Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Coordinators who will help (or hurt) offenses. Should LeVeon Bell be picked early in a fantasy draft? Drafting college players for 2019. The best draft position. And why Philip Rivers looks like one of the more underrated fantasy quarterbacks.
Question 1
Every year you see an offense do poorly due to a change in coordinator (Atlanta). Or, an average offense is improved due to a coaching change (LA Rams). I would love to know your thoughts on what coaching changes will either improve an offense or hurt an offense.
Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)
I don’t understand why the Jets are going with Jeremy Bates as their offensive coordinator. He was their quarterbacks coach last year, but he was out of football entirely in five of the past six seasons. (I mean, not even in college football – now he’s ready to run an NFL offense? I don’t see it.) Similarly, Norv Turner looks like a disaster waiting to happen. I don’t think his system works anymore. He was out of football last year, and in each of his last four full seasons, his offenses allowed at least 45 sacks. Now he’s taken over in Carolina, where they have all kinds of offensive line problems. That’s not going to work. Brian Schottenheimer has been around for years and years with limited success. Tough to be optimistic about him turning around a Seattle offense that’s headed in the wrong direction. In Arizona, Mike McCoy is fine, but he’s following Bruce Arians (who was one of the best); that’s a downgrade. Pat Shurmur is talking about Eli Manning completing close to 70 percent of his passes, and that’s not going to happen.
On the plus side, Matt LaFleur has been studying the last three years under Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. I think he might pump some life into Tennessee’s offense. Todd Haley could help give Cleveland a kick in the ass; that’s an upgrade. And there are three teams that will now be running systems similar to Kansas City and Philadelphia. I like that – Frank Reich (Colts), John DeFilippo (Vikings) and Matt Nagy (Bears).
Question 2
Which players (non QB) do you expect to be picked towards the end of drafts or not drafted at all this year to potentially be high draft picks next year?
Paul Karrmann (West Chester, PA)
D’Onta Foreman (Achilles) might begin this season on the PUP list, but he’ll probably start at tailback for Houston next year. Derrius Guice (who’s missing this year with a knee injury). Pittsburgh probably won’t re-sign LeVeon Bell, elevating James Conner into a starting role. Rookie running backs like Sony Michel, Rashaad Penny and Ronald Jones probably won’t do much this year but will be moving up. I think the Broncos will be moving on from their two veteran receivers, so perhaps Courtland Sutton and Daesan Hamilton. Rookie receivers like Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley and James Washington will be contributors this year, but they’ll presumably be ready to do a lot more next season.
Question 3
Is there any concern with Bell with most likely getting no work in the preseason? I have the 2nd pick in a 12-team PPR. I know Gurley is going No. 1 and was looking at Elliott. Dallas has no passing game and he should be a workhorse behind a good Oline.
William Stoud (Medford, NJ)
I’m not a fan of selecting Bell. He’ll be showing up in September, so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll be coming out of the gates slowly. In his first three games last year, he averaged under 3.5 yards per carry. And they didn’t really get him going as a pass catcher until the second half of the season. Bell has had more injuries than the other elite running backs. I also noticed in the game last week that James Conner looks like he’s ready to contribute more. I have had multiple opportunities to select Bell in PPR drafts and have passed each time. I had the No. 2 pick in one draft and went with Ezekiel Elliott. In another, I would have taken Alvin Kamara 4th but instead traded down to the 8th slot and chose Kareem Hunt.
Question 4
I play in a two-player keeper league. You can draft college players and (as long as you roster them all year) can carry them over. Are there any college running backs that you think will be worth drafting with an eye on 2019? Last year Barkley, Chubb and Guice were all drafted. Barkley will be carried and Guice probably would have been and the draft isn't for two weeks so we'll see about Chubb. The thing is, you can spend a late-round flyer and possibly get a stud for next year.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Your team can keep only two players. So this strategy only works out if the player would be one of the first 24 selected. So Saquon Barkley paid off. But none of the others did, including Guice (if nobody in your league protected anyone, Guice wouldn’t be one of the first 24 players selected). And note that those who selected Barkley, Guice and Chubb last year paid the price of losing a roster spot for an entire season. So if I were in such a league, I would only consider a college running back if I was pretty sure he would be selected in the first round of the 2019 draft. Bryce Love of Stanford passes that test. Maybe Damien Harris of Alabama in the last round. I am interested in D’Andre Swift of Georgia (I think he’ll be better than Chubb and Michel) but he won’t be eligible for the NFL draft until 2020.
Question 5
Every year you have one or two players ranked much higher than everyone else; Usually you are right. Marvin Jones was last year’s guy. This year you have JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR9 when most mock drafts he is outside the top 15. More importantly you have Rivers and Roethlisberger at QB. Most mock draft have those two outside the top 10 while you have them inside the top 5 or 6. What is your thinking here? Are these two worth it or is the group from 4-10 all about the same?
Jim Backstrom (Henderson, NV)
Those are older guys, but they can still play. Both know what they’re doing, and both have really good weapons around them. In Pittsburgh, they have the best one-two punch of wide receivers in the league (and they might have a decent No. 3 if James Washington can build on what he did in Green Bay last week). In San Diego, they might have the best four-pack of wide receivers in the league, with Allen, Benjamin and the two Williams. I would be very comfortable with those quarterbacks. In drafts, I expect you’ll see Rodgers, Wilson, Brady and Watson picked pretty earlier. I think they’ll be chosen before I move on the position. Then I am interested in picking up a pair of guys who can do get the job done. In many of my own drafts, Rivers has ended up on my roster. With Roethlisberger, he says they’re going to be more aggressive offensively this year, using more no-huddle. I have downgraded him slightly because he tends to miss a few games with injuries almost every year.
Question 6
Most analysts are adamant that the RB position is critical to fantasy rosters. Knowing how my league drafts (16 team PPR) I’m tempted to go zero RB and snag one of the more undervalued (in comparison to ESPN Rankings) backs like Alex Collins or Carlos Hyde or Isaiah Crowell. I’ve done this before in the year Danny Woodhead was a top-10 back, but I’m wondering if it can work again.
J.T. Stewart (Waynesboro, VA)
It’s my opinion that pass-catching running backs tend to be undervalued in PPR scoring. Too many owners don’t put in the work and don’t realize the value of third-down backs who come in and catch 60-plus passes. Guys like James White, Chris Thompson, Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson and Tarik Cohen will be undervalued. In the last five years, I see 16 running backs who have finished with top-20 numbers by doing not on the ground but through the air. (On the list here, I’m showing the 16 running backs who caught 50-plus passes but finished with fewer than 800 rushing yards).
| PASS-CATCHING PPR BACKS (last 5 years) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | Total | TD | Points | Rnk |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 826 | 728 | 1,554 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 80 | 755 | 336 | 1,091 | 9 | 243.1 | 3 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 80 | 651 | 435 | 1,086 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
| 2013 | Danny Woodhead, N.E. | 76 | 605 | 429 | 1,034 | 8 | 227.4 | 12 |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 56 | 514 | 695 | 1,209 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
| 2013 | Joique Bell, Det. | 53 | 547 | 650 | 1,197 | 8 | 222.7 | 14 |
| 2017 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 74 | 693 | 348 | 1,041 | 7 | 220.1 | 11 |
| 2012 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 75 | 667 | 244 | 911 | 8 | 216.1 | 13 |
| 2013 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 77 | 513 | 549 | 1,062 | 5 | 213.2 | 16 |
| 2015 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 50 | 405 | 769 | 1,174 | 6 | 205.4 | 12 |
| 2016 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 58 | 388 | 722 | 1,110 | 5 | 199.0 | 17 |
| 2014 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 66 | 501 | 525 | 1,026 | 3 | 188.6 | 16 |
| 2015 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 51 | 561 | 529 | 1,090 | 4 | 184.0 | 16 |
| 2017 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 51 | 421 | 570 | 991 | 5 | 182.1 | 17 |
| 2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 80 | 697 | 133 | 830 | 3 | 181.0 | 19 |
| 2014 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 52 | 447 | 391 | 838 | 5 | 165.8 | 20 |
Question 7
Do you see any sign of Brady's decline? I recall Peyton Manning's decline starting towards the end of his second-to-last season.
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
I remember Peyton Manning losing Monday night games at Atlanta and Cincinnati in 2012 and 2014, where it looked like he couldn’t play anymore. He couldn’t move at all, and he had a noodle arm. He couldn’t make the throws. Manning gimped through 2015 (getting benched at one point) before finally calling it a career. Tom Brady is 41, but I haven’t seen one of those kind of games yet. To me, he seems to be pretty much the same guy he was when he was 33. I watched his Tom vs. Time documentary (which I recommend) on Facebook, and he works very hard at it, with a full-time trainer and carefully planned diet. I think Brady has another good year left in him. At 39, Drew Brees is in the same kind of situation. They haven’t used him in either of their preseason games, so I haven’t had the opportunity to confirm that his arm is still fine, but I didn’t detect any issues last year.
Question 8
Kicker for Minnesota Vikings? Forbath or Carlson?
Larry Noveshen (San Ramon, CA)
They have released Forbath. The intention is that it’s going to be Daniel Carlson. Assuming he doesn’t come out in September and start spraying kicks all over the place, he should be a top-10 scorer at that position – it’s a good team. But Carlson wasn’t super accurate at Auburn, converting only 82 percent of his field goals in his last three years. A last-round pick, I think.
Question 9
With the recent issues with the Cowboy OL how much does that impact Elliot's draft position, considering some of your scoring systems have him at #2 overall? When you pick that high you would like to make that selection without any other influences. Sounds like the OT should be back in time, but the C sounds like he can be out an extended period of time. Plus losing Witten has to hurt in the running game.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I think it’s reasonable to reduce expectations for Elliott. Maybe even move him down a spot or two. Travis Frederick might be the best center in the league. He’s out indefinitely with the auto-immune disorder. Zach Martin might be the best guard in the league, and he has a knee injury that might affect his availability or effectiveness early in the year. La’el Collins is a guy they’d like to emerge, and he’s also hurt. I don’t consider Witten to be a factor; I don’t think he was ever a force as a blocker. Elliott is a great back (or at least a very good one) but part of the appeal was the overpowering line that was operating in front of him. It doesn’t look as good today.
Question 10
We select coaches, and unless you get one of the top 2 or 3, you usually end up going through many throughout the year just trying to hit soft pockets in scheduling throughout the season. With that being said, unless I get one of those top 2 or 3, my coaching target on draft night is simply someone who starts off with an easy schedule. What teams should be able to rack up some "W"s with a pretty soft opening to their schedule?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
Let’s do this. Assign a win-loss total to each team, reflecting its overall strength. (If it’s a middle-of-the-pack squad, call them 8-8.) Then plug those numbers in the 2018 schedule and look at what the totals are for the first five weeks. According to my numbers, the Baltimore Ravens look like the team to target. They’ve impressed me anyway, but they’re also going to benefit from playing an easy schedule early. If I were in your league, I would have a little asterisk next to John Harbaugh on my coach list.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (first 5 weeks) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Baltimore | 32 | 46 | 2 | .413 |
| NY Jets | 33 | 46 | 1 | .419 |
| Chicago | 28 | 36 | 0 | .438 |
| Denver | 35 | 44 | 1 | .444 |
| Seattle | 36 | 44 | 0 | .450 |
| Green Bay | 36 | 44 | 0 | .450 |
| New Orleans | 35 | 43 | 2 | .450 |
| Oakland | 36 | 43 | 1 | .456 |
| Washington | 29 | 34 | 1 | .461 |
| New England | 37 | 42 | 1 | .469 |
| LA Rams | 37 | 42 | 1 | .469 |
| Dallas | 37 | 41 | 2 | .475 |
| LA Chargers | 38 | 40 | 2 | .488 |
| Cincinnati | 38 | 40 | 2 | .488 |
| Pittsburgh | 39 | 40 | 1 | .494 |
| Cleveland | 39 | 40 | 1 | .494 |
| Miami | 38 | 39 | 3 | .494 |
| Tennessee | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
| San Francisco | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
| Arizona | 40 | 39 | 1 | .506 |
| Jacksonville | 40 | 38 | 2 | .513 |
| Carolina | 32 | 30 | 2 | .516 |
| Houston | 40 | 37 | 3 | .519 |
| Philadelphia | 41 | 37 | 2 | .525 |
| Detroit | 43 | 36 | 1 | .544 |
| Kansas City | 44 | 35 | 1 | .556 |
| NY Giants | 45 | 34 | 1 | .569 |
| Minnesota | 45 | 34 | 1 | .569 |
| Tampa Bay | 37 | 27 | 0 | .578 |
| Atlanta | 46 | 32 | 2 | .588 |
| Indianapolis | 48 | 31 | 1 | .606 |
| Buffalo | 48 | 31 | 1 | .606 |
Question 11
Can you go into further detail on your ranking for Alex Collins as RB 15 in PPR? From the 8/16 rankings, "Alex Collins will be the main runner, but Javorius Allen will also be involved. When the first-team offense is in obvious passing situations in the exhibition, Allen came onto the field. Collins got more opportunities in the passing game in the second half of last season (all 23 of his receptions came in the final nine games), but Allen should get most of those chances. Allen will also play some near the goal line, with Collins occasionally struggling with fumbles (4 last season).”
Darrell Sooy (West Chester, PA)
I like the look of the Ravens. I think they’re on the upswing. Their offense will be better – the line will be better, and Joe Flacco looks vastly improved. I think they’re right there with the Steelers in the AFC North. (In that division, I see Pittsburgh as the one team that will be worse, and I think all three of the other teams will be better). Collins is definitely their No. 1 back, and I think he’ll be a good player. I think he’s explosive. But we’re not talking about a Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon type guy where he’s pretty much getting all of the touches. They will also use Javorius Allen. To me, Allen looks like a pro who’s been working on his game and will have a role. Allen can play on some third downs (might be better than Collins in those situations), as a change of pace, and even as some fullback. They had the deal last year where they would line up Allen as a fullback in short-yardage situations. They would fake the pitch to Collins, then give it to Allen on a fullback dive, and that was a good changeup pitch. Allen was successful on 12 of 15 plays when they needed to run for 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive. So I don’t see Collins as a back who’ll be scoring 80-plus percent of his team’s rushing touchdowns. They’ve also got Kenneth Dixon, and he might get a few carries as a third back (but more realistically, I think Dixon waits in the wings, then gets a meaningful role if either Collins or Allen gets hurt). When I put pencil to paper and project it out, Collins grades out as a top-15 type running back.
Question 12
Previously you advised I go for the superstar and not a couple of solid but unspectacular rookies in my 12-team PPR auction keeper league. Solid advice. Now I have had circumstances change. I believe I can get still get Barkley but it will mean a below-average TE (think Seals-Jones, Watson, McDonald). Or I can save some money and go with a different rookie RB like K.Johnson, Freeman or whomever else I like best before our auction, and probably have enough cap for a better TE, think Olsen, Doyle, Burton, Hooper type.
Pat Smith (Mitchell, SD)
In fantasy leagues, tight ends are like quarterbacks and kickers. Teams are starting only one of them, so it’s easier to potentially patch that position. In most years (I think) there will be a top-10 tight end who isn’t even drafted. In the last four years, I think there have been six tight ends who weren’t drafted in at least 95 percent of leagues who finished with top-15 standard numbers, with Gary Barnidge leading the way.
| UNHERALDED TIGHT ENDS (last four years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Rnk |
| 2014 | Larry Donnell, NYG | 63 | 623 | 9.9 | 6 | 11 |
| 2015 | Gary Barnidge, Clev. | 79 | 1043 | 13.2 | 9 | 3 |
| 2016 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 86 | 729 | 8.5 | 2 | 15 |
| 2016 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 57 | 660 | 11.6 | 8 | 6 |
| 2017 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 42 | 404 | 9.6 | 7 | 12 |
| 2017 | Jack Doyle, Ind. | 80 | 690 | 8.6 | 4 | 9 |
So I think the play here for you is to get Saquon Barkley, who will be great, and then figure out the tight end problem. I think Austin Hooper is taking a step forward this year, and I don’t know that there’s much of a market for him. I just got him for $1.00 in a 12-team auction. Previously I got him with the last pick of a draft in which 240 players were chosen. Hayden Hurst is another guy I like a lot, and I’m not sure if people are onto him yet. If Gronkowski gets hurt, then Jacob Hollister (who’s definitely not being chosen in any league) might turn into a top-10 tight end.
Question 13
Great in-depth material! I am wondering what your thoughts are in terms of the best draft position to be in for a 12-team PPR draft? I have position 1 but I believe I might be better served to trade it for position 6 or 7 instead of waiting for the 24th pick.
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
No, no, no. Pick #1 is where you want to be. You’ll take Todd Gurley with the first pick, and there will be a couple of good choices there for you at 2.12 and 3.01. I look into this issue a few times every year, with various league sizes and scoring systems. Using my stat projections, it almost always works out that the team with the first pick has an advantage. And the teams with the early picks always grade out higher than those later on. For PPR scoring, my numbers suggest you should have a 50-point edge after four rounds (if everybody drafts the players they’re supposed to).
| BEST DRAFT POSITION (PPR) | |
|---|---|
| Slot | Pts |
| Pick #1 | 87 |
| Pick #2 | 39 |
| Pick #3 | 30 |
| Pick #5 | 28 |
| Pick #6 | 24 |
| Pick #4 | 22 |
| Pick #7 | 14 |
| Pick #8 | 13 |
| Pick #9 | 8 |
| Pick #10 | 7 |
| Pick #11 | 3 |
| Pick #12 | 0 |
Question 14
I'm curious why you're still so cool on Wentz. All indications seem to be pointing to him playing week 2, if not week 1. You have him projected for 12 starts and Roethlisberger projected for 15 starts; I'd be happy to bet that Wentz starts more games than Roethlisberger. You've been moving up the other 2 young star QBs coming back from injury (Luck and Watson) but in the last cheat sheet Wentz is actually down a spot from where you had him in the magazine. Personally I feel Wentz is much more likely to immediately be closer to his "old self" than those other 2.
Shane Dirks (Denver, CO)
Wentz averaged 254 passing yards in the 13 games he started last year, with 33 touchdowns. If you’re confident he’s healthy and will put up the same kind of numbers, he should be one of the first few quarterbacks you would select. I’m not there yet. I’m not certain he’ll be in the lineup in Week 2, and I’m not confident he’ll be playing at the same level when he initially returns.
Question 15
I was wondering about your preference for Kamara over D. Johnson in full PPR. They're both going to be heavily involved in the passing game, but I feel like Johnson could approach 350-400 touches again. Do you think the offense Kamara plays in outweighs the likely 100 less touches he'll receive?
Garrett Seymour (Fitchburg, WI)
I love what they do with Kamara out of the backfield. Conservatively, he’ll catch 80 passes. David Johnson was doing the same kind of things as a receiver two years ago, but they’ve got a new coach and new offense now. Bruce Arians was one of the best at challenging defenses and making running backs look good. They might not be quite the same this year. Johnson is a young, talented dude, but he’s trying to work behind a bottom-5 offensive line.
Question 16
Could you please throw out a handful of names of $1 players to be had at the end of an auction that have a legitimate chance at being a quality starter?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
With running backs, I like the handcuff guys (who are just an injury away from being valuable guys). James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Damien Williams, Rod Smith and (probably) John Kelly. At quarterback, maybe Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. At wide receiver, the best you might be able to do would be Cordarrelle Patterson, John Brown, Ryan Grant, Geronimo Allison, Chris Godwin, Taywan Taylor, Christian Kirk and Jaron Brown. New England’s defense (with six games against the other teams in the AFC East). I’m not promising all of these options are going for $1 or even $2. But they might.
Question 17
I'm a long-time subscriber. Very long time. I'm writing, as I'm curious about your prediction (in the most recent update) for the Saints back up QB position. You pretty much write off Tom Savage and Taysom Smith in favor of the Saints just keeping Luke McCown as their #2. Considering Luke was cut prior to the 2017 season in favor of then back up Chase Daniel, I'm now questioning the validity and efforts that go in to your updates. Help me off the fence with this one.
CHRIS RONQUILLO (Willis, TX)
Fair point. That’s crappy, and an explanation is in order. I was watching New Orleans in the preseason (and when watching these games, I’m not focusing as closely when the backup guys are on the field – I’m concerned more with the fantasy relevant guys). I didn’t feel that either Taysom Hill or Tom Savage would be their backup. Definitely not Savage. Hill has completed 79 percent of his passes, but everything has been short and he’s a grab bagger who runs around – a 28-year-old previous released by Green Bay. Either written somewhere or spoken during the broadcast, I thought I heard that an option was to go with Luke McCown. I might be mistaken, because I can’t even remember where that came from. But I wrote it down, and it looks pretty stupid because McCown isn’t even on a roster. He retired in April. Apologies.
Question 18
Is there a way that you can adjust the custom rankings to account for different groups of starters. Example. I have a league that will start 1qb, 2rbs, 3wrs, 1te, and 1 flex in a ppr league. I know that this makes wrs more important and TE and QB less important in a 10-team league. But the overall rankings are difficult to figure out. How do you see the overall rankings change for this type of league for RBs, QBs and TEs?
Mike Munson (Tracy, MN)
Good question, and one that has been asked by many others. First, decide how many player at each position will be drafted. If you have been in the same league for a few years, so you can look at previous years. You may see that you’re tending to get about 45 running backs and 65 wide receivers each year, or whatever. That’s one way to do it. The other way is to rely solely on your own research. Decide how many total running backs and wide receivers will be selected (perhaps it’s 110) and then look at our projected production for those players and see who comes out on top. Perhaps using our numbers, it says that 70 wide receivers and only 40 running backs will be selected. Either way is fine, but decide on some total numbers. Then, go into the custom rankings area. There’s an area to adjust auction values. Go in there and plug in the expected roster totals for each position. Whatever totals you plug in for QB, RB and WR, I would start by assuming that 70 percent of the players will go for more than the $1.00 minimum (bid in an auction). That is, if you have 30 quarterbacks being selected, then 21 go for more than minimum. If you have 40 running backs, then 28 go for more than minimum (28 is 70% of 40). And if you 70 wide receivers, then 49 go for more than min. At tight ends, go with about 65%, and just a handful of players each at kicker and defense. Plug in those numbers, then look at the overall list and see if it fits with what you’re expecting. I would think it will be pretty close. If a position looks overvalued, then you go back and adjust those supply-demand numbers. If there are too many quarterbacks in your top 30, for example, then go back and change it from 21 of 30 to 18 of 30.
Question 19
We have the 2nd pick in a PPR league. ADP keeps changing. I see now that it is possible to draft Mike Evens in the second round. I am also looking at Kenyan Drake and Alex Collins. Who do you think has more upside at that pick.
John Orduno (Lake Havasu City, AZ)
I have Evans and Drake going in the middle of the second round (in a 12-team PPR). So adjusting for the reality that everyone’s working with different draft boards, those would be worst-case scenarios for second-round picks. I would hope that somebody in my top 15 would still be available. With Evans, I worry about the depth they have their in Tampa Bay. It’s probably the last-place team in the NFC South, the quarterback is gone until at least Week 4. The left tackle might miss the first few games. And they have a lot of other pass-catching options. DeSean Jackson looks like he’s healthy and in good shape. Chris Godwin is a backup who needs to play a lot more. Adam Humphries might be an above-average slot receiver. And they’ve got a pair of good tight ends. With all of those other weapons, it will be tough for Evans to dominate the touches like he has in the past. I’ve got Drake slotted just behind Evans. He’s fighting the uphill battle on a lesser team in Florida.
Question 20
I'm in a 9-team half-ppr league and I have the choice of keeping Russell Wilson in the 7th round or Tevin Coleman in the 9th. Who should I keep?
Michael Berman (North Potomac, MD)
I would go with Wilson. I don’t have the exact scoring rules in front of me, but I would guess that Wilson is the No. 2 quarterback on the board. Remember, he’s not only passing but also contributing as a runner. Coleman is more of just a top-30 running back.
Question 21
I just traded Collins and Ajayi for Wilson and Carson in Seattle. Only because I will have David Johnson and Cook, not to mention Mack, I feel I gave up a lot. Would you have pulled this trigger? And what can i expect from Mack, to listen to Irsay, they expect him to get 1500 yards. I am really hoping Mack turn out. Carson could work out, but now I must get Penny as a handcuff.
Cal Hoskison (Houston, TX)
You’ll be better at quarterback. Knock on wood, Wilson should put up top-5 numbers. And I think Carson is for real. It’s possible he’ll be just as good as either Collins or Ajayi. A report went by on Thursday suggesting Mack (hamstring) might not be ready for Week 1. With that in mind, it could make sense to add Jordan Wilkins to the tail end of your roster. I have seen Christine Michael the last few weeks. I don’t think he’ll make the team. They drafted Nyheim Hines, but he’s awfully small and doesn’t look like he’s going to be anything more than a bit player for now. In each of the first two games, Hines has fumbled and also been saved by the whistle on a second fumble – that’s 4ish fumbles in two weeks. Wilkins is built more like Mack.
Question 22
Our league is on the small side (10 teams) and we have an auction, not a snake draft, and we also have a super-flex, so having two solid QBs (if not three) is essential to being competitive. Also, because the room tends to pay big for the top 50ish players, with comparatively little left for the rest of the team, I have to overpay to get a couple studs, and frankly if I don't, I'll have $$ left over. I don't mind doing that, because I am patient enough with the rest of my $$ and use FFI's rankings and every year I build a good team from guys you value way more than the general market. What I want to know, really, is what QB, WR and RB would be your last purchase/flier for each position group? That is, who are the ultimate high ceiling (if things break right) but low floor, risk/reward plays at each position? I am confident I'll have 2 good QBs and 4 good WRs/RBs - I want a true potential difference maker for my last purchase at each position, not a higher floor but low ceiling 5th stringer.
L.B. GRAHAM (Ballwin, MO)
I hit on some late-round running backs and wide receivers in a different letter (see the one submitted by Costello). For quarterbacks in your league, I would want to carry at least three good ones, and I wouldn’t be opposed to having four. You can trade them later if you want. You’ll want to get two good quarterbacks, and then I’m guessing you might be able to purchase guys like Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco for far less than their worth. Seriously. I believe Dalton and Flacco very easily could finish this season with top-20 numbers (making them players who should be starting every week in your league).
Question 23
I hate to waste your time with an obvious question, but I tend to overthink things and always appreciate confirmation. I drafted Josh Gordon (an hour before they announced he was returning), and he drafted Tyreek Hill. He’s offered me Hill and Jacksonville’s defense for Gordon. No brainer, right?
SCOTT BRADY (Collegeville, PA)
Agreed. Even if you see aside the Jacksonville defense and set aside the possibility that Gordon has some kind of setback, resulting in a career-ending suspension, I would take Hill. I think he’s going to be the clear No. 1 wide receiver in Kansas City – much, much better than Sammy Watkins. I saw Hill just briefly in the preseason game at Atlanta, but it looks like he’s more confident and knowledgeable. Recall that this is a third-year player who entered the league with a very limited background playing the position. He’s still ascending. There definitely will be multiple weeks that he catches touchdowns over 50 yards.
Question 24
I’m in a league where players get 3 points only after ever 5 receptions. So it’s not really a true 1.0 or .5 PPR league. I’m drafting 9th out of 12 and probably have a decent shot at Hunt, Fournette or Cook. Out of those RBs which one would be the better one in that system?
Steve Campagna (Miami, FL)
I would select Hunt. For custom scoring, probably best to just go off standard scoring (ignoring the PPR component). That will give you a number for each player, then you can perhaps assume Hunt will have about 2-3 games where he catches 5-plus passes to trigger the 3-point bonus. And probably about 2 games for Cook. For Fournette, I don’t think he’ll catch 5 passes in any games.
Question 25
10-team league and we draft 14 besides K & Def. I like to play RB for flex so plan to draft 7 RB and 5 WR. For my last one or two RB’s I would like to gamble on someone with big upside if things fall right for them.
Randy Newland (Villa Hills, KY)
Probably a handcuff guy. James Conner, Austin Ekeler, Damien Williams, Rod Smith are the first four I’ve been going to. I suppose Jeremy Hill is another that can be thought about in the later rounds. That’s a pretty wide-open situation, and he could wind up being the goal-line back on the team that leads the league in rushing touchdowns.