The Cardinals are on the clock with the top pick in the NFL Draft, and having hired Kliff Kingsbury as head coach, there's some dot-connecting going on these days. Kyler Murray is planning to embark on an NFL career, and Kingsbury said last fall he'd select Murray No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft. Whaddya know: He has his chance.
Kingsbury and the Cardinals have dismissed such speculation ("Josh is our guy," said Kingsbury), and there's no reason to hold Kingsbury to his words at a time where he was just talking up a college player -- with no idea he'd potentially be the guy in the position to draft him. But the talk will no doubt continue anyway. In part because incumbent quarterback Josh Rosen, selected 10th overall just last year, didn't do anything to dispel it as a rookie.
Rosen struggled, and while that's generally true of rookie quarterbacks, the other four first-rounders (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Jackson) all flashed exciting potential. Rosen, working behind maybe the league's worst offensive line in its worst offense, did not.
The table below shows the rookie passing numbers of all first round quarterbacks since 2000. I cropped it at quarterbacks who passed for at least 1,000 yards as rookies -- no need to include guys who rode the bench for all of their first seasons. Debatable what the most important quarterback stat is, but Rosen didn't grade out particularly well in any of them. I chose yards per attempt, telling because it's better to see quarterbacks attempting to push the ball downfield rather than settling for only safe, short completions. And the success rate of those first-rounders tends to bear that out.
Rosen averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt as a rookie, one of the worst numbers in the group. Most -- not all, but most -- of the guys who finished in his area have busted. David Carr, Kyle Boller, Blaine Gabbert, Joey Harrington. Eli Manning has had a nice career. Jared Goff just played in a Super Bowl (but too early to say for sure he'll have a long and successful career). I put the 2018 rookies in bold.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | YdP | YPA | TDP | Int |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 196 | 295 | 66.4 | 2621 | 8.88 | 17 | 11 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 126 | 204 | 61.8 | 1699 | 8.33 | 19 | 8 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 65.6 | 3200 | 8.14 | 20 | 5 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 61.1 | 3440 | 7.93 | 16 | 11 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 60.0 | 4051 | 7.84 | 21 | 17 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 310 | 486 | 63.8 | 3725 | 7.66 | 27 | 14 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 62.2 | 2818 | 7.62 | 19 | 10 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 58.3 | 4042 | 7.56 | 22 | 15 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 81 | 137 | 59.1 | 1001 | 7.31 | 9 | 5 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 64.4 | 2919 | 7.26 | 14 | 12 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 99 | 170 | 58.2 | 1201 | 7.06 | 6 | 3 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 54.1 | 4374 | 6.98 | 23 | 18 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 60.0 | 2971 | 6.94 | 14 | 12 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 239 | 414 | 57.7 | 2865 | 6.92 | 17 | 15 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 58.3 | 3294 | 6.81 | 12 | 13 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 117 | 227 | 51.5 | 1539 | 6.78 | 9 | 8 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 214 | 377 | 56.8 | 2547 | 6.76 | 11 | 12 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 239 | 418 | 57.2 | 2819 | 6.74 | 14 | 16 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 53.8 | 2444 | 6.71 | 12 | 20 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 196 | 330 | 59.4 | 2193 | 6.65 | 7 | 7 |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 57.4 | 3385 | 6.55 | 14 | 17 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 169 | 320 | 52.8 | 2074 | 6.48 | 10 | 12 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 58.8 | 1972 | 6.44 | 11 | 9 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 54.5 | 1855 | 6.40 | 10 | 18 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 54.3 | 1853 | 6.37 | 13 | 13 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 62.4 | 3782 | 6.23 | 16 | 14 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 184 | 357 | 51.5 | 2199 | 6.16 | 12 | 13 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 58.9 | 2908 | 6.12 | 11 | 17 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 53.3 | 2267 | 6.01 | 13 | 20 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 60.0 | 3512 | 5.95 | 18 | 15 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 233 | 444 | 52.5 | 2592 | 5.84 | 9 | 15 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 217 | 393 | 55.2 | 2278 | 5.80 | 11 | 14 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 116 | 224 | 51.8 | 1260 | 5.63 | 7 | 9 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 50.8 | 2214 | 5.36 | 12 | 11 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 215 | 429 | 50.1 | 2294 | 5.35 | 12 | 16 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 112 | 205 | 54.6 | 1089 | 5.31 | 5 | 7 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | 95 | 197 | 48.2 | 1043 | 5.29 | 6 | 9 |
Last preseason, Rosen flashed some potential when he played extensively against New Orleans. He was 10 of 16 for 107 yards and a touchdown, averaging nearly 7 yards per attempt in that one. Goff and Eli Manning were both pretty dreadful as rookies (especially Goff), but were a lot better after that.
But with a new coaching staff in Arizona, it's also one with no ties to Rosen. If Kingsbury watches the tape and decides he's already seen enough of the second-year quarterback, you never know. Some will keep on predicting it right up until it does or doesn't happen.
--Andy Richardson