Two seasons in a row, the Rams have had the league's 3rd-ranked fantasy defense (in a scoring system that awards 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for touchdowns). In those years they ranked 3rd and 5th in takeaways and 15th and 4th in sacks, led by star Aaron Donald (pictured). But that hasn't translated to shutting down opponents.
In NFL terms, the Rams have mostly struggled those same two seasons. In 2017, their defense was just 19th in yards allowed, although a more respectable 12th in points. In 2018, they were again 19th in yards allowed, and just 20th in points allowed. And in both seasons, the best offenses they faced cut them up pretty good.
Including the playoffs, the Rams have played 11 games the last two years against teams ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense (like their upcoming Super Bowl opponent, the 4th-ranked Patriots). Nearly half (five) of those opponents scored over 30 points; three were in the 40s. On average, those foes scored 29 points and 3.4 TDs per game.
| RAMS VS TOP-10 SCORING OFFENSES, 2017-2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Pts | Run | Pass | TDs |
| 2017 | at Jac | 17 | 169 | 241 | 2 |
| 2017 | at Minn | 24 | 171 | 280 | 3 |
| 2017 | NO | 20 | 123 | 246 | 2 |
| 2017 | Phil | 43 | 139 | 333 | 4 |
| 2018 | LAC | 23 | 141 | 226 | 3 |
| 2018 | at Sea | 31 | 190 | 198 | 4 |
| 2018 | at NO | 45 | 141 | 346 | 6 |
| 2018 | Sea | 31 | 273 | 176 | 4 |
| 2018 | KC | 51 | 98 | 478 | 6 |
| 2018 | at Chi | 15 | 194 | 110 | 1 |
| 2019 | at NO | 23 | 48 | 242 | 2 |
| Avg | 29 | 153 | 261 | 3.4 | |
Some of those offenses had poor games against Los Angeles, although New England and Tom Brady have a far superior track record to a couple of them (Jaguars, Bears). But the Saints (twice) and Chargers scored 23 or fewer, if the Rams want to hang their hats on some solid performances.
Most likely, though, the Rams aren't going to shut New England down. They'll need to generate plenty of yards and points themselves to spring the upset.
--Andy Richardson