Picking through some of the numbers, I see that teams are having more success not only with the pass. Success rates are also up in short-yardage and goal-line rushing situations.
League-wide, teams have been successful on 70 percent of plays when they’ve needed to run for 1-2 yards to either score or keep a drive alive on third or fourth down.
Matt Patricia hasn’t knocked it out of the park thus far as a first-year coach. But one of his goals was to make Detroit a more physical, better running team, and he’s had some success in that regard. The Lions last year were the worst short-yardage rushing team in the league, the only team converting under 50 percent of such plays (12 of 25). This year they’re tied for first, one of only two teams that have been successful on all of their short-yardage plays. (Both Seattle and Detroit are 7 for 7 thus far).
As a disclaimer, I wasn’t a believer in LeGarrette Blount. He was not effective in short-yardage rushing situations for the Eagles last year. But he’s a perfect 5 for 5 so far. So while Kerryon Johnson is playing well, I expect the Lions will continue to look to Blount when the ball is on the 1-yard line.
Speaking of the Eagles, they’ve had their struggles this year. They’re not firing on all cylinders. But they’re 15 of 17 in short-yardage rushing. I notice that Wendell Smallwood is 4 for 4. I don’t think he’s big enough that they’ll lock in on him as their designated short-yardage guy, but I wouldn’t underestimate him. Barring a big trade for somebody like LeSean McCoy or LeVeon Bell, I think Smallwood will be the best back on that team.
Thus far two teams have converted fewer than half of their short-yardage running plays: Texans and Falcons.
| SHORT-YARDAGE RUSHING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| Detroit | 7 | 7 | 100% |
| Seattle | 7 | 7 | 100% |
| Philadelphia | 15 | 17 | 88% |
| Indianapolis | 6 | 7 | 86% |
| Jacksonville | 8 | 10 | 80% |
| Minnesota | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 10 | 80% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| NY Jets | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| Chicago | 10 | 13 | 77% |
| Tennessee | 10 | 13 | 77% |
| Washington | 10 | 13 | 77% |
| Baltimore | 15 | 20 | 75% |
| Denver | 9 | 12 | 75% |
| Green Bay | 3 | 4 | 75% |
| Buffalo | 7 | 10 | 70% |
| Kansas City | 7 | 10 | 70% |
| NY Giants | 7 | 10 | 70% |
| Dallas | 11 | 16 | 69% |
| New Orleans | 15 | 22 | 68% |
| Arizona | 6 | 9 | 67% |
| LA Rams | 12 | 18 | 67% |
| Tampa Bay | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Oakland | 7 | 11 | 64% |
| Carolina | 5 | 8 | 63% |
| Cleveland | 10 | 17 | 59% |
| San Francisco | 10 | 17 | 59% |
| LA Chargers | 7 | 13 | 54% |
| Miami | 2 | 4 | 50% |
| New England | 7 | 14 | 50% |
| Atlanta | 5 | 11 | 45% |
| Houston | 4 | 9 | 44% |
Thus far 36 players have had at least 4 short-yardage carries. Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott have had the most, which is what you would expect.
Of this group, only two backs have been successful on fewer than half of their carries, and they’re both worth a mention. Sony Michel has gone only 4 of 10. I expect the Patriots will continue to work with him and trying to help him get better. I don’t think they have much choice (I don’t think they’ll be holding auditions for a short-yardage specialist to potentially sign.)
And Alex Collins has gone only 1 of 4 for Baltimore. The Ravens have gotten better production in those situations out of Joe Flacco (6 for 6) and Javorius Allen (4 of 6). Collins is a nice player, but I don’t expect him to run for many 1-yard touchdowns.
Two other players have been successful on exactly half of their short-yardage carries: Alfred Morris (5 of 10) and Tevin Coleman (2 of 4).
| PLAYERS WITH 4-PLUS ATTEMPTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| T.Gurley, LAR | 8 | 13 | 62% |
| E.Elliott, DAL | 7 | 12 | 58% |
| A.Kamara, NO | 7 | 11 | 64% |
| C.Hyde, CLE | 6 | 11 | 55% |
| A.Morris, SF | 5 | 10 | 50% |
| S.Michel, NE | 4 | 10 | 40% |
| J.Conner, PIT | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| J.Howard, CHI | 5 | 8 | 63% |
| M.Lynch, OAK | 5 | 8 | 63% |
| R.Freeman, DEN | 4 | 7 | 57% |
| S.Barkley, NYG | 4 | 7 | 57% |
| J.Flacco, BAL | 6 | 6 | 100% |
| M.Gordon, LAC | 5 | 6 | 83% |
| D.Johnson, ARI | 4 | 6 | 67% |
| J.Allen, BAL | 4 | 6 | 67% |
| K.Hunt, KC | 4 | 6 | 67% |
| L.Blount, DET | 5 | 5 | 100% |
| M.Mariota, TEN | 5 | 5 | 100% |
| A.Peterson, WAS | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| C.Ivory, BUF | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| J.Ajayi, PHI | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| T.Hill, NO | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| A.Blue, HOU | 3 | 5 | 60% |
| J.Mixon, CIN | 3 | 5 | 60% |
| T.Yeldon, JAX | 3 | 5 | 60% |
| A.Smith, WAS | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| B.Bortles, JAX | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| D.Prescott, DAL | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| G.Bernard, CIN | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| S.Darnold, NYJ | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| W.Smallwood, PHI | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| C.Newton, CAR | 3 | 4 | 75% |
| Du.Johnson, CLE | 3 | 4 | 75% |
| Jo.Allen, BUF | 3 | 4 | 75% |
| T.Coleman, ATL | 2 | 4 | 50% |
| A.Collins, BAL | 1 | 4 | 25% |
—Ian Allan