Watching Lamar Jackson firing footballs over people’s heads and taking sacks, it’s apparent he’s not going to be ready to move into the starting lineup this season. He’s just not ready.
There was talk in June and July about bringing him in for special packages – short-yardage situations or formations with two quarterbacks. But that doesn’t seem particularly likely to me. It looks like Joe Flacco is dialed in to have the best season of his career. I don’t think they’d want to mess with that by turning him into a yo-yo quarterback.
Jackson needs work. Lots of it. Maybe they can get him ready to start in 2019 or 2020, but he’s clearly not ready now.
In three preseason games he’s completed only 18 of 43 passes, with 6 sacks.
In the last 10 years, 32 quarterbacks have been chosen with first-round picks. All of them in the preseason of their rookie year completed a higher percentage of passes in these practice games. Only one was sacked more often.
Completion percentage isn’t necessarily everything. Cam Newton completed only 42 percent in his rookie preseason, then went out and threw for over 400 yards in both of his first two games. EJ Manuel, meanwhile, completed 79 percent of his passes in the preseason of his rookie year, and his career never got off the ground.
These are just numbers. Sam Darnold is sitting at 72 percent, but I don’t think he’s going to be a factor as a rookie either. (I think Darnold will play, but I don’t think he’ll play well.)
But for Jackson, to me he looks unprepared to be a starter. I think he’s headed for a redshirt year.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Com | Yards | Pct | TD | Int |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 33 | 26 | 199 | 78.8% | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | • Sam Darnold, NYJ | 29 | 21 | 158 | 72.4% | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 30 | 21 | 326 | 70.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 53 | 36 | 364 | 67.9% | 3 | 0 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 45 | 30 | 326 | 66.7% | 4 | 1 |
| 2011 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 49 | 32 | 316 | 65.3% | 2 | 1 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 37 | 24 | 347 | 64.9% | 3 | 1 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 31 | 20 | 193 | 64.5% | 2 | 0 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 54 | 34 | 390 | 63.0% | 4 | 0 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 51 | 32 | 521 | 62.7% | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 66 | 41 | 522 | 62.1% | 3 | 2 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 49 | 30 | 283 | 61.2% | 5 | 0 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 55 | 33 | 338 | 60.0% | 3 | 0 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 68 | 40 | 458 | 58.8% | 4 | 2 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 59 | 34 | 294 | 57.6% | 2 | 1 |
| 2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 32 | 18 | 176 | 56.3% | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | • Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 29 | 16 | 148 | 55.2% | 1 | 0 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 49 | 27 | 290 | 55.1% | 1 | 0 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 55 | 30 | 389 | 54.5% | 1 | 4 |
| 2018 | • Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 33 | 18 | 287 | 54.5% | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 78 | 41 | 414 | 52.6% | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 67 | 35 | 284 | 52.2% | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 56 | 29 | 397 | 51.8% | 0 | 1 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 59 | 30 | 296 | 50.8% | 2 | 0 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 70 | 35 | 365 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 24 | 12 | 89 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 49 | 24 | 297 | 49.0% | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 47 | 23 | 311 | 48.9% | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 49 | 22 | 238 | 44.9% | 1 | 3 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 49 | 22 | 232 | 44.9% | 2 | 2 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 57 | 24 | 300 | 42.1% | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 43 | 18 | 201 | 41.9% | 2 | 1 |
—Ian Allan