 myself. Accuracy very much in question, but he could be a fantasy superstar once he's in the lineup, so worth drafting on upside.
| Pick | Player | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | Kalen Ballage, Mia. | |||
| 2.09 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | |||
| 2.1 | Deon Cain, Ind. | |||
| 2.11 | Nyheim Hines, Ind. | |||
| 2.12 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | |||
| 3.01 | D.J. Chark, Jac. | |||
| 3.02 | Antonio Callaway, Clev. |
Ballage is huge, and there's opportunity in Miami to at least share time with Kenyan Drake. But he doesn't run with the power you'd like to see, and I don't really have a lot of faith in Miami's talent evaluators given the offseason. Pettis and Cain go to depth charts with some uncertainty. I drafted Hines, a Darren Sproles type back, on a story that he could be Frank Reich's Sproles or maybe Danny Woodhead. The next three picks are similar: talented guys but a lot in front of them before they could carve out major roles. Will need injuries to make an impact.
| Pick | Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.03 | Hayden Hurst, Balt. | ||||
| 3.04 | Mark Walton, Cin. | ||||
| 3.05 | Tre'Quan Smith, N.O. | ||||
| 3.06 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | ||||
| 3.07 | J'Mon Moore, G.B. | ||||
| 3.08 | Josh Allen, Buf. | ||||
| 3.09 | DaeSean Hamilton, Den. | ||||
| 3.1 | Keke Coutee, Hou. | ||||
| 3.11 | Equanimeous St. Brown, G.B. | ||||
| 3.12 | Jordan Wilkins, Ind. |
Hurst is a first-round pick, and tight ends drafted there often come into some fantasy value. But he turns 25 this summer, ancient in dynasty, and the Ravens drafted another pass-catching tight end two rounds later in Mark Andrews. But Jason Witten's retirement left me with nothing but Jack Doyle on my roster, so I had to take the plunge. Moore is the first of the three wide receivers the Packers drafted. The rest of the wide receivers drafted in this round are similar: mid-round picks going to either A, uncertain depth charts, or B, working with elite quarterbacks.
Everyone's rookie draft won't go just like this, of course, but this is a snapshot of what 12 different owners thought of the incoming rookies. Now we sit back, hope nobody suffers any significant preseason injuries, and hope we drafted the next Michael Thomas -- not the next Kevin White.