I’m not super crazy about it, but I’m starting Kenny Stills rather than Corey Davis in a fantasy playoff game. It’s a TD-only format, and I believe Stills has a much better chance of getting in the end zone.
Davis, I think, will be covered by Jalen Ramsey for the bulk of the Thursday night game, and I want no part of that. Ramsey is on top of his game right now.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, might have some sneaky value on Sunday. They’re 4-1 in their last five games against the Patriots in Miami, and with the way these teams play, I think they’re touchdowns will come through the air.
I would argue, in fact, that Miami is the team this week most likely to score all of its touchdowns on pass plays.
The Dolphins have scored 21 of their 25 touchdowns on passes this year. That’s how they score. And they were the same last year, with 24 of their 28 touchdowns comes on passes. That’s how Adam Gase runs that offense.
Of the last two years, the Dolphins have had the most pass-heavy scoring offense.
| RATIO OF TD PASSES (scored) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | TD | Run | Pass | Pct |
| Miami | 53 | 8 | 45 | 85% |
| Seattle | 76 | 13 | 63 | 83% |
| Houston | 63 | 14 | 49 | 78% |
| Tampa Bay | 73 | 17 | 55 | 75% |
| Cincinnati | 64 | 16 | 48 | 75% |
| Philadelphia | 76 | 18 | 57 | 75% |
| Kansas City | 90 | 23 | 67 | 74% |
| NY Giants | 51 | 14 | 37 | 73% |
| Detroit | 65 | 18 | 47 | 72% |
| LA Chargers | 78 | 21 | 56 | 72% |
| Indianapolis | 63 | 18 | 45 | 71% |
| Arizona | 47 | 14 | 33 | 70% |
| Minnesota | 69 | 21 | 48 | 70% |
| Atlanta | 67 | 20 | 46 | 69% |
| Green Bay | 68 | 22 | 46 | 68% |
| Pittsburgh | 83 | 27 | 56 | 67% |
| Oakland | 58 | 19 | 39 | 67% |
| Washington | 61 | 21 | 40 | 66% |
| New England | 83 | 31 | 52 | 63% |
| San Francisco | 56 | 21 | 35 | 63% |
| Carolina | 74 | 28 | 46 | 62% |
| LA Rams | 89 | 34 | 55 | 62% |
| NY Jets | 51 | 20 | 31 | 61% |
| Chicago | 61 | 24 | 37 | 61% |
| Cleveland | 59 | 24 | 35 | 59% |
| Jacksonville | 59 | 24 | 35 | 59% |
| Denver | 58 | 24 | 34 | 59% |
| New Orleans | 95 | 42 | 53 | 56% |
| Dallas | 65 | 29 | 36 | 55% |
| Baltimore | 64 | 29 | 34 | 53% |
| Buffalo | 46 | 21 | 24 | 52% |
| Tennessee | 54 | 26 | 28 | 52% |
The Patriots, meanwhile, are just the opposite. They have allowed 23 TD passes but just 5 TD runs. They want to make you throw it when you’re in the red zone. And like the Dolphins, they were just the same in 2017 – 24 TD passes versus only 6 TD runs.
Over the last two years, the Patriots have had the most pass-heavy scoring defense.
The Dolphins have scored 5 TDs in their last five games against New England. All have come on passes.
I’m figuring that their (hopefully) 2 TDs on Sunday will come on passes, and that Stills will get his hands on one of them. He’s scored 5 TDs in 11 games this year. In the 2016-17 seasons, he scored 15 TDs in 32 games.
| RATIO OF TD PASSES (allowed) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | TD | Run | Pass | Pct |
| New England | 58 | 11 | 47 | 81% |
| Tennessee | 56 | 13 | 43 | 77% |
| Carolina | 68 | 16 | 52 | 76% |
| Dallas | 58 | 14 | 44 | 76% |
| Denver | 67 | 17 | 50 | 75% |
| Chicago | 54 | 14 | 39 | 72% |
| Houston | 70 | 20 | 50 | 71% |
| San Francisco | 76 | 22 | 54 | 71% |
| Philadelphia | 58 | 17 | 41 | 71% |
| Oakland | 76 | 22 | 53 | 70% |
| Green Bay | 71 | 22 | 49 | 69% |
| NY Giants | 72 | 22 | 49 | 68% |
| New Orleans | 65 | 21 | 44 | 68% |
| Atlanta | 70 | 23 | 47 | 67% |
| LA Rams | 70 | 23 | 47 | 67% |
| Miami | 73 | 23 | 49 | 67% |
| NY Jets | 76 | 24 | 51 | 67% |
| Pittsburgh | 66 | 23 | 43 | 65% |
| Washington | 66 | 23 | 43 | 65% |
| LA Chargers | 54 | 19 | 35 | 65% |
| Indianapolis | 64 | 23 | 41 | 64% |
| Baltimore | 54 | 20 | 34 | 63% |
| Seattle | 62 | 23 | 39 | 63% |
| Jacksonville | 51 | 19 | 32 | 63% |
| Detroit | 74 | 28 | 46 | 62% |
| Cleveland | 76 | 29 | 47 | 62% |
| Cincinnati | 75 | 29 | 46 | 61% |
| Kansas City | 75 | 29 | 46 | 61% |
| Tampa Bay | 82 | 31 | 50 | 61% |
| Minnesota | 46 | 18 | 28 | 61% |
| Arizona | 70 | 29 | 41 | 59% |
| Buffalo | 66 | 34 | 32 | 48% |
—Ian Allan