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Factoid

Rookie quarterbacks

Odds stacked against first-year success

There were four quarterbacks selected with top-10 picks in the draft. That’s never happened before. But the odds are stacked against any of those guys making much of an impact this year.

Quarterbacks is a hard position, and it’s unusual for someone to come in and thrive right away.

In the last 10 years, 17 other quarterbacks have been selected with top-10 picks. Only three of those guys put top-12 numbers in their first season. (That’s top-12 per-game numbers, comparing quarterbacks against others starting at least half the season – standard scoring.)

Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck. Those are the three exceptions.

QUARTERBACKS SELECTED WITH TOP-10 PICKS
YearPlayerStPassTDIntRunTDRRk
2008Matt Ryan, Atl.1621516117121st
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10227132011214th
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ1516312207328th
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.1622018154124th
2011Cam Newton, Car.16253211744144th
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.1415412117033rd
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.152132055475th
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16273231816510th
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16206121313228th
2012Jake Locker, Tenn.000000--
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.1320791530027th
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.12235191021316th
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.16253221513617th
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.1623616149227th
2016Jared Goff, L.A.71565721--
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.121837721229th
2017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.128401100--
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.???????
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ???????
2018Josh Allen, Buff.???????
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz.???????

For this year’s group, it’s not even certain any of these four will start on opening day. If the season started today, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen definitely would be backups. The Jets haven't been able to sign Sam Darnold yet, making it harder for him to work his way past Josh McCown.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index