When a rookie running back posts big numbers, can we look back at the preseason and agree that we should have seen it coming? Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott have ripped off big gainers in the preseason the last two years. But other rookies have finished with good numbers after looking pretty ordinary in the preseason.
Saquon Barkley on his first preseason carry busted loose for a long run, and it reminded me of Adrian Peterson back in 2007. It was in a preseason game against the Jets at the Meadowlands that it became very apparent that Peterson was going to be very special (I checked the numbers, and Peterson had a 43-yard run in that game).
At the same time, I remember Carlos Hyde building up a head of steam and tearing up the Ravens in a preseason game, and he didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie.
I saw in the comments section that Yaesha Newman was asking about the relevance of preseason numbers, so I decided to spend a few minutes parsing through some of the historical numbers.
On this one, I looked at all rookie running backs who finished with top 20 numbers (using standard scoring). Then I went back and looked at what they did in the first preseason.
I found 31 backs since the move to 32 teams back in 2002, and I was able to find preseason numbers on all but two of them. For Cadillac Williams, I was able to find his rushing numbers in our old products but not his receiving figures. And I found nothing on 2003 Domanick Davis, but he wasn’t relevant enough to be one of the top 100 running backs we listed going into that season (he began that season as a backup behind Stacey Mack).
Of these standout rookies, 7 averaged over 5 yards per carry in their initial preseason (I’ve got them in bold). But 10 averaged under 4 yards per attempt (tagged with black dots). That includes Doug Martin and Matt Forte, who both finished with top-5 numbers in their first year.
Any grading of rookie runners, of course, is subjective. Eddie Lacy, for example, averaged a pedestrian 2.0 yards per carry in his first preseason, but I remembering him crashing through some tackles against the Rams, looking like another Marshawn Lynch.
In general, the rookie runners this year looked so-so in their debuts, particularly Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. I don’t expect any of those players to be starters on opening day this year. But too early to drawn any definitive conclusions.
| GOOD ROOKIE RUNNERS / PRESEASON NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rnk | Att | Run | Avg | No-Yd | TD |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 2 | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 3 | 30 | 146 | 4.9 | 1-2 | 1 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 3 | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 4-32 | 0 |
| 2012 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | 3 | 27 | 97 | 3.6 | 4-19 | 2 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 4 | 9 | 96 | 10.7 | 1-22 | 1 |
| 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 4 | 48 | 224 | 4.7 | 2-21 | 2 |
| 2008 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 4 | 27 | 94 | 3.5 | 6-41 | 0 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 5 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 5 | 39 | 195 | 5.0 | 1-6 | 1 |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 6 | 34 | 138 | 4.1 | 1-25 | 0 |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 7 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2015 | • David Johnson, Ariz. | 7 | 17 | 64 | 3.8 | 6-55 | 1 |
| 2013 | • Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 7 | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 1-11 | 0 |
| 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 8 | 28 | 130 | 4.6 | 4-72 | 1 |
| 2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 8 | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0-0 | 1 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 9 | 36 | 173 | 4.8 | 3-37 | 1 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 10 | 0 | 0 | -- | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 10 | 41 | 190 | 4.6 | 10-93 | 0 |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 11 | 33 | 182 | 5.5 | 7-82 | 2 |
| 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 11 | 37 | 172 | 4.6 | 1-4 | 0 |
| 2007 | • Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 12 | 22 | 37 | 1.7 | 2-17 | 0 |
| 2006 | • Joseph Addai, Ind. | 12 | 21 | 32 | 1.5 | 3-28 | 1 |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 14 | 19 | 102 | 5.4 | 10-39 | 0 |
| 2003 | Domanick Davis, Hou. | 15 | ? | ? | ? | ?-? | ? |
| 2013 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 3-51 | 1 |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 17 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 17 | 27 | 116 | 4.3 | 7-71 | 3 |
| 2008 | • Kevin Smith, Det. | 18 | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 1--6 | 1 |
| 2013 | • Zac Stacy, St.L. | 18 | 23 | 68 | 3.0 | 4-32 | 1 |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 19 | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | ?-? | 0 |
—Ian Allan