Running backs like Jonathan Stewart, Ronald Jones and Joe Mixon looked pretty putrid in the preseason. Is that an indication that we should stay away from them in fantasy drafts?
The Bucs used an early second-round pick on Jones with the intention he would be their starting running back. That isn’t happening any time soon. He struggled mightily in the preseason, with his 28 carries resulting in a grand total of 22 yards. Bucs will be starting Peyton Barber on opening day, and I don’t think Jones will even be their backup at the start of the season.
The selection of Jones is ironic because last year, recall, the Bucs used a fifth-round choice on Jeremy McNichols. When he averaged only 3.3 yards per attempt in the preseason, they cut him. McNichols landed in San Francisco and is still trying to work his way into the league. I saw him show good power on a touchdown run in August – some chance he has a better career than Ronald Jones.
Stewart appears to be done. His 10 carries in the preseason resulted in minus-5 yards, which hardly seems possible. To me, Wayne Gallman looks like a much better back, and I think they’ll go with the younger guy as their backup tailback.
Mixon is supposed to be headed for a breakout-type season, and he scored on a pretty sick catch-and-run against the Bears, with maybe the best move I saw by any back in the preseason. But as a runner, he pretty much went nowhere every time they gave him the ball. He gained 24 yards on 13 carries. The offensive line might not be good enough, or maybe Mixon isn’t timing the runs right.
Finally, the Colts selected Nyheim Hines in the fourth round, thinking he might add a weapon to their backfield. Doesn’t look likely. He was buried on the depth chart all of August and was ineffective with his limited opportunities, carried 13 times for 19 yards. They say they’ll use him on kickoff returns, but Hines fumbled 3 times in the preseason, and was saved by the whistle on two others.
Best I can say on behalf of these backs is that others before them have been able to overcome. In the previous 5 years, 41 running backs have carried the ball at least 10 times in the preseason and averaged under 2 yards per carry. Nine of those backs went on to finish with top-40 numbers (using standard scoring), and four even put up top-10 numbers.
Nine out of 41 might not seem like much of a success rate, but if you skim through the names, I don’t see any backs in there that anybody was selecting in fantasy drafts with the hopes of getting top-40 numbers. In this current group, there’s only one running back being selected in the top 40 (Mixon) and I’m not throwing in the towel on him just yet.
| BACKS AVERAGING UNDER 2 YARDS PER CARRY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Rnk |
| 2018 | Jonathan Stewart, NYG | 10 | -5 | -.50 | 0 | -- |
| 2016 | Cedric Peerman, CIN | 14 | 7 | .50 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Ronnie Hillman, DAL | 12 | 8 | .67 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | Ronald Jones, TB | 28 | 22 | .79 | 1 | -- |
| 2016 | Josh Ferguson, IND | 19 | 15 | .79 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | Storm Johnson, JAC | 20 | 18 | .90 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | Mark Walton, CIN | 22 | 21 | .95 | 1 | -- |
| 2014 | • Matt Forte, CHI | 10 | 10 | 1.00 | 0 | 4th |
| 2012 | Aaron Brown, CIN | 14 | 14 | 1.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2016 | • Rashad Jennings, NYG | 14 | 16 | 1.14 | 1 | 34th |
| 2015 | Michael Ford, ATL | 17 | 20 | 1.18 | 2 | -- |
| 2015 | • Charles Sims, TB | 13 | 16 | 1.23 | 0 | 21st |
| 2015 | • James Starks, GB | 13 | 16 | 1.23 | 1 | 23rd |
| 2013 | • Reggie Bush, DET | 17 | 21 | 1.24 | 0 | 10th |
| 2015 | Timothy Flanders, CLE | 19 | 25 | 1.32 | 0 | -- |
| 2016 | Brandon Ross, GB | 25 | 36 | 1.44 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | Nyheim Hines, IND | 13 | 19 | 1.46 | 0 | -- |
| 2013 | Brandon Jackson, CLE | 28 | 43 | 1.54 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Andre Williams, LAC | 33 | 51 | 1.55 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | Jerick McKinnon, MIN | 25 | 40 | 1.60 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | Cameron Stingily, PIT | 11 | 18 | 1.64 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | Jawon Chisholm, PIT | 21 | 35 | 1.67 | 0 | -- |
| 2012 | Dan Herron, CIN | 25 | 42 | 1.68 | 0 | -- |
| 2014 | Jonathan Dwyer, ARI | 14 | 24 | 1.71 | 1 | -- |
| 2012 | Anthony Allen, BAL | 11 | 19 | 1.73 | 0 | -- |
| 2016 | Damien Williams, MIA | 20 | 35 | 1.75 | 2 | -- |
| 2018 | Sherman Badie, ARI | 29 | 51 | 1.76 | 0 | -- |
| 2013 | Michael Cox, NYG | 18 | 32 | 1.78 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Romar Morris, NYJ | 20 | 36 | 1.80 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Tim Hightower, SF | 11 | 20 | 1.82 | 1 | -- |
| 2015 | Ricky Seale, BUF | 19 | 35 | 1.84 | 1 | -- |
| 2018 | Joe Mixon, CIN | 13 | 24 | 1.85 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | James Butler, OAK | 14 | 26 | 1.86 | 0 | -- |
| 2012 | Tristan Davis, WAS | 17 | 32 | 1.88 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Donnel Pumphrey, PHI | 26 | 49 | 1.88 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | George Winn, DET | 28 | 53 | 1.89 | 0 | -- |
| 2014 | Antone Smith, ATL | 19 | 36 | 1.89 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | • Giovani Bernard, CIN | 10 | 19 | 1.90 | 0 | 22nd |
| 2014 | Chris Thompson, WAS | 12 | 23 | 1.92 | 0 | -- |
| 2013 | • Jamaal Charles, KC | 12 | 23 | 1.92 | 1 | 1st |
| 2016 | Khiry Robinson, NYJ | 13 | 25 | 1.92 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | Robert Hughes, ARI | 13 | 25 | 1.92 | 0 | -- |
| 2014 | Stepfan Taylor, ARI | 22 | 43 | 1.95 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | Akeem Judd, GB | 11 | 22 | 2.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2018 | Kobe McCrary, MIN | 10 | 20 | 2.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2017 | Damien Williams, MIA | 14 | 28 | 2.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2015 | George Atkinson, OAK | 11 | 22 | 2.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2014 | Derrick Strozier, NO | 11 | 22 | 2.00 | 0 | -- |
| 2013 | • Eddie Lacy, GB | 18 | 36 | 2.00 | 0 | 7th |
| 2013 | • Chris Ivory, NYJ | 14 | 28 | 2.00 | 0 | 38th |
—Ian Allan